Pick #1 – Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
TGIF and there will be plenty of MLB baseball to kick off the weekend as we set our sights the Colorado Rockies (34-22) versus the San Diego Padres (22-33) pitting a very good team against one that has been playing strikingly better as of late. This pick jumps off the page with all the right signals of a strong bet as the opening line on the total of 8 has now shifted a half point down to an 8 thanks to an early smart money push which we will confidently tail the steam on and grab some nice value on the UNDER play. Were getting all the right indicators for this game and that is highlighted by stats such as the total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego's last 7 games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games at home and the total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego's last 8 games when playing Colorado giving us a very situation specific play as well as nice overall trends that should bring our wager to the winning UNDER side given recent and historical circumstances. The public consensus for this game is 87% in favor of the over so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this one as well. The Colorado Rockies put up 5.04 runs on average this year and the San Diego Padres put up 3.45 runs on average during the year so we will rely on the weak offense of SD and Colorado being in a tough hitters park on the road to get us where we need to go with this pick. The weather at PETCO Park is looking like 80°F, Mostly Sunny with a Humidity of 63%, and Winds blowing at WSW 7 mph giving us a weather scenario where the hitting should really be slowed down given the perfect pitching conditions. Another really favorable part of this UNDER bet is the fact that the Rockies have an elite closing staff which should go along ways towards the later inning runs being shut down. One of the best parts of this pick is that we get a German Marquez (R) pitching who has absolute lock down pitching on the road with a 1.06 ERA. We also get starting pitcher Clayton Richard (L) pitching who has been pitching solid lately with a 4.36 ERA in May giving us two pitchers who should be able to keep the score low enough to hit the UNDER. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 7.5 so the UNDER 7.5 play gets all the right leans while agreeing with the AI predictor and at a price of -105 juice we should be super happy to grab a bunch value in this spot for all of the reasons above.
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres - Friday, June 02, 2017 10:10 PM
963 Colorado Rockies -1½ +140 -114
964 San Diego Padres +1½ -160 +104
963 Colorado Rockies Over 7½ -115
964 San Diego Padres Under 7½ -105
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 7.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
Picks By TexasMatt
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