Pick #1 – Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
Two teams fighting for 2nd and more in the AL East lock in tonight as the Boston Red Sox (66-52) take on the Baltimore Orioles (66-52) in a showdown of the indentical records. Alarm bells are already ringing for this one as the smart money has already moved this from a 9 over/under total down a half point to an 8.5 giving us strong hints that this contest should be making its way to the UNDER. Now really opening up the reads we see that the total has gone UNDER in 14 of Boston's last 20 games and the total has gone UNDER in 14 of Boston's last 17 games on the road so its safe to say Boston is going to win with the defense and not the offense down the stretch. In addition to this the total has gone UNDER in 18 of Baltimore's last 25 games and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games at home making this a perfect storm of anemic offenses and trends setting the stage for the UNDER. These two teams played yesterday with a 5-3 result so although close still showed why the runs have been hard to come by for these two teams lately. Both teams look to continue their lockdown piching and defense and the public consensus is on the same side as this MLB total spread is teetering at 68% public money push towards the UNDER. The Boston Red Sox produce 5.49 runs this year and the Baltimore Orioles show up with 4.68 so were really riding recent results to hit this UNDER. The park factor for this game is a not entirely favorable +115 rating but we do get a 14 mph breeze blowing in from left to right which should be huge as far as hindering hits goes. The weather at Camden Yards is looking like 98°F, Mostly Sunny, Humidity is 57% and has a current Wind of W 10 mph so perfect conditions for lockdown pitching. One thing we have to love about this series is that both teams have an elite closing staff so every inning is usually a nightmare for opposing hitters. A final and most important point to this pick is the fact that starting pitcher David Price (L) some of the best he has all year with a low 7 day 3.38 ERA over the past week. Also Dylan Bundy (R) has been incredible over his last seven days sporting a stingy 1.45 ERA. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 8.6 so the line is looking UNDER here at 8.5 which should take us home to victory.
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles - Wednesday, August 17, 2016 7:05 PM
915 Boston Red Sox -1½ +135 -115
916 Baltimore Orioles +1½ -155 +105
915 Boston Red Sox Over 8½ -110
916 Baltimore Orioles Under 8½ -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 8.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
Picks By TexasMatt
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