Well we did not ring in the New Year with a win the last pick being our first case where are prediction missed the mark by a wide margin. The minute they announced Derrick Favors was not playing the smart money started pouring in on the under and the bet looked from there. A terrible first half by both teams all but sealed are fate putting our first major loss on the books. Utah's next game without Favors went over so we have to think our assessment might have still been okay despite such a lousy result. The good news is that its a New Year and we are still up units on our picks. Like the Kobe Bryant farewell retirement tour its time to get back on the court and showcase our skills. Lets review tonight's New Years day games and see if there is any value to be picked up as we look to get back to our winning ways. Lets start this New Year off right by picking a winner and adding some units to our freshly minted 2016 bankroll. Before we do that though lets have a moment of silence for the NBA All-Star Weekend Shooting Stars Competition. Chris Bosh will not get to try to defend his title for the 4th year in a row as the event is no more. May we all hope that a new and better All-Star event will emerge from these ashes!
Pick #1 – Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat
Since I have been watching this line it has moved a point up which was one of the indicating factors in our last bet on which way the money thought the results would go. It was also a change in injury news that started to create significant line adjustments off the opening number. Here we see the same trend happening again. It was just announced that Deron Williams will be playing tonight and now the line is moving up on the total. Looking at the 195.5 Over/Under we see that the Mavericks have gone over this total in there last five games. While most of those games were without Deron we still have to love the pace of the current Dallas play and have to think Deron will not slow this down. Most likely attributed to the return of Parsons and a coach that is set on reigniting his team the Mavericks seems to be playing with a new confidence. If we look at some of the recent Heat scores we can see they have a real tendency to play at the pace that their opponent dictates. Miami is also fully healthy right now among there stars which is rarity. We can expect the Heat to try and match Dallas new fast play and with all superstars healthy on both sides of ball we should be in for a lot of scoring. 2 out of the last 3 Heat games have gone way over this total as well showcasing a possible new pace of play as well. They even shot over 50% against the Grizzlies tough defense in the first quarter of last game showing they have the firepower to out muscle even the staunchest of defenses. Both teams also score and give up more points then the total combined here which is another great indicator that we have some value on our hands(199.3 points and 196.3 points respectively). With a 3.5 point spread it should be a close battle with lots of scoring down the stretch. All the factors that went against last bet we get to try and counteract here so lets take the over 195.5 and pick up extra spending money for the new year. Here is to hoping to start 2016 on a great note!
Friday, January 01, 2016 7:35 PM
803 Dallas Mavericks +3½
804 Miami Heat -3½
803 Dallas Mavericks Over 195½
804 Miami Heat Under 195½
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
Over 195.5 (1 Unit)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games!
Picks By TexasMatt
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