Pick #1 – New York Mets at Washington Nationals
Tonight we get two teams both playing winning baseball but in a bit of a slide as of late and will look to this game as a chance to get back on track and build some momemtum. The Mets are 4-6 over their last 10 games while the Nationals are playing a more abysmal 3-7 over their last 10 trips to the diamond. The game were selecting tonight is the New York Mets (40-36) versus the Washington Nationals (46-32) who both have a tendancy to produce when Washington is at home. Right off the bat we see one of our favorite indicators moving as the total over/under spread for this MLB game opened at 7.5 and has now moved to 8 which means plenty of sharp money must be piling on the over. Looking inside some of the other key trends we see that the total has gone OVER in 15 of Washington's last 23 games and there is little doubt this year of what National's bats are capable of putting up on any given night. These next numbers show just how great of a matchup specific set we get tonight as the total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing NY Mets and the total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Mets's last 8 games when playing on the road against Washington. These are strong leans towards the OVER that we should really like when it comes to picking our side. Just two nights ago these two teams played an 4-11 so clearly the power for big games against each other is there but the public consensus sits undecided on this MLB total as it sits right in the middle at 50%. The Mets produce 3.61 runs this year and the Nationals show up with 4.59 runs on average for the year so we easily make the OVER here just on averages alone. While the park factor for this game is a middle of the road -98 we get the wind blowing out and great day to play baseball with the weather at Nationals Park looking like 96°F, Mostly Sunny, Wind is NNW 12 mph so perfect conditions for the batters to have great games. Another factor we have to really like that points to the OVER in this one is the fact that the Nationals have been having a questionable bullpen so if the Mets can get through M. Scherzer there could be some serious damage done late in the game. A final and most important point to this pick is the fact that starting pitchers L. Verrett (R) pitchers horribly on the road with his ERA ballooning to 6.41 and also struggles with right handed hitting (6/9 RH hitters on Washington tonight) which should pose problems for him against the Nationals. Also M. Scherzer (R) has posted a 7.50 ERA in the last week, gives up an unorthodox amount of home runs to Mets hitters and struggles with leffties giving the Mets lineup a nice little boost (6/9 LH hitters on New York tonight). The computer predicted score for this matchup is 8.4 so lets roll with the OVER at 8 and hopefully pull out yet another win.
New York Mets at Washington Nationals - Wednesday, June 29, 2016 7:05 PM
955 New York Mets +1½ -115 +189
956 Washington Nationals -1½ -105 -207
955 New York Mets Over 8 -115
956 Washington Nationals Under 8 -105
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
OVER 8 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
Picks By TexasMatt
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