Pick #1 – Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals
Happy 4th of July to everyone! The game were targeting this afternoon is the Pittsburgh Pirates (41-41) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (43-38) who both are in the top of the scoring ranges in the National League this year. Right off the bat (pun intended) we see one of best indicators for results as the smart money has now pushed the total over/under spread for this MLB game from an 8 to an 8.5 giving us every signal that the smart bettors are on the OVER today. Diving right into some of other vital stats we see that the total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games. These next numbers showcase just how great of a matchup specific contest we get today as the total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh and the total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh. These are very enticing draws towards the OVER that we should highly consider when formulating our plays today. Last time these two teams met was June 12th with a final score of 8-3 with Niese also as a pitcher so these teams can clearly put up runs in these scenarios and the public consensus today agrees as this MLB total is peaking at around 65% at the time of writing. The Pittsburgh Pirates produce 4.65 runs this year and the create a nice 5.25 runs on average for the season so we hit the OVER very easily simply on averages run output alone. The park factor for this game is is a not that stellar -90 but we do get a very nice breeze out to left field which should cause trouble for the pitching. The weather at Busch Stadium is looking like 76°F, Mostly Sunny , Humidity is 86% and Wind is NW 9 mph so nice conditions for the bats to come alive. Another factor we have to really like that side with the OVER in this one is the fact that the Cardinals have an extremely volatile bullpen currently so if the Pirates can get through C. Martinez (R) there should be plenty of runs to be had in the later innings. A final and most important point to this pick is the fact that starting pitcher J. Niese (L) is pitching questionably as of late with a 7 day ERA of 7.71 and an on the road ERA of 5.32. He also struggles mightily with right handed hitting (8/9 RH hitters in the Cardinal lineup today) which should pose serious issues for him against St. Louis. Also the Cardinals starting pitcher C. Martinez actually pitches way worse at home with a 3.74 ERA. The combined computer predicted score for this matchup is 9 so lets trust in the OVER at 8.5 and take home a nice victory today.
Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals - Monday, July 04, 2016 2:15 PM
903 Pittsburgh Pirates +1½ -125 +183 Over 8½ +100
904 St. Louis Cardinals -1½ +105 -195 Under 8½ -120
903 Pittsburgh Pirates Over 8½ +100
904 St. Louis Cardinals Under 8½ -120
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
OVER 8.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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