Pick #1 – Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants
The game that is perking our interest on today's card is the Cincinnati Reds (39-60) versus the San Francisco Giants (58-41) which is that tale of team headed to the top and another headed to the bottom. One of our strongest picking parameters starts are lean off as we notice the over/under total spread for this MLB game went from 8 to 8.5 letting us know that plenty of early expert bets have been laid down on the over. Looking at some of the other essential facts to support this directional line change we notice that the total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 9 games on the road. Getting into more situational specifics we see that the total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco and the total has gone OVER in 9 of San Francisco's last 10 games when playing Cincinnati giving us reason to believe these trends will continue based on tonight's head to head. These two teams met up for the first time in awhile last night and were back to the usual OVER antics with game ending up in a 7-5 Reds win so we can expect the superior Giants to make a point with the bats and not let it get away from them like yesterday. The Giants really need to keep their amazing season going and the public consensus seems to think this may revolve around hitting as they have this MLB total spread at a whopping 73% rate towards the OVER. The Cincinnati Reds produce 4.32 runs on the season per game and the San Francisco Giants output offensively at a rate of 4.57 runs on average for the year so this is a rare case where the averages easily tip over the magic mark of 8.5. The weather at AT&T Park is looking like 64°F, Mostly Sunny, Humidity is 87% and a Wind of W 4 – 6 mph blowing out to center so the big bats should keep on producing in this one. Another stat we have to feel happy about that points to the OVER in this battle is the point that the Reds are dealing with a spotty and uncertain bullpen recently so if the Giants can shake up C. Reed (L) early it should get real ugly in terms of runs posted on the scoreboard. A final and most important point to this pick is the fact that starting pitcher C. Reed (L) sports a 4 game season total ERA of 6.75. He also gets lit up by right handed hitting giving up an atrocious .327 batting average (5/9 RH hitters on Giants tonight) which should cause some serious trouble for him. Also M. Cain (R) has a 19.25 ERA in July and gets hurt by left handed hitters to a tune of a .352 season batting average (5/9 LH hitters on Brewers) so this should be a wild one. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 9.1 leaving little doubt where this OVER 8.5 MLB total should be headed.
Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants - Tuesday, July 26, 2016 10:15 PM
907 Cincinnati Reds +1½ -200 +115
908 San Francisco Giants -1½ +170
907 Cincinnati Reds Over 8½ -105
908 San Francisco Giants Under 8½ -115
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
OVER 8.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
Picks By TexasMatt
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