Pick #1 – Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
The game were setting our sights on tonight is the Minnesota Twins (49-72) versus the Kansas City Royals (61-60) and pits one team fighting for their playoff lives while the other is at this point merely playing for pride. We are excited from the start of this bet breakdown as the smart money has already moved this over/under total from 8.5 to 9 giving us a solid first impression that this one is headed to the OVER. Diving right into some of the essential stats for this contest we note that the total has gone OVER in 15 of Minnesota's last 19 games and the total has gone OVER in 10 of Minnesota's last 12 games on the road so its pretty clear the Twins bats are hot. In addition to this the total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games when playing Minnesota. When these two teams played yesterday the score was 1-8 showing these two squads have no problem hitting high totals when battling. Both teams look to continue putting the runs up and the public consensus seems to feel the same in a major way as this MLB total over/under has one of the highest leader board leans we have seen with a 91% push towards the OVER. The Minnesota Twins produce 4.60 runs this year (number is currently trending up) and the Kansas City Royals show up with 3.95 runs on average for the season so we get right near our OVER pick even if the game does a standard run out. The park factor for this game is a not so great -94 rating for this one but we do get an 11 MPH wind out to dead center which should be a big help in moving runners across the plate. The weather at Kauffman Stadium is looking like 86°F, Partially cloudy, Humidity is 67% and a Wind of South 7 mph so very nice conditions for the bats to come alive. Another positive sign we have to feel solid about that points to the OVER in this game is the fact that the Royals are dealing with an injured and depleted relief staff so once the Twins get to the bullpen the scoring floodgates should really open. A final and most important point to this pick is the fact that starting pitcher Jose Berrios (R) has been pitching terrible in August with a 8.31 ERA on the month. He also just gets ripped by right handed hitting giving up a whopping .345 batting average (7/9 RH hitters on Royals tonight) which should make for an uphill battle and plenty of scoring opportunities. Also Edinson Volquez (R) has a bloated august ERA of 6.88 and has not done well against right handers as well serving up a batting average of .280 (6/9 RH hitters on the Twins). The computer predicted score for this matchup is 7.9 so its going be all of the factors mentioned above that we are going to need to rely on when pulling out the OVER 9 here and we have to trust the read given the variables we have in our favor.
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals - Friday, August 19, 2016 8:15 PM
925 Minnesota Twins +1½ -155 +132
926 Kansas City Royals -1½ +135 -142
925 Minnesota Twins Over 9 -125
926 Kansas City Royals Under 9 +105
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
OVER 9 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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