NBA Picks Friday 4/21/2017 – BOS vs. CHI

Pick #1 – Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls

The 1st round of the NBA basketball playoffs are in full swing and tonight we target the Boston Celtics (53-31) versus the Chicago Bulls (43-41) and this has to be surprising story so far as the last seed is really giving the first seed a run for there money. This pick lights up the radar from the start as some books OVER/UNDER line opened at 207.5 and we are now seeing it move in a downward direction all the way to a resting spot of 206 over / under line giving us that great opening read as to where the savvy money is moving and the UNDER is starting to open up as the value play. Investigating deeper into the stats we see that the total has gone UNDER in 10 of Boston's last 14 games on the road and that the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games when playing Chicago really highlighting the notion that slow basketball follows when given the game conditions and matchup we are seeing for tonight. The season offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 210.81 and 207.82 and it should be the recent trends that really get us to where we need to go in this one. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 76–88-4 and even though the mean is siding towards the under we still like this value spot given the fact that is now the playoffs where everything is re-setting. When it comes to pace of play Boston is 12 and Chicago is 20 and we can fully expect the Bulls to slow this one down to a crawl on their home court in order to get the win playing their style of ball. We also note that the Celtics are 14 in possessions per game (dropping quickly) and the Bulls the number 20 team in the league and once again the Bulls are one of the slowest teams in the league playing with a lot on the line at home which should easily drive the pace down enough in this one to stay below are mark. The public consensus for this game is 61% in favor of the over so we get that nice public fade we like to have on our side in this one as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 210.6 so a 206 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go despite the AI predictor brain being slightly off from our prediction.

Game Time:
Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls - Eastern Conference Playoffs First Round - Game 3 - Friday, April 21, 2017 7:00 PM

Spread:
715 Boston Celtics -2½ -110 -145
716 Chicago Bulls +2½ -110 +125

Total:
715 Boston Celtics Over 206 -110
716 Chicago Bulls Under 206 -110

Betting odds provided by 5Dimes

The Pick:
UNDER 206 (2 Units)

As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!

Picks By TexasMatt