Pick #1 – Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals
The game were dissecting tonight is the Atlanta Braves (39-69) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (57-51) and its the tale of one sliding into playoff oblivion while the other fights for their postseason lives. Were excited about this one from the get go as the savvy money has already pile up on the OVER moving this opening 8 over/under total to an 8.5 giving us strong signals were on the right track with this pick. Delving right into some of the key numbers for this contest we note that the total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis's last 8 games and its becoming clear that the bats are coming alive for one of the best home run hitting teams in baseball as the wins become increasingly important down the stretch. When these two teams last played in April the score was 12-7 and 12-2 for the last two times they faced off giving us every impression that are putting up runs is never an issue when these two teams meet further helping are confidence about where this pick is going. The teams look to step it up down the home stretch and the public consensus seems to feel the same way as this MLB total spread is pushing max levels on the leaderboard with an 83% push towards the OVER. The St. Louis Cardinals produce 5.03 runs this year and the Atlanta Braves show up with 3.48 (this number has actually been rising as of late) runs on average for the season so just purely on standard stat alone we get to this OVER no problem. The park factor for this game is at a not that stellar -90 rating but we get a huge 14 mph wind out to right center so should be a prime opportunity for some offensive chaos to ensue. The weather at Bush Stadium is looking like 80°F, Mostly Sunny, Humidity is 71% and the Wind is N 3 mph so should be no problem for the bats to find a groove. Another stat we have to feel solid about that points to the OVER in this contest is the fact that the Braves are dealing with an injured relief staff and while Jim Johnson has been holding it down it will be interesting to see if he can keep it up so we can expect some runs in the later innings here. A final and most important point to this pick is the fact that starting pitcher Joel De La Cruz (R) pitches terribly on the road with a 5.56 ERA. He also just gets lit by left handed hitting giving up a whopping .304 batting average (4/9 LH hitters on Cardinals tonight) which should make hitting the over that much easier. Also Jaime Garcia (L) has been doing terrible as of late giving up an outstanding 16.20 ERA over the last 7 days. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 8.6 so hitting the total in this one seems to have all the right factors going for it and we will take the OVER here at 8.5 and feel great about the value were getting.
Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals - Friday, August 05, 2016 8:15 PM
905 Atlanta Braves +1½ -110 +210
906 St. Louis Cardinals -1½ -110 -230
905 Atlanta Braves Over 8½ +100
906 St. Louis Cardinals Under 8½ -120
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
OVER 8.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
Picks By TexasMatt
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