Pick #1 – San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets
Friday night and plenty of the NBA basketball playoffs second round and does it get much better then this as we set our sights on the San Antonio Spurs (66-24) versus the Houston Rockets (60-29) in what should be a grind it battle in slow versus fast. This bet is favorable from the outset as some books OVER/UNDER line opened at 216.5 and we are now seeing it drop 3 full points to 213.5 over / under line giving us that great initial read as to where the smart money is leaning and the UNDER is looking like the side to take in this contest. Digging through the numbers even more we see that the total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Antonio's last 9 games when playing on the road against Houston so these two teams have a strong history of playing paced down basketball in Houston which should play highly into favor tonight. The season offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 220.49 and 207.58 and we are really looking to the Spurs to make the necessary adjustments on the court to hold the score much closer to the defensive averages which is what they are known for while combined with a road trend to back it up. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 98–80-1 so we should fully expect an extreme regression back to a .500 record making the UNDER play yet another prime value spot to be in. When it comes to pace of play Houston is 3 and San Antonio is 27 and we can fully expect the Spurs to slow this one down to a crawl at home in order to get the win as well as get their confidence back in their style of basketball. We also note that the Rockets are 3 in possessions per game and the Spurs the number 27 team in the league (falling fast) and again we can fully expect the slow paced Spurs to really make a point in this crucial game and that should produce a low scoring affair. The public consensus for this game is 67% in favor of the over so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this one as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 213.5 so a 219.3 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go and despite being off from the computer generated score.
San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets - Western Conference Semifinals - Game 3 - Friday, May 05, 2017 9:30 PM
737 San Antonio Spurs +5 -110 +175
738 Houston Rockets -5 -110 -210
737 San Antonio Spurs Over 213½ -110
738 Houston Rockets Under 213½ -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 213.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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