Pick #1 – Cleveland Indians at Oakland Athletics
The contest were attacking to start of the week is the Cleveland Indians (71-51) versus the Oakland Athletics (53-71) and its a set up of two teams headed in opposite playoff directions. We get a very rare circumstance here as the sharp money has already swung the line enough to move it an entire point from an 8.5 over/under MLB total down a 7.5 line giving us a high value opening positional read on the UNDER. Breaking down some of the vital numbers for this game we see that the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games and the total has gone UNDER in 9 of Oakland's last 13 games at home so we get a team and a stadium that has really been stingy with the runs for this one. In addition to this the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games when playing Oakland and the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing on the road against Oakland so we get situational and matchup specific trends in this one that have UNDER written all over them. Both teams will look to continue their stellar pitching and defense but the public consensus does not seem to agree on this one as this MLB total spread is reporting a 70% public money push towards the OVER. The Cleveland Indians produce 5.05 runs this year and the Oakland Athletics show up with 3.99 so this is a very situational and matchup specific play when contemplating the UNDER. The park factor for this game is a highly favorable -87 rating so the pitchers will have lots of extra help from the playing conditions in this one. The weather at Oakland Coliseum is looking like 60°F, Cloudy, Humidity is 88% and Wind is a West-southwest 9 mph so a very nice environment for the bats to get lulled to sleep. A final and most important point to this pick is the fact that starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco (R) has a ridiculous 1.97 ERA this year when pitching on the road. He also just destroys right handed hitting giving up a minuscule 2.11 ERA(5/9 RH hitters on the Nationals). Also Andrew Triggs (R) has been pitching on another level in the last week with a 1.59 ERA. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 8.5 so its all of the factors above that make us confident that 7.5 will not be reached and the UNDER is the ideal play given the evaluated facts.
Cleveland Indians at Oakland Athletics - Monday, August 22, 2016 7:10 PM
961 Cleveland Indians -1½ -105 -165
962 Oakland Athletics +1½ -115 +155
961 Cleveland Indians Over 7½ -105
962 Oakland Athletics Under 7½ -115
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 7.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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