Pick #1 – Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets
The weekend is finally here and that is great news not only because most of us get a break from but also because it means there will be lots of NBA basketball to watch and relax to as we focus our main interest on the evening to the Boston Celtics (43-25) versus the Brooklyn Nets (13-54) which features two teams headed in drastically opposite directions. This bet is very intriguing upon first look as some books OVER/UNDER line started at 219.5 and we are now seeing it shrink drastically to a mere 215.5 over / under and there rare large swing is a sure sign as to where the smart money is being channeled. Breaking down the contest even further we take note that the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 8 games and that the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn setting up a situation that highly encourages a slower game of basketball. The season offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 213.59 and 219.25 and we are really looking at the loss of Isiah Thomas for Boston to really plunder the offensive performance of the better team. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 67–63-5 and right now we are witnessing the middle regression we know always occurs giving us a key opportunity to grab some of the value while its happening. When it comes to pace of play Boston is 14 and Brooklyn is 1 giving us a situation where we are going to rely heavily on the better team to take control of the game and keep it at the pace they prefer which is a slower style of basketball and especially without their star point guard and scorer on the court. We also note that the Celtics are 14 in possessions per game (dropping drastically) and the Nets the number 1 team in the league (dropping) so here again we get two teams that are clearly playing as fast as they once were providing us a spot where the lines simply have not caught up yet. The public consensus for this game is 56% in favor of the over so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this one as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 214.4 so a 215.5 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go and we even have the AI predictor slightly on our side in this one as well..
Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets - Friday, March 17, 2017 7:35 PM
807 Boston Celtics -8½ -110 -365
808 Brooklyn Nets +8½ -110 +305
807 Boston Celtics Over 215½ -110
808 Brooklyn Nets Under 215½ -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 215.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
Picks By TexasMatt
Help keep the FREE Picks coming. Sign up for an account at one of my recommended sports books.