Pick #1 – San Diego Padres At Los Angeles Dodgers
The game were selecting as a strong play for tonight is the San Diego Padres (38-48) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (48-40) who are certainly two teams that seem to be heating up as we head into the All Star break. Starting off we notice that the smart money seems to be pouring in on the OVER as the total line opened at 7.5 and has already quickly to 8. Looking at some of the more specific key factors of this particular game we note that the total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games. These two teams have been playing a highly offensive style of baseball lately and the public consensus seems to agree with this notion as the MLB total lean is a reasonable and rising 58% on the OVER. The Padres produce 4.45 runs this year and the Dodgers are getting 4.15 runs on average on the year so we are we should be able to hit the OVER on this over/under spread no problem simply on averages alone. While the park factor for this game is not amazing at a -97 rating its so close to the RED numbers we like and has such little breeze that we have to take it as good sign as these two teams are both very comfortable hitting in this park each team being so close to home. The weather at Dodger Stadium is looking like 64°F Mostly Sunny Humidity is 82% and Wind SSW 3 mph so absolute perfect conditions for the bats to find there feel and do some damage on the scoreboard. Another factor we have to really like that points to the OVER in this contest is the fact that the Padres have an uncertain bullpen after trading Fernando Rodney so if the Dodgers can get past A. Cashner (R)which should be fairly easy then there should be plenty of runs to pick up in later innings off the SD relief pitching. A final and most important point to this lean is the fact that starting pitcher A. Cashner (R) is horrible against the Dodgers posting an 11.25 ERA and by far hi worst against any team. He also struggles mightily with right handed hitting giving up a ballooned .305 batting average to hitters (5/9 RH hitters on Dodgers tonight) which should pose issues for him keeping run production down. Also S. Kazmir (L) has not been his usual self as of late posting a 5.40 ERA for the Month of June (has not pitched in July) while allowing more production from right handers also (7/9 RH hitters on Padres). The computer predicted score for this contest is 8.4 so lets stick with the OVER at 8 and feel good about this win coming to fruition.
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers - Friday, July 08, 2016 10:10 PM
911 San Diego Padres +1½ -125 +185
912 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +105 -200
911 San Diego Padres Over 8 +100
912 Los Angeles Dodgers Under 8 -120
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
OVER 8 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
Picks By TexasMatt
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