MLB Picks Thursday 7/21/2016 – MIL vs. PIT

Pick #1 – Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates

The contest we are going to go after tonight is the Milwaukee Brewers (40-52) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (48-46) and its a matchup of one team heating up while the other just tries to at least hit .500 ball. This bet is appealing out the gate as the savvy cash has already ticked this opening over/under line from 8.5 to 9 giving us ever reason to believe this line move is a very positive sign to where the outcome of this wager will end up. The value of the bet becomes even more clear once we start to unravel key numbers such as the total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games at home. Even more alluring we also see that the total has gone OVER in 10 of Milwaukee's last 12 games when playing Pittsburgh and the total has gone OVER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games when playing at home against Milwaukee so its clear when these teams meet up the sparks fly. When these two teams played their last game which was yesterday the score was 9-5 so not only will the Pirates be looking for revenge on the scoreboard but it is obvious both teams bats are scorching right now. The Pirates are going to really look to get back into there winning ways after dropping a sluggfest yesterday and the public consensus seems to agree as they have this MLB total spread at a blistering 75% of the vote coming in on the OVER. The Milwaukee Brewers produce 3.98 runs on the season per game and the Pittsburgh Pirates output offensively at a rate of 4.62 runs on average for the year so were right at where we need to be simply on averages alone. The park factor reading for this game is not that impressive at -86 but these two teams having been putting up a potent amount of runs in Steel City over the past few days and with sunny conditions and a nice 4 MPH blowing out to left center and we have to believe the bats will be finding the gaps. The weather at PNC Park is looking like 91°F, Mostly Sunny , Humidity is 45% and with a generous Wind at SW 7 mph which provide plenty of reasons for the batters to be happy. Another stat we have to feel good about that points to the OVER in this contest is the fact that the Brewers have a stable but vulnerable bullpen as of late so if the Pirates can maneuver past M. Garza (R) they should get a lot of favorable batting duels in the later innings. A final and most important point to this pick is the fact that starting pitcher M. Perez (L) has been doing very poor lately sporting an atrocious a 8.80 ERA over the month of July. He also gets absolutely crushed by right handed hitting to the tune of a .375 batting average given up to hitters (6/9 RH hitters on Pirates tonight) which should pose serious issues for him. Also F. Liriano (L) has not done well over the past week sporting a 4.50 ERA and gets tagged by right handed hitters for a .270 batting average (7/9 RH hitters on Brewers). The computer predicted score for this matchup is 8.2 but we have to think it has missed some of the vital variables above and we get to the OVER 9 no problem on this one taking into account the afore mentioned factors.

Game Time:
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates - Thursday, July 21, 2016 7:05 PM

Spread:
955 Milwaukee Brewers +1½ -130 +168
956 Pittsburgh Pirates -1½ +110 -178

Total:
955 Milwaukee Brewers Over 9 -115
956 Pittsburgh Pirates Under 9 -105

Betting odds provided by 5Dimes

The Pick:
OVER 9 (2 Units)

As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!

Picks By TexasMatt