Pick #1 – Milwaukee Bucks at Minnesota Timberwolves
The new year is almost here and tonight we get the chance to build a bankroll for 2017 as we look at the NBA basketball game between the Milwaukee Bucks (15-15) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (10-22) which finds two sub par teams facing off. This pick looks appealing from the start as the smart money is already dropping this 210 OVER/UNDER down to a 208.5 over / under giving us a solid opening reason to evaluate this UNDER pick. Breaking down game conditions further we see that the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 9 games so once we again we get a home team playing slowed down basketball that should be able to control the tempo at home. In addition to this the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee so we get a nice historical trend working in our favor as well. The recent offensive and deffensive performance statistics give us averages of 208.75 and 208.24 so its take an unlikely ner perfect offensive game to beat this UNDER. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 34-27-1 so we should fully expect a regression back to the mean towards the UNDER happening soon and we will gladly pick up some of that value tonight. When it comes to pace of play Milwaukee is 19 and Minnesota is 22 and we are really getting the bottom of the ladder from both teams when it comes to ability to score so this UNDER looks very nice. Equally favorable the Bucks are 18 in posessions per game (dropping) and the Timberwolves are the number 23 team in the league (dropping drastically) so there should be absolutely no absence of a slowed down game by the home squad who will get the game at the speed they choose. The public consensus for this game is 75% in favor of the over so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this one as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 207 so a 208.5 UNDER play given all the above looks like the winner we need to take us into a positive mind set and bankroll in the New Year.
Milwaukee Bucks at Minnesota Timberwolves - Friday, December 30, 2016 8:05 PM
709 Milwaukee Bucks +1½ -110 +105
710 Minnesota Timberwolves -1½ -110 -125
709 Milwaukee Bucks Over 208½ -110
710 Minnesota Timberwolves Under 208½ -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 208.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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