Pick #1 – Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors
Not only is it Friday but I am watching baseball as I type this making it yet another great day but tonight we will again focus in on NBA basketball's playoff race and tonight we will target the Miami Heat (38-40) versus the Toronto Raptors (48-31) giving us two teams that are fighting for playoff positioning but on opposite spectrum of the race. This bet is highly appealing upon first glance as some books OVER/UNDER line started at 208.5 and we are now seeing it drop down to a 206 over / under giving us every reason to think the savvy money is siding on the UNDER as the sharper bet. Diving deeper into the stats we note that the total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 9 games on the road and were really looking to the Heat to continue this trend and continue by slowing down the game to get the methodical win. The season offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 209.6 and 205.02 and its the strong defense and slow play that we should fully expect to reign supreme tonight in such a vital game for both squads. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 79–77-1 and this is the perfect game to hit the even mark that we have been working with all season. When it comes to pace of play Miami is 21 and Toronto is 22 and we get two of the slowest squaring up facing an unjustifiably high total. We also note that the Heat are 22 in possessions per game (dropping fast) and the Raptors the number 23 team in the league (also trending way down) and its these teams current playoff run needs that have us in a great position to make this a tight and slow paced affair. The public consensus for this game is 54% in favor of the under so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this one as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 212.1 so a 206 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go despite the AI predictor brain not seeing it the same way.
Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors - Friday, April 07, 2017 7:35 PM
501 Miami Heat +4½ -110 +165
502 Toronto Raptors -4½ -110 -190
501 Miami Heat Over 206 -110
502 Toronto Raptors Under 206 -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 206 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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