Pick #1 – Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets
Some weekend relief is upon us and that means we get to bet on some NBA basketball and tonight we will lay some money on the Cleveland Cavaliers (26-8) versus the Brooklyn Nets (8-26) total which is a tail of the good against the bad. This pick looks juicy from the start as the smart money is already moving this 222 OVER/UNDER down to a 220 over / under giving us a nice hint where this bet shoud be leaning. Breaking down the matchup further we see that the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Brooklyn's last 8 games really highlightingthe fact that the Nets are simply playing slower basketball then the stats are reading. In addition to this the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games so we get two teams going at it that are both playing paced down games right now. The recent offensive and deffensive performance statistics give us averages of 215.38 and 217.30 which almost assures us that the UNDER has the edge and the over would nothing short of a huge anomally. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 37–29-2 so we should fully expect a regression back to the mean towards the UNDER happening soon and this makes it yet another great spot to bet. When it comes to pace of play Cleveland is 17 and Brooklyn is 1 but with Cleveland as a huge favorite and Brooklyn coming off a back to back this should play right into the hands of a slower temp game. We also note that the Cavaliers are 17 in posessions per game (dropping huge) and the Nets are the number 1 team in the league (dropping drastically) so there should be absolutely no absence of a defensive minded pace in this one. The public consensus for this game is 58% in favor of the over so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this one as well. The Nets are dead last in the computer predicated power rankings so this should be complete domination by Cavs where Brooklyn has few offensive solutions leading to a lot of value on the UNDER 220 given all of the above.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets - Friday, January 06, 2017 7:35 PM
505 Cleveland Cavaliers -13½ -110 -1250
506 Brooklyn Nets +13½ -110 +800
505 Cleveland Cavaliers Over 220 -110
506 Brooklyn Nets Under 220 -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 220 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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