Pick #1 – San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves
The game were evaluating tonight is the San Diego Padres (55-76) versus the Atlanta Braves (49-83) and its the story of two teams at this point simply playing for pride and bargaining numbers. Were still very interested in this play as we have already noticed that the savvy money is swaying towards the OVER as the opening over/under total line of 8.5 has now moved to 9 giving us a strong indication were on the right track with this selection. Diving right into some of the key numbers for this contest we note that the total has gone OVER in 14 of Atlanta's last 18 games and the total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home, really highlighting the fact that the Braves are simply scoring and being scored on a high rate as late. Even more intriguing we see that the total has gone OVER in 8 of Atlanta's last 12 games when playing San Diego and the total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against San Diego lending even more credence to the fact that would should really being seeing some offense tonight. When these two teams last played yesterday the score was 3-7 giving us every impression that these two teams are having no problem putting up runs as of late. The teams look to keep the offensive highlights coming and the public consensus seems to feel the same way as this MLB total spread is on a favorable 60% push towards the OVER. The San Diego Padres produce 4.31 runs this year and the Atlanta Braves show up with 3.73 (this number has actually been rising as of late) runs on average for the season so getting to the OVER should not be too tough tonight given the way both teams are playing as of late. The park factor for this game is at a not that alluring -95 rating but we get a nice 14 mph but Turner Field has been primed for runs lately so the offense should have no problem continuing. The weather at Turner Field is looking like 92°F, Mostly Sunny , Humidity is 57% and the Wind is ENE 6 mph so should be no problem for the bats to remain hot. Another stat we have to feel solid about that points to the OVER in this contest is the fact that the Braves are dealing with an uncertain relief staff and Jim Johnson is having trouble feeling comfortable as of late. A final and most important point to this pick is the fact that starting pitcher Paul Clemens (R) has been pitching questionable as of late with a 6.75 ERA over the past week. He also just gets lit by right handed hitting giving up a whopping .316 batting average (5/9 RH hitters on Braves tonight) which should make hitting the over that much easier. Also Matt Wisler (L) is not that great against left handed hitting giving up a mediocre .260 batting average so the Padres almost all left handed squad should get some good swings in tonight (6/9 LH hitters on Braves tonight). The computer predicted score for this matchup is 9.1 so hitting the total in this one seems to have all the right factors going for it and we will take the OVER here at 9 and feel great about where this bet should be headed.
San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves - Wednesday, August 31, 2016 7:10 PM
909 San Diego Padres +1½ -165 +132
910 Atlanta Braves -1½ +145 -142
909 San Diego Padres Over 9 -115
910 Atlanta Braves Under 9 -105
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 9 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
Picks By TexasMatt
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