Email: Fri, Sep 5, 2014 at 1:38 PM 9/6/2014 6:30 PM College Football 351 Michigan State* +14 -120 vs Oregon Risking 2.50 To Win 2.08 (Loss) 9/6/2014 6:30 PM Reduced Football 351 Michigan State* +420 vs Oregon Risking 0.50 To Win 2.10 (Loss) This should be the game of the week in CFB. Michigan State is an excellent team and in many ways mirrors the Stanford team that beat Oregon last year. Speaking of last season, Michigan State went 12-1 last year, and having watched the game they lost to Notre Dame, they would have won if not for a few botched calls by the refs, which would have put them at 13-0 and given them a direct line to the National Championship. They have plenty of starters back, Connor Cook is playing solid and the defense is firing on all cylinders. Oregon historically has fits with teams that have defenses like Michigan State. I love the fact that we can get this game up to 14 points at -120 in a game that I see being very close. Oregon just isn't the same team without head coach chip Kelly and looking at how they fell apart at the end of last season, I really don't think they deserve the #3 ranking they currently hold. This one should fall well within the number and I give Michigan State about a 50% change of winning this game in a close one. Note: This line is at +12 on a lot of books right now but sitting at +13.5 on 5Dimes the Money Line spread is even more dramatic it's at +375 on Bet365 but +420 on 5Dimes Reduced. If you don't have a 5Dimes account, I highly recommend you open one for this College Ball Season or you will be leaving a lot of money on the table. Email: Sat, Sep 6, 2014 at 7:57 AM 9/6/2014 1:00 PM Reduced Football 324 Temple* +3 +100 vs Navy Risking 1.00 To Win 1.00 (Loss) 9/6/2014 1:00 PM Reduced Football 324 Temple* +145 vs Navy Risking 1.00 To Win 1.45 (Loss) Short write up here. This one is a very evenly matched game, I really give it a coin flip and I have to take the home team in this kind of situation. Especially when we are getting plus money and 3 points against an option offence 9/6/2014 8:00 PM Reduced Football 377 Virginia Tech* +12 -110 vs Ohio State Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 (WINNER) Ohio St came very close to not covering vs Navy last week and they definitely are not the same team without Braxton Miller. Today they are facing one of the top defenses they will face all year. Look at what Michigan St did to them last, bottom line is they struggle against good strong D ;-). The Hokies are no pushover, looking at their performance all year last year they step up for the big games and play a very solid methodical game on both sides of the ball. The books are being too generous here. I like VA Tech to cover and maybe even make this interesting down the stretch. 9/6/2014 3:30 PM Reduced Football 340 Stanford* -3 -102 vs USC Risking 2.00 To Win 1.96 (Loss) I am adding one more play to today's card. I have to take Stanford at home here. They will be out for revenge after losing the close one to USC last year and i like them to ride the home Field advantage to a win today. Stanford wasn't really tested last week but showed up big with a dominant 45-0 win over UC Davis. The main thing i wanted to see from that game was a commitment to solid defence and we got that. USC got a solid win over a Fresno State team that is lost without Carr. The one thing that i was surprised about was the amount of ground game they went with. I dont see them having the same kind of success with that approach vs Stanford today. Last years matchup between these two could have gone either way but USC got the upper hand. I think this one comes down to who controls the line of scrimmage, which i give the advantage to Stanford. Lets Get It Rob
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Email:Fri, Sep 5, 2014 at 12:22 PM 9/5/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Baseball 923 Seattle Mariners* -1½ -105 vs Texas Rangers H Iwakuma - R Listed S Baker - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.43 (WINNER) 9/5/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Baseball 923 Seattle Mariners* -2½ -150 vs Texas Rangers H Iwakuma - R Listed S Baker - R Listed Risking 0.50 To Win 0.75 (Loss) This is the most lopsided matchup of the day. The Mariners are 1st or 2nd in most statistical categories and the Rangers are 29th... look at Runs allowed seattle is 1st at 3.3, Texas is 29th at 5.0. Hits allowed 1st vs 28th, ERA Seattle 1st at 3.04 and Texas 29th at 