Pick #1 – San Diego Padres at New York Mets
MLB Baseball has been a true pleasure to take in this season thus far and tonight we will be tuning in to the San Diego Padres (16-31) against the New York Mets (19-24) in a matchup that will see two teams who are fighting hard to turn their slow starts around. This bet starts off with all the marks of featuring some value as the opening line on the total of 8.5 has now swung a half point up to a 9 thanks to early smart money action of which we will happily trail. Were getting all the right indicators for this game and that is highlighted by stats such as the total has gone OVER in 8 of NY Mets's last 11 games and the total has gone OVER in 6 of San Diego's last 9 games and the total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Mets's last 6 games when playing at home against San Diego giving us not only a situation specific play but also streaking trends that should more often then get us where we want to be. The public consensus for this game is 69% in favor of the over so it will be interesting to see how this read plays out. San Diego Padres give up 5.36 runs this year per game and the New York Mets surrender 5.58 runs on the year as a per game average so the poor defensive showings of both teams should easily allow us to hit the OVER in this spot. The weather at Citi Field is looking like 66°F, Very cloudy with a Humidity of 73% and Wind that is blowing Northeast at 9 mph giving us a great weather scenario where the hitting should really be able to thrive. Another really favorable part of this OVER bet is the fact that the Padres have a very questionable closing staff which allows room for plenty of late inning runs for the hot Mets bats. One of the best parts of this pick is that we get a Jarred Cosart (R) pitching who gives up a .412 AVG versus lefties (6/9 Mets hitters are lefties). We also get starting pitcher Robert Gsellman (R) pitching who has a 7.41 ERA in May which leaves a lot of runs on table on any given night. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 8.4 so the OVER 9 play gets all the right leans despite being slightly of from the AI predictor and at a +100 juice we should be super happy to grab a bunch value in this spot for all of the reasons above.
San Diego Padres at New York Mets - Wednesday, May 24, 2017 7:10 PM
903 San Diego Padres +1½ -185 +127
904 New York Mets -1½ +160 -137
903 San Diego Padres Over 9 +100
904 New York Mets Under 9 -120
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
OVER 9 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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