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Today's FREE Pick

8/27/2014 10:05 PM MLB Baseball 979 Miami Marlins* +143  vs Los Angeles Angels
H Alvarez - R Listed   H Santiago - L Listed
Risking 1.00 To Win 1.43

8/27/2014 10:05 PM Reduced Baseball 979 Miami Marlins/Los Angeles Angels* Under 8 -105 
H Alvarez - R Listed   H Santiago - L Listed
Risking 1.00 To Win 0.95 

We have a great value play here in the rubber match here. We are getting great odds on Miami tonight. They are starting their Ace Henderson Alvarez who comes into this game riding a 4 game win streak and has only lost 2 games out of his last 10 starts. Alvarez has an ERA of 2.57 which has been very consistent all year long.

The Angels counter with Santiago, who comes into this game riding a 4 game losing streak, although he hasn’t pitched poorly, the Angels just haven’t been able to give him much run support, which has been a trend for them since the All Star break.

The total has gone 8 or less in 7 of Santiago’s last 8 starts and it has gone 7 of the last 9 with Alvarez on the mound (not counting the Colorado game for obvious reasons).  I like Miami to win a close on here tonight. 

Lets Get It

Rob

8/12/2014 7:10 PM Reduced Baseball 903 Washington Nationals* -1½ +120  vs New York Mets
D Fister - R Listed   R Montero - R Listed

This one should be a fairly straight forward game for Washington. They are starting one of their Aces in Doug Fister who comes into this game at 11-3 on the year ERA at 2.49 and WHIP at 1.07. He is fresh off a 7-1 win over the Mets last outing where he pitched 7.1 innings of 1 run ball. The Nationals have won 5 of his last 6 starts, and they have won 4 of them by 2 or more runs. The one loss was a 1-2 loss to Philly. Fister’s ERA is down at 1.97 over his last 6 games.

The Mets are starting Montero who they recalled in place of Degrom. So far Montero hasn’t looked good in his 4 starts earlier this season. He has a 5.40 ERA. Reading the reviews I expect the problem with Montero will be pitch control and walks which usually leads to losses.

To make things more one sided the Nationals have 98 runs over 23 games since the All Star break good for 4.26 per game, compare that to the Mets at 77 over 24 games they are averaging only 3.20 per game. With a full run extra per game and a much better pitcher I expect this will be a decisive win for the Nationals.

My math suggests this line should be closer to -105 or -115 on the Run line here, which means we are getting 25-35% on our money. 

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Lets Get It

Rob

7/11/2014 8:05 PM MLB Baseball 921 Los Angeles Angels* -1½ -115  vs Texas Rangers
G Richards - R Listed   N Tepesch - R Listed
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.74 

This one should be a very lopsided game. LA is firing on all cylinders and starting Richards (10-2, 2.71 ERA) is among the AL leaders in wins, ERA, strikeouts (119) and batting average against (.196). LA has scored a total of 65 runs over their last 10 games and they have won 8 of them. Texas is struggling with injuries and is a brutal 1-9 in their last 10 games including an embarrassing 15-6 loss last night.  Tepesch has struggled against strong batting teams, he got lit up by Oakland, Cleveland and Washington, I expect it to happen again tonight. 

Lets Get It

Rob

Posting a Free pick today and tomorrow so be sure to check back. 

5/8/2014 7:35 PM Reduced Hockey 51 Boston Bruins* -127  vs Montreal Canadiens
Risking 1.50 To Win 1.18– Many of you probably already knew this pick was coming… I am not going to rehash all the reasons I like Boston here as I have already sent that out in the series emails. Bottom line is they are the better team and they play their best when they are under pressure. I like them to even things up tonight.

Lets Get It


Rob

We had a fantastic week with the VIP plays this week netting over 13.5 units across all sports.

Sending out a FREE pick today. 

My first play of the day is in the 6pm game

Minnesota Golden Gophers -4 
vs Syracuse Orange +4

+/- 48 

Lines both at -110 from 5Dimes. 

This game is going to feature a matchup between two strong run teams. Minnesota had a great season running the ball. In every win they ran up at least 175 yards on the ground. In their 4 losses they did not cross the 140 yard mark. Facing big teams Minnesota rose to the occasion and beat Northwestern and at the time 24th ranked Nebraska. They did struggle down the stretch losing to a Rose Bowl bound Michigan St team and also a very good Wisconsin team, BUT they kept the games close with strong physical play. 

Syracuse was quite another story. They struggled mightily against their top opponents and even lost to some of the same teams Minnesota defeated in Penn St and Northwestern. Syracuse The closest matchup to Minnesota that Syracuse has faced would be Georgia Tech who also relies on a run attack. Georgia Tech torched Syracuse 56-0. 

I like this game to be won in the trenches and feature both teams trying to establish the run and grind out field position. 

My prediction is 24-16 Minnesota 

My Plays 

4 units Minnesota -4
2 units Under 48 
 
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Lets Get It

Rob