4.71. Tonight we have Iwakuma ERA 2.90 vs Scott Baker 5.23. Texas has only scored 9 total runs over their past 6 games. Iwakuma has won 5 in a row, all by 2 or more runs and he has a 1.69 ERA vs Texas. The bottom line is Texas isn't scoring runs and Seattle isn't giving them up. 9/5/2014 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 918 New York Yankees* -122 vs Kansas City Royals for 1st 5 Innings J Shields - R Listed M Pineda - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 0.82 (Loss) 9/5/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Baseball 918 New York Yankees* -1½ +185 vs Kansas City Royals J Shields - R Listed M Pineda - R Listed Risking 0.50 To Win 0.93 (Loss) KC has won 4 in a row to begin this road trip, this is the perfect time for a setback, as they are facing Pineda who owned them last time out. Pineda has been fantastic since returning from injury. His fastball command has been giving opponents fits. Now I am taking the 1st half line for 1 unit as I like the Yankees to have the lead after 5 innings, the Yankees should be able to build a nice lead and I expect them to hang on, but if the game is close I have to give the edge to the KC Bullpen as they have been some of the best in the league this year. Looking at Shields he has been a solid starter for KC but hasn't faired well against the Yankees where he is 9-16 with a 4.33 ERA in 30 career starts. The Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 games as underdogs and they haven't played well vs AL East opponents lately either. Take the Yankees 1st half and put a half unit on the RL. Lets Get It Rob Email: Tue, Sep 2, 2014 at 10:16 AM 9/4/2014 8:00 PM College Football 301 Arizona U* -7 -105 vs Texas San Antonio Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (Loss) + I am going to make an alternate point spread play at -9.5 once the line becomes available. This will be a 1 unit play and we should be getting odds around +140 for it. I will send out the exact pick once the line goes up. If by chance it is not available or you don't have alternate line options, then this is a 3 unit play on Arizona. I am going with a 2 unit play on Arizona here. The Wildcats looked very solid in their first outing vs UNLV where they crushed the Rebels 58-13. Looking at the stats for the game Arizona was very solid on all fronts, Soloman smoked the Rebel defense for 425 yards and the Wildcats put up a total of 787 yards of offense. The defense played a bend don't break game allowing 371 yards but holding the rebels to 13 points. Another very important stat the Wildcats had only 1 turnover in the game which is a key stat in college ball especially early in the season. Texas SA got a big underdog win over Houston winning 27-7 as a +8.5 point dog. When we dig into the game the big difference was the turnover margin, Houston turned the ball over a ridiculous 7 times in the game, 4 interceptions and 3 fumbles. With Arizona's experience I don't see them giving UTSA that kind of turnover advantage in this game. My math shows that this spread should be closer to 14 points, but UTSA got a big boost in their strength due to the bad showing by Houston. Snatch this game up early as I wouldn't be surprised if it moves up closer to game day. Email: Thu, Sep 4, 2014 at 9:21 AM I am sticking with Arizona tonight -7 and I am adding a play on the under. I like this one to be a fairly low scoring game for College ball, somewhere in the 27-16 range for Arizona. I haven't seen the alternate lines posted so we are going to stick with our play on the spread at -7 and I also like the Under tonight so I am adding a unit play there. 9/4/2014 8:00 PM Reduced Football 301 Arizona U/Texas San Antonio* Under 56 -110 Risking 1.00 To Win 0.91 (WINNER) Note: There has been a lot of media hype about UTSA and their performance over Houston last week, i think its overblown and this is a situation where I am fading the public as I have more confidence in the Arizona supporting cast to come up big and get a solid road win here. Lets Get It Rob Email: Wed, Sep 3, 2014 at 2:05 PM 9/3/2014 8:10 PM Reduced Baseball 925 Chicago White Sox/Minnesota Twins* Over 9 -110 J Danks - L Listed T May - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 0.91 (WINNER) Both of these teams are starting fairly weak pitchers tonight, and both teams have been getting themselves into shootouts. The Twins games have averaged 10.8 runs per game over the last 5 and Chicago is right behind at 9.2. With