MLB Picks Friday 9/30/2016 – TOR vs. BOS

Pick #1 – Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox

The amount of game line movements today was insane and just because its not the MLB playoffs yet it does not mean we are not getting some playoff like atmosphere going in tonight's pick as we get Toronto Blue Jays (87-72) against the Boston Red Sox (92-67) in an absolute must win for the Jays. This bet has win written all over it as we get the ultra rare 1 point line move from a 9.5 over/under MLB line all the way to a 8.5 price point giving us strong reasons to believe where this UNDER selection may end up. Further dissecting the more critical stats for this highly important matchup we see that the total has gone UNDER in 7 of Toronto's last 8 games and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games on the road giving us a desperate Toronto team not hitting that well. In addition to this we see that the total has gone UNDER in 9 of Boston's last 11 games and that the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games when playing at home against Toronto so we really get two teams both relying on defense to win games while not producing much offense which should again be the case tonight. In a game that has tons of meaning you can best believe Toronto will be throwing everything they got in the way of pitching at Boston which should hold the score low and the public consensus seems to barely agree with this logic in this case as 53% is on the UNDER play at this time of writing. The Toronto Blue Jays produce 4.72 runs this year and the Boston Red Sox output 5.47 runs on the year so its game conditions and situational specifics that get us the win here. The park factor for this game is a tantalizing +101 with a 22 MPH wind blowing in from dead center making it just brutal conditions for the hitters. The weather at Fenway Park is looking like 63°F, Blustery Wind, Humidity is 69% and the Wind is blowing East-northeast 16 mph so nice environment for pitching to put their best foot forward while the hitters should struggle. In other good news the Red Sox has an elite closing staff that simply does not give up much so just another great angle that should sway this on in our favor. A final promising aspect of this pick is that Marco Estrada (R) pitches some of his best ball against the Red Sox with a 3.47 ERA on the year. In other good news starting pitcher Rick Porcello (R) has been just tearing up September with a 2.41 ERA for the month. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 7.3 so the UNDER 8.5 so we have to be feeling really good based on all of the above about the number were getting here.

Game Time:
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox - Friday, September 30, 2016 7:10 PM

Spread:
917 Toronto Blue Jays +1½ -145 +145
918 Boston Red Sox -1½ +125 -155

Total:
917 Toronto Blue Jays Over 8½ -115
918 Boston Red Sox Under 8½ -105

Betting odds provided by 5Dimes

The Pick:
UNDER 8.5 (2 Units)

As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!

Picks By TexasMatt