Pick #1 – Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers
The focus of our selection tonight will be the Arizona Diamondbacks (41-57) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (41-55) and its a contest against two teams just trying to find themselves at this point. In a very case we have already seen the opening over/under line move up a full point from 8.5 to 9.5 really emphasizing the fact that the smart money must be just pouring in on the over. The value and validity of the bet becomes even more evident once we start to evaluate some of the key trends such as the fact that the total has gone OVER in 12 of Arizona's last 18 games showing that Arizona might not be winning but they sure are hitting and giving up runs at an alarming rate. Both these teams really need to get back on track with a big win and the public consensus seems to think each is up for the challenge as they have this MLB total line as the highest on the board at an absolutely scorching 86% banked on the OVER as the outcome. The Milwaukee Brewers produce 3.98 runs on the season per game and the Arizona Diamondbacks output offensively at a rate of 4.43 runs on average for the year so we get within less then a run just based on averages alone. The park factor estimate for this matchup is an amazing +118 with an 11 MPH wind blowing out to right which should keep plenty of baseballs in the air and in the gaps that will ultimately lead to runs. The weather at Miller Park is reported as 91°F, Mostly Sunny , Humidity is 54% with a Wind at WNW 6 MPH currently as of this writing so just a dream set up for batters to find their sweet spots. Another stat we have to feel happy about that points to the OVER in this battle is the point that the Diamondbacks have one of the most up in the air bullpens right now so if Milwaukee can move past B. Shipley (R) they should get a lot of favorable hitting opportunities in the later innings. A final and most important point to this pick is the fact that starting pitcher C. Anderson (R) has been doing very poor lately puttering along with a 6.75 ERA over the last week. He also gets lit up by right handed hitting giving up a staggering .333 batting average (7/9 RH hitters on Arizona tonight) which should result in serious problems for the hurler. Also B. Shipley (R) has not even in participated in a MLB game yet as this will he his debut (unimpressive 3.70 ERA) he should get lit up as well. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 8.6 so lets think we get there with only 1 extra run need and all of the great stats above backing us up with this pick at 9.5 on the OVER.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers - Monday, July 25, 2016 7:20 PM
955 Arizona Diamondbacks +1½ -185 +113
956 Milwaukee Brewers -1½ +160 -123
955 Arizona Diamondbacks Over 9½ +100
956 Milwaukee Brewers Under 9½ -120
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
OVER 9.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
Picks By TexasMatt
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