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Fri, Nov 28, 2014 at 4:38 PM

11/30/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 456 Buffalo Bills* -3 -120  vs Cleveland Browns
Risking 4.00 To Win 3.33 (WINNER)

I am making a rare 4 unit play on the Bills this week. This is just a really good spot for Buffalo, they come back home after having to play the game at Ford Field. The home town crowed has been through a disaster recently with all the snow and emergencies that created. The team will be extra extra motivated to get a win for the city. I am sure its going to be a sellout. Also if by chance there is snow, I like Buffalos chances even better with Orton’s passing attack. On top of that Buffalo clearly has the better defense, and I think Cleveland is due for a loss, after they squeaked by Atlanta last week. This is a huge home field motivation factor game. The home team tends to pull it out when this type of thing happens. Make the big play on Buffalo and lock it in now, as this line will keep moving. 

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Tue, Nov 25, 2014 at 11:02 AM

11/30/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 459 New York Giants* -2½ -110  vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Risking 3.00 To Win 2.73 (Loss)

This line opened at -1 which was way off in my opinion. The Giants looked very solid on Sunday night and nearly beat the Cowboys. I think this line will keep moving to at least 3 maybe 3.5 by kickoff. Lock it in now.

Teaser- ties reduce - NFL sides 6 pts -110

11/27/2014 12:30 PM NFL Football 306 Detroit Lions* -1  vs Chicago Bears
11/30/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 464 St. Louis Rams* -1  vs Oakland Raiders
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 (WINNER)

Key here is to get both of these teasers down to 1 point. Use a 6.5 point teaser if you have to in order to get Detroit down to 1.

I think Detroit will play this one tight, but score just enough points to get the win. Chicago will play very hard today as this is one of the biggest games they have left this year. Oakland left it all out on the feild last week, I think they come out flat in a nothing game vs St Louis. 

Teaser - ties win - NFL sides 6½ pts -128

11/30/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 453 Tennessee Titans* +14  vs Houston Texans
11/30/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 465 New Orleans Saints* +10½  vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.56 (Loss)

Teasing up the points here on two teams that I think are way undervalued. The key with this one is to make sure you get it up to +14 on the Titans.

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Sun, Nov 30, 2014 at 12:16 PM

11/30/2014 8:30 PM Reduced Football 474 Kansas City Chiefs* -1 -105  vs Denver Broncos
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (Loss)

I think the Chiefs are going to show up big time tonight in prime time at home. The crowed is going to make things very difficult on Manning, he struggles to audible when its as noisy as it will be at arrowhead. I think this one is going to be a close game, and the difference is going to be how banged up Denver is on offence. Payton just doesn't have all his weapons, and I think they struggle tonight. 

Lets Get It

Rob

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Sat, Nov 29, 2014 at 8:31 AM

11/29/2014 12:00 PM Reduced Football 345 Michigan/Ohio State* Over 54 -108
Risking 2.00 to win 1.85 at -108 (WINNER)

This is one of the biggest rivalry games in College football and I really think this total is set way too low. They opened it at 51.5 its been climbing ever since, I like Michigan to put up some points, probably in the 1st half before Ohio State pulls away for a comfortable Win. 

I will be sending another email with the rest of the picks shortly. 

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Sat, Nov 29, 2014 at 9:35 AM

11/29/2014 3:30 PM College Football 389 Baylor/Texas Tech* Over 17½ -120  for 1st Quarter 
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.67 (Loss)

11/29/2014 3:30 PM College Football 389 Baylor* Over 28 -105  vs Texas Tech for 1st Half 
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (WINNER)

I am going with over in the 1st quarter here and I am also taking Baylor to score over 28 points in the 1st half. I like the over in this one too, but I really don’t know how much Texas Tech is going to score on the Bears, I do know that Baylor is looking for style points, and they always start fast, especially against a very bad defense. This game is on a neutral field at Cowboys stadium indoors, so scoring conditions will be idea. Baylor needs to impress, and rival TCU put up 82 on these red raiders. If you can’t play the first quarter and half plays take the over79 as I like that too.

11/29/2014 3:30 PM Reduced Football 419 Mississippi State* -3 -102  vs Mississippi
Risking 1.00 To Win 0.98 (Loss)

This is only a 1 unit play as it’s my least confident play of the day. But as it’s a prime time game I want to send out my pick for the game.

Ole Miss has been struggling mightily since beating Alabama. They are banged up and don’t have the same offense they did a few weeks ago. Bo Wallace has been struggling to find anyone to pass to and it’s leading to turnovers. You know the crowed is going to be up for this one, but I just cant see Mississippi keeping up with MSST.

11/29/2014 4:00 PM Reduced Football 394 Kansas State* -26½ -105  vs Kansas
Risking 3.00 To Win 2.86 (WINNER)

When Kansas goes on the road they struggle this year. Looking at past results against high scoring teams on the road hasn’t been pretty. 41-3 vs Duke, 60-14 vs Baylor and 44-7 last week vs Oklahoma. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another ugly day today, somewhere in the neighborhood of 41-7. Play Kansas State in this one.

Double Result Bet Florida to win 1st Half  Florida State to Win the Game +700
Risking 1.00 to Win 7.00 (Loss)

This is a prop bet. I have to take a shot here on this one, Florida State has the talent to win this game by a margin, but they always seem to struggle in the 1st half, and with the odds at +700 on this one its well worth the risk.

Lets Get It

Rob

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Fri, Nov 28, 2014 at 7:44 AM

11/28/2014 2:30 PM Reduced Football 338 UCLA* -6 -105  vs Stanford
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (Loss)
 
NOTE I am upping this one to a 3 unit play for VIP clients.

Stanford has owned this match-up in recent years, but this year is a different Cardinal team. They don't have the same defense they have in past years, especially in the secondary where I think UCLA is going to be able to exploit them for some big plays. UCLA routed USC last weekend, a team that plays a very similar style to Stanford, and I think the Bruins are hitting their stride at the right time this year. UCLA wins by 7 or more. 
 
Additional Notes for VIP clients
Stanford doesn’t have the top running back this year as Gaffney is now a New England Patriot. Their top offensive player is Ty Montgomery and he will not be playing this week. They are in a bad spot here on the road. UCLA is finally proving to be the team that we expected them to be at the beginning of the year. This has always been a tough game for them and i think they get their revenge this year. I really like UCLA to win this one by about 10-14 points. My prediction 34-17

Lets Get It

Rob

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Thu, Nov 27, 2014 at 12:40 PM

11/27/2014 4:30 PM Reduced Football 307 Philadelphia Eagles/Dallas Cowboys* Over 55½ -109 
Risking 1.50 To Win 1.38 (Loss)

Both of these teams have been putting up some serious points, and given that this is a prime time game, I like the chances of this one being another very high scoring game. The total has been bet up a