NBA Picks Friday 5/13/2016 – TOR vs. MIA

Pick #1 – Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat

A game where every possession will matter we have to think the offenses are going to slow down here to assure every bucket and defensive stand counts. A possible elimination game for the Miami Heat they hope to break out of there 4-6 slump over there last 10 while fending off the feisty Raptors who are a strong 7-4 over there last 10 game record. The Miami Heat (54-40) and the Toronto Raptors (63-31) are both playing slow, lock down basketball and were are finally getting a total side that is simply climbed too high for the given conditions. The Heat are reporting Chrish Bosh Luol Deng and Hassan Whiteside on the sidelines and are simply running out of options and opportunities especially when it comes to offense. The Raptors show Jonas Valanciunas out but have a more then capable backup center to take his place. This is a very match up playoff specific condition tonight and we have to feel really good about switching sides from our last game win and taking the UNDER here for the following reasons. The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Toronto's last 13 games. The total has also gone UNDER in 7 of Toronto's last 8 games on the road. Continuing to pile the stats on the total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 10 games. These two teams are known to have slow games as of late and all signs point to that style of play returning tonight. The offensive and defensive combined stats over the last 10 games are 185.7 and 185 respectively so were getting both sides of these telling numbers in our favor. The over/under for this NBA spread total opened at 190 and has since dropped to 189 so we get one of our favorite betting measurements once again moving in our direction. The Raptors won by 8 points last game so Miami will hope to make the necessary adjustments at home to make it a much closer game. The public consensus for this game is at a healthy 57% lean towards our UNDER side so we get yet another angle that is seeing the same things we are. The last playoff game two days ago in Toronto between these two Eastern conference foes resulted in a 99 – 91 win for the Raptors so we have to think the Heat are geared to prove a point and take this one at home with defense. We have to feel great about the UNDER 189 as prior conditions have brought us this value play and this one should bring us home a nice victory against the books.

Game Time:
Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat - Eastern Conference Playoffs Semi-Finals - Game 6 - Friday, May 13, 2016 8:05 PM

Spread:
545 Toronto Raptors +4
546 Miami Heat -4

Total:
545 Toronto Raptors Over 189
546 Miami Heat Under 189

Betting odds provided by 5Dimes

The Pick:
UNDER 189 (2 Units)

As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!

Picks By TexasMatt