Pick #1 – Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets
Its basketball mania right now and tonight we get an 8 game NBA basketball slate to pick apart and for this schedule of games we plan to attack the Boston Celtics (41-24) against the Denver Nuggets (29-35) in a battle of two teams on the opposite spectrum of success. This bet has lots of luster and appeal at first glance as some books OVER/UNDER line started as high as a 223.5 and that has now dwindled down to a 221.5 over / under sending of signals of where the smart money is riding. Breaking down the contest even further we take note that the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games and that the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver bringing to light the fact that these two teams are currently play a slower style of basketball at the moment. The season offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 218.36 and 216.69 so we get that oh so rare spot where the averages do not justify the current line which always adds a ton of value to our side. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 71–54-4 so we should fully expect a strong pull back to middle ground which lends itself to a nice UNDER opportunity to be in. When it comes to pace of play Boston is 14 and Denver is 18 giving us a situation where it will be a dominate slower team controlling the game which usually throws the lines off in our favor. We also note that the Celtics are 16 in possessions per game and the Nuggets are the number 9 team in the league (dropping significantly) and we note here that even the faster of the two teams is starting to drop off as the season wears on and we are in a high probability spot to capture this value. The public consensus for this game is 100% in favor of the over so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this one as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 211.4 so a 221.5 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go and we get the final confidence builder with the AI predictor brain also agreeing.
Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets - Friday, March 10, 2017 9:05 PM
511 Boston Celtics -3½ -110 -160
512 Denver Nuggets +3½ -110 +140
511 Boston Celtics Over 221½ -110
512 Denver Nuggets Under 221½ -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 221.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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