Pick #1 – Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
The event of focus tonight is the Philadelphia Phillies (69-84) against the New York Mets (81-72) and is must win for the Mets who are currently fighting for there playoff lives against the Cardinals and Giants. This pick has positive signs from the outset as the professional betting sharps have moved the line from a 7.5 over/under MLB betting line up a half point to a 8 giving us every reason to believe the OVER is where the value is at. Further supporting our initial reads we note that the total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia so we get a nice trend in our favor leading into this absolute must win for New York who is sure to produce at home with so much on the line. As one team looks to play spoiler and another hopes to extend there season and the public consensus seems to overwhelming agree as 92% on the OVER in this one as well. The Philadelphia Phillies produce 3.76 runs this year and the New York Mets output 3.95 runs on the year so just based on averages we get right where we need to be. The park factor for this game is a not that helpful -90 but we get a pleasant breeze blowing out to left center so the ball should be acting plenty lively tonight. The weather at Citi Field is looking like 84°F, Partially cloudy, Humidity is 48% and a wind blowing Southwest 4-7 mph so ideal conditions for the bats to light up. Another part of this bet that should get us where we need to be is the fact that the Phillies closing staff is not on the top of their game right now which can allow the Mets to pick up some much needed late runs all of which points to this being an OVER play. The most incredible part of this pick is we get Jeremy Hellickson (R) pitching against a Mets team that has destroyed him this year to the tune of a 6.75 ERA over games (worst out of any opponent). In other good news starting pitcher Gabriel Ynoa (R) has a 7.71 September ERA and gives up over .300 averages to both sides of the plate. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 9.5 so the OVER 8 is really looking solid given all that we have factored in above.
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets - Friday, September 23, 2016 7:10 PM
957 Philadelphia Phillies +1½ -170 +133
958 New York Mets -1½ +150 -143
957 Philadelphia Phillies Over 8 -110
958 New York Mets Under 8 -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
OVER 8 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
Picks By TexasMatt
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