Danks and May starting i expect this one to have some fire works too. Take the over. Lets Get It Rob Email: Tue, Sep 2, 2014 at 11:37 AM 9/2/2014 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 955 Milwaukee Brewers/Chicago Cubs* Under 7 +110 Y Gallardo - R Listed J Arrieta - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.10 (Loss) I am taking the under 7 line here. This game features two excellent pitchers vs two teams who have struggled to put up runs since the AS break. Looking at the Cubs, they are averaging 3.66 runs per game and they are starting Arrieta who seems to have a rough game every once in a while, then rebounds with 3 or 4 very solid outings. He got roughed up for 6 runs over 4 innings in his last game vs the Reds and I expect him to come back focused and determined tonight. The Brewers are averaging 3.87 runs per game which should be less vs a pitcher of Arrieta's caliber, and they are starting Gillardo who has been hot and cold this season but has pitched consistently well when on the road. Looking at his road performances this year he has a 2.39 ERA and a WHIP of 1.10. This should make for a very close game, and I like the total to go under 7 runs. 9/2/2014 10:05 PM MLB Baseball 977 Seattle Mariners* +128 vs Oakland Athletics J Paxton - L Listed S Gray - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.28 (WINNER) After a fantastic start to the year, Sonny Gray hasn't faired so well lately. The As have lost 5 of his last 6 starts and he has carded 4 losses in over those 6 games. Opponents are hitting Gray well and doing it early in the game. Seattle is countering with James Paxton who comes into this game with a 1.83 ERA and having a record of 4-1 on the year. To he has also looked very solid on the road where he has a 1.69 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. This one should be a close game and I will take the plus money payout on the underdog. Lets Get It Rob Email:Sun, Aug 31, 2014 at 10:03 AM 8/31/2014 3:35 PM MLB Baseball 977 Oakland Athletics* +115 vs Los Angeles Angels S Kazmir - L Listed M Shoemaker - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.15 (Loss) Any time we can get Oakland playing with Kazmir starting at plus money it's a solid play. The As are badly outhitting the Angels since the All Star break, so I like Oakland to give the run support to get a plus money win here. Lets Get it Email: Fri, Aug 29, 2014 at 1:58 PM 8/29/2014 10:30 PM Reduced Football 154 Arizona U* -23½ +100 vs UNLV Risking 2.00 To Win 2.00 (WINNER) This one comes down to a couple of factors. First off Arizona was a very good team last year, and they have a lot of returning starters. Arizona had a fantastic finish to their year last year with wins over #5 Oregon and they are up against a UNLV team that has a long history of terrible road performances ATS. Arizona should roll this game tonight, Lay the points and go Wildcats. I am going with BYU -15.5 over UConn for 1 unit (WINNER) Lets Get It Rob Email: Thu, Aug 28, 2014 at 8:52 AM 8/28/2014 8:00 PM Reduced Football 139 Mississippi* -10 -108 vs Boise State Risking 2.00 To Win 1.85 (WINNER) This line has been bouncing back and forth between 10 and 11 so I want to lock it in at 10. Mississippi had a very solid team last year and only lost 5 games, in the toughest conference in College Football. They have a ton of returning starters and a very solid experienced QB in Bo Wallace. They are up against a Broncos team that lost a lot of talent last year including their starting QB who i am sure we all remember from the unfortunate incident at the Hawaii Bowl where the Broncos got pasted by Oregon State. The Rebels will be looking to make a name for themselves this year by getting started with a big win over a previous power house team. Lay the points and take the Rebels. Email: Thu, Aug 28, 2014 at 9:07 AM 8/28/2014 6:00 PM Reduced Football 134 South Carolina* -10 -105 vs Texas A&M Risking 1.50 To Win 1.43 (Loss) I am adding this play to today's card. South Carolina has a very good quality program and an extremely good recruiting program, just look where the #1 overall pick in the NFL draft came from last year. I am going with USC as they have the depth to lose players like Clowney and still put a winning team on the field. I am not as confident that Texas A&M will be anywhere near the team they were last year now that they don't have Mike Evans and Johnny Football. Lay the points and take the Home Team to get a big win tonight. Lets Get It Rob Email: Wed, Aug 27, 2014 at 12:03 PM 8/27/2014 10:05 PM MLB Baseball 979 Miami Marlins* +143 vs Los Angeles Angels H Alvarez - R Listed H Santiago - L Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.43 (Loss) 8/27/2014 10:05 PM Reduced Baseball 979 Miami Marlins/Los Angeles Angels* Under 8 -105 H Alvarez - R Listed H Santiago - L Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 0.95 (WINNER) We have a great value play here in the rubber match here. We are getting great odds on Miami tonight. They are starting their Ace Henderson Alvarez who comes into this game riding a 4 game win streak and has only lost 2 games out of his last 10 starts. Alvarez has an ERA of 2.57 which has been very consistent all year long. The Angels counter with Santiago, who comes into this game riding a 4 game losing streak, although he hasn't pitched poorly, the Angels just haven't been able to give him much run support, which has been a trend for them since the All Star break. The total has gone 8 or less in 7 of Santiago's last 8 starts and it has gone 7 of the last 9 with Alvarez on the mound (not counting the Colorado game for obvious reasons). I like Miami to win a close on here tonight. 8/27/2014 9:40 PM Reduced Baseball 961 Los Angeles Dodgers* -1½ -125 vs Arizona Diamondbacks C Kershaw - L Listed W Miley - L Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.20 (WINNER) 8/27/2014 9:40 PM Reduced Baseball 961 Los Angeles Dodgers/Arizona Diamondbacks* Under 7 -105 C Kershaw - L Listed W Miley - L Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 0.95 (WINNER) Kershaw will be out looking for redemption tonight after his last outing in Phoenix was a disaster where he got lit up for 7 runs over 1.2 innings. I don't see that happening again tonight as Kershaw has been lights out for opposing teams since that game. Looking at his last 17 starts since that game vs Arizona Kershaw hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of them and has an Average of .157. The only way I see this game going over is if LA Blows Arizona out. So with that we are making a middle bet. Take LA -1.5 for 1.5 units and go with the Under for 1 unit. I like this to be a 4-1 or 4-0 type game. 8/27/2014 8:10 PM Reduced Baseball 977 Oakland Athletics* -1½ -105 vs Houston Astros D Pomeranz - L Listed B Peacock - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.43 (Loss) Oakland has made a living out of bouncing back off a loss this year. Tonight they are starting a better pitcher with a better record and they outrank Houston in almost every statistical category, including scoring on average 4.8 runs per game compared to Houston's 4.0. Pomeranz has a 2.91 ERA vs Peacock at 5.3. On top of that Pomeranz is even better on the road at 1.65 ERA and Peacock has been ice cold recently with a 6.98 ERA in August. He did get a win in his last outing vs Cleveland, but I don't see him backing it up with another one tonight vs an Oakland team in the running for 1st in the AL. Lets Get It Rob Email: Tue, Aug 26, 2014 at 2:22 PM 8/26/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Baseball 916 Toronto Blue Jays* -1½ +145 vs Boston Red Sox R De La Rosa - R Listed R Dickey - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.45 (Loss) Toronto needs this win badly and I like them to bounce back vs a struggling Boston team. Toronto is also starting RA Dickey who dominated Boston last time they played, where the Jays won 14-1. Toronto is 5.5 games out of a playoff spot at the moment and the buzz around the city is that they need to get a big win tonight. I cant justify make a play on the ML as the odds are terrible at -145 but its worth backing them for a unit on the Run line at home. 8/26/2014 10:10 PM Reduced Baseball 928 Seattle Mariners* -1½ +115 vs Texas Rangers N Martinez - R Listed J Paxton - L Listed Risking 2.00 To Win 2.30 (WINNER) This matchup clearly favors the Mariners. They dropped one last night but I am still confident that they have the far better team and will bounce back strong today. The trend is still by far in our favor to get a 2 run or more win tonight. Especially with a lopsided pitching matcup like Martinez 5.13 vs Paxton 2.20. Looking at their recent performance its even worse, Martinez is 5.32 in August vs Paxton at 2.18 ERA. I really don't see the Mariners having two off days in a row. Make the come back play on the run line here tonight. Lets Get It Rob |
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