Pick #1 – Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
The target of our pick tonight will be the Chicago Cubs (57-37) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (40-53) and its a face off of one team that is surging towards th pstseason while the other just tries to pick up any wins they can. This bet is alluring from the start as the smart wagers are moving this opening over/under line from 8.5 to 9 making it clear what side the elite bettors are on. The strength of the bet becomes even more evident once we start to breakdown some of the key numbers such as the fact that total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games on the road so were really banking on the hot team staying hot. When these two teams played their last game a couple months ago the score was 3-5 against some of the better of the teams pitching so runs should be not hard to come by as they meet up two months later. The Cubs really need to keep their amazing season going and the public consensus seems to think this may revolve around pitching as they have this MLB total spread up in the air but still pointing at a 60% rate towards the UNDER. The Milwaukee Brewers produce 3.97 runs on the season per game and the Chicago Cubs output offensively at a rate of 5.13 runs on average for the year so this is a rare case where the averages easily propel us where we need to get. The park factor reading for this game is a very favorable +118 and finally we get a set up where all park conditions will be trending with us. The weather at Miller Park is looking like 87°F, Mostly Sunny , Humidity is 69% and the Wind is WNW 9 mph so absolutely an ideal setting for the ball to fly off the bats and out of the park. Another stat we have to feel happy about that points to the OVER in this battle is the point that the Brewers have deployed a stable but at times shakey bullpen recently so if the Cubs can quickly bypass J. Nelson (R) they should get a lot of favorable hitting opportunities in the later innnings. A final and most important point to this pick is the fact that starting pitcher J. Hammel (R) has been doing very poor lately sporting a poor 7.80 ERA over the month of July. He also gets lit up by left handed hitting giving up a questionable .267 batting average (4/9 RH hitters on Pirates tonight) which should cause some trouble for him. Also J. Nelson (R) gets hurt the most by right handed hitters for a .271 batting average (6/9 RH hitters on Brewers). The computer predicted score for this matchup is 7 but we have to think it has missed some of the essential variables above and we will take the OVER 9 and feel confident in our analysis..
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers - Friday, July 22, 2016 8:10 PM
909 Chicago Cubs -1½ +100 -155
910 Milwaukee Brewers +1½ -120 +145
909 Chicago Cubs Over 9 -110
910 Milwaukee Brewers Under 9 -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
OVER 9 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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