MLB Picks Monday 7/18/2016 – MIN vs. DET

Pick #1 – Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers​

The game were booking our pick on this fine Monday is the Minnesota Twins (33-58) versus the Detroit Tigers (48-44) who are both looking to pick up steam as we start off the second half of the season. Alarm bells are already ringing out the gate for this one as the sharp money has already moved this from a 9.5 over/under total for this MLB all the way up to a 10.5. Moving right into some of the key facts for this game we note that the total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games on the road. In addition to this the total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games at home making this a prime spot to for plenty of runs. When these two teams played their last series together in May in Detroit there was a 8-10 game so these two teams are clearly capable of lighting up the scoreboard when matched up together. The Detroit Tigers look to stay hot with the bats at home and the public consensus seems to feel the same way as this MLB total spread is a very reasonable 63% banking on the OVER as well. The Minnesota Twins produce 4.43 runs this year and the Detroit Tigers show up with 4.75 runs on average for the season so we are already almost hitting exactly where we need to in terms of the OVER. The park factor for this game is a very solid -99 rating and even better there is a 14 MPH wind going out to left center so ideal conditions for baseballs to be flying. The weather at Comerica Park is looking like 98°F, Mostly Sunny , Humidity is 67% and Wind is W 13 mph so ideal conditions for live bats. Another stat we have to feel good about that points to the OVER in this contest is the fact that the Twins have very uncertain bullpen condition so if the Tigers can get through R. Nolasco (R) which should not be a problem then there should be plenty of runs to grab in later innings off the Minnesota relief. A final and most important point to this pick is the fact that starting pitcher R. Nolasco (R) never fares well against Detorit and comes in with a dismal 5.91 ERA on the year. He also struggles mightly with right handed hitting giving up a staggering .320 batting average to hitters (9/9 RH hitters on Detroit tonight) which should pose problems for him against the Tigers. Also M. Boyd (L) does not fare well against right handed hitters either holding a mediocre .267 batting average against (6/9 RH hitters on Twins). The computer predicted score for this matchup is 9.5 so lets feel confident we fall on the other side of this OVER at 10.5 and take home the victory at the books.

Game Time:
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers - Monday, July 18, 2016 7:10 PM

Spread:
911 Minnesota Twins +1½ -145 +131
912 Detroit Tigers -1½ +125 -141

Total:
911 Minnesota Twins Over 10½ -120
912 Detroit Tigers Under 10½ +100

Betting odds provided by 5Dimes

The Pick:
OVER 10.5 (2 Units)

As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!

Picks By TexasMatt