Pick #1 – Los Angeles Clippers at Utah Jazz
To say the 1st round of the NBA basketball playoffs have been electrifying so far would be an understatement and this Friday will be no different as the Los Angeles Clippers (53-34) take on the Utah Jazz (54-33) in what is a must win game for the falling Clippers. This pick jumps off the page right off the bat as some books OVER/UNDER line opened at 191.5 and we are now watching as it shoots all the way up to a 194.5 over / under line giving us a great first hint as to where the sharp money is moving and the OVER is starting to reveal itself as the value play. Investigating deeper into the stats we see that the total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Clippers's last 9 games on the road and that the total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games at home making this the perfect spot for a large combined score. The season offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 208.72 and 200.97 and we are in that rare spot that always gets us excited as even just average play easily gets us to the mark we need to hit. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 89–84-1 and even though the mean regression is siding towards the under we still like this value spot given the fact that is now the playoffs where everything is re-setting and the stakes are increasing. When it comes to pace of play Los Angeles is 17 and Utah is 30 and despite being on the slower side of the league this is a unique playoff situation that will call for more offensive production then usual. We also note that the Clippers are 19 in possessions per game and the Utah the number 30 team in the league but once again we are going to trust the data and breakdown which is all pointing to plenty of scoring in this crucial playoff game. The public consensus for this game is 69% in favor of the over so it will be interesting to see where this one lands. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 200.4 so a 194.5 OVER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go and we even get the AI predictor brain on our side for this one.
Los Angeles Clippers at Utah Jazz - Western Conference Playoffs - First Round - Game 6 - Friday, April 28, 2017 10:35 PM
507 Los Angeles Clippers +5½ -110 +200
508 Utah Jazz -5½ -110 -240
507 Los Angeles Clippers Over 194½ -110
508 Utah Jazz Under 194½ -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
OVER 194.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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