Pick #1 – Chicago Bulls at Denver Nuggets
Both these teams are playing mediocre basketball each sporting an identical losing record of 4-6 over the last 10 games. While the Nuggets (19-31) probably have little hope for the playoffs the Bulls (27-21) can make a run and need to start stepping it up quickly. Chicago is dealing with a plethora of injuries to the likes of such key players as Jimmy Butler (knee) Pau Gasol (hand) Nikola Mirotic (appendix) and Joakim Noah (shoulder) so it will be interesting to see how they handle even some of the lesser talented teams in the league going forward. As the Bulls are seeing a lot of injuries down low they are starting to play a more uptempo pace of basketball while Denver has been running and gunning all year. Chicago also has a 15-8 away over/under record while the Nuggets have a 16-8-1 home total over/under record seemingly making this the perfect storm of fast paced basketball. As eye opening as all of the previous data is here is where the numbers start to look extremely appealing. First off the the over/ under total has gone over in 18 of Chicago's last 25 games and has gone over in 10 of Bull's last 12 games on the road. Now these types of lopsided numbers are hard to ignore but it gets even better. In addition to the above highly convincing stats the total has gone over in 8 of Denver's last 12 games as well as going over in 6 of Denver's last 8 games at home. These trends are pretty incredible when you process it. Looking at the offensive and defensive averages of both teams over there last 10 games they merge to equal scores of 203.4 points while giving up 207.8 points. The 207.8 is a key number here as that points allowance gets us easily over where we need to go in this game. One of the most important positive signs we are seeing withing this pick is that it opened at 204.5 and has been doing nothing but nudging up. Its clear where the people that want to make money are taking this NBA over/under total line and that is straight to the over bank. I think the trends are hard to ignore here and this over simply looks too juicy too pass up. With the Nuggets healthy and Bulls wounded and needing to cover by +1.5 we have to think this will be one high flying game.
Lets happily take the over here and trust the numbers to soar over the 205.5 mark.
Friday, February 05, 2016 9:05 PM
867 Chicago Bulls +1½
868 Denver Nuggets -1½
867 Chicago Bulls Over 205.5
868 Denver Nuggets Under 205.5
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
Over 205.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
Picks By TexasMatt
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