Pick #1 – Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres
The game that is on the radar for tonight is the Cincinnati Reds (40-61) squaring off against the San Diego Padres (44-58) which are both teams headed in the wrong direction. One of the best indicators to predict outcome leads us right off for this pick as the over/under total spread for this MLB matchup went from 8 to 9 giving us every reason to believe the early savvy bets are all being placed on the OVER. Looking at some of the other vital facts to support this directional line move we notice that the total has gone OVER in 10 of San Diego's last 13 games at home so while not really putting W's in the win column they are putting runs up on the home turf. Delving into more situational specifics we see that the total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati so we are really catching a nice trending wave between two teams here. During a 4 game series last month two of the games went over by a wide margin with one even being 13-0 so there is little doubt these two teams can hit the OVER easily when facing off this year. The Reds are one of the best power hitting teams in the league and the public consensus seems to believe that power will be put to use tonight as they have this MLB total spread at an overwhelming 73% belief in the OVER. The Cincinnati Reds produce 4.33 runs on the season per game and the San Diego Padres output offensively at a rate of 4.44 runs on average per game so we get right where we need to be even if both teams just produce the norm. The weather at Petco Park is forecast at 70°F, Mostly Sunny, Humidity is 84% and Wind NNW 4 mph so should be great game conditions for the big bats to come out. Another stat we have to feel very confident about that points to the OVER in this battle is both the Reds and Padres are dealing with shoty bullpens right now so once the starters are pulled in this one the fireworks on the scoreboard should really go off. A final and very important point to this pick is the fact that starting pitcher B. Finnegan (L) sports a July ERA of 7.80 so clearly not going well for the hurler and we should expect more of the same. He has also given up 21 home runs on the year to right handers so the Padres power should really be able to shine (6/9 RH hitters on Padres tonight). In addition to this starter E. Jackson (R) does not perform well on the road holding a bloated 5.87 ERA when he is away from his friendly confines and gets stung a bit by left handed hitters who post a .250 season batting average against (5/9 LH hitters on the Reds) so there should be plenty of opportunities for the bats to explode. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 7.8 so we have to think it missed some key variables as noted above and lets roll with the OVER 9 for this MLB total pick and hopefully start off the weekend with a win.
Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres - Friday, July 29, 2016 10:40 PM
963 Cincinnati Reds +1½ -220 -104
964 San Diego Padres -1½ +180 -106
963 Cincinnati Reds Over 9 -105
964 San Diego Padres Under 9 -115
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
OVER 9 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
Picks By TexasMatt
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