Pick #1 – Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
The scheduled game we are taking in this pick is the Cincinnati Reds (63-86) against the Chicago Cubs (94-55) and its a battle between one of the best in baseball right now versus a team with the winter holidays most likely on their mind. This bet gets us interested out the gate as we note that the professional betting money has been laid heavy on one side taking it from a 10 over/under MLB betting line down a half point to a 9.5 giving us a very strong lead on how this UNDER selection just may play out. Further investigating some of the more vital stats for this matchup we note that the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games on the road highlighting the fact that the bats have simply shaky lately on the road for the Reds. On top of this the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 7 games at home so it really is a perfect storm of two teams playing where they are most comfortable defensively which send in an easy UNDER on this one. Both teams look to continue their focused pitching and fielding and low scoring outputs and the public consensus is right on the fence with this one at 50%. The Cincinnati Reds produce 4.42 runs this year and the Chicago Cubs output 4.93 runs on the year so its another one of those rare cases where the averages do not even add up to the over total. The park factor for this game is a reasonable +105 but it is a hitters park so it will be up a lot to the pitchers for keeping this one low scoring. The weather at Wrigley Field is looking like 87°F, Mostly Sunny, Humidity is 50%, Wind is S 10 mph so a perfect spot for pitching to takeover and keep the bats off their game. Another alluring aspect of this bet is the fact that the Cubs have an absolute Ace closing staff who is gearing up for a huge playoff run which will put late runs on an extra premium tonight. The most incredible part of this pick is we get Jason Hammel (R) pitching against a Cincinnati Reds team he has absolutely crushed this year giving up a 0.00 ERA over 2 wins and 12 innings. In other good news starting pitcher Tim Adleman (R) Pitches better on the road with a nice and tidy 3.91 ERA on the year. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 8.4 so the UNDER 9.5 is really looking solid given all that we have factored in above.
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs - Monday, September 19, 2016 8:05 PM
955 Cincinnati Reds +1½ +105 +210
956 Chicago Cubs -1½ -125 -230
955 Cincinnati Reds Over 9½ -110
956 Chicago Cubs Under 9½ -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 9.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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