Pick #1 – Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors
Last weekend of January 2017 and its the perfect night to take in some NBA basketball and we have our eyes on the Milwaukee Bucks (21-24) versus the Toronto Raptors (28-18) which serves up a nice game where Toronto will be missing one of their best offensive players. This pick starts off very appealing as the sharp money is already moving this 215 OVER/UNDER opening line down to a 213 over / under giving us a strong initial lead on where this bet is headed. Breaking down the matchup further we see that the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 8 games when playing Milwaukee so its nice to get a recent history of slowed down basketball between these two. The recent offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 214.76 and 209.36 and one again we get a high total match up against averages that are not justifiable. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 57–33-1 so we should fully expect a regression back to the mean towards the UNDER happening soon and we always love to wind up in this type of fade spot. When it comes to pace of play Milwaukee is 21 and Toronto is 20 making this UNDER play an extremely nice look as we get an UNDER lean on two teams at the bottom 3rd of the league in offensive prowess. We also note that the Bucks are 21 in possessions per game and the Raptors are the number 20 team in the league so there should be plenty of paced down basketball here. The public consensus for this game is 67% in favor of the over so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this one as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 214 so a 213 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go and AI brain could not agree more.
Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors - Friday, January 27, 2017 7:35 PM
855 Milwaukee Bucks +5 -110 +180
856 Toronto Raptors -5 -110 -220
855 Milwaukee Bucks Over 213 -110
856 Toronto Raptors Under 213 -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 213 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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