Pick #1 – Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
The contest that were looking to grab a win in today is the Toronto Blue Jays (74-56) versus the Baltimore Orioles (71-59) and we get a clash of two teams bound for the roads through the playoffs which could very well lead to more meetings of these two highly offensive clubs. One of our most respected betting indicators starts us off as we notice the over/under total spread for this MLB game opened at 9.5 and has since moved up even higher to a 10 which is a great sign that the smart money is starting to pound a certain side, in this case the OVER. Looking at some of the other essential facts to justify this type of line movement are the facts that the total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games. On top of this the total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games when playing Toronto so we can really start to feel confident about these two teams putting up some runs when facing each other. Both teams will be trying to wrap up the season with a bang heading into the playoffs and the public consensus seems to think each team will continue the hot streaks of offensive power as they have this MLB total spread at staggering 75% rating towards the OVER. The Toronto Blue Jays produce 4.92 runs on the season per game and the Baltimore Orioles output offensively at a rate of 4.73 runs on average for the year and given the way these two teams have been hitting we have to love are chances here. The Park Factor for this game is an alluring +115 rating so the hitters should have no problem moving the ball to the gaps tonight. The weather at Camden Yards is looking like 89°F, Mostly Sunny , Humidity is 62%, Wind is W 5 mph so the bats should have no problem coming to life in this matchup. Another stat we have to feel great about that points to the OVER in this battle of the bats is the fact that the Blue Jays bullpen has been a bit shaky lately so if the Orioles can work past Marco Estrada (R) early there should be plenty of plate opportunities in the later innings. A final and most important point to this pick is the fact that starting pitcher Marco Estrada (R) sports an atrocious ERA of 10.80 over the last week of work and things are not going to get easier. His entire August ERA is not looking much better giving up a robust 6.00 ERA for the entire month. Also Wade Miley (L) has an August ERA of 8.81 and gets roped by right handed hitting to the tune of a .301 batting average (8/9 hitters on Toronto are RH). The computer predicted score for this matchup is 11.8 so we are seemingly getting a ton of value here for all the reasons above making the OVER 10 look incredibly sharp for this pick.
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles - Monday, August 29, 2016 7:05 PM
911 Toronto Blue Jays -1½ +115 -131
912 Baltimore Orioles +1½ -135 +121
911 Toronto Blue Jays Over 10 -110
912 Baltimore Orioles Under 10 -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
OVER 10 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
Picks By TexasMatt
Help keep the FREE Picks coming. Sign up for an account at one of my recommended sports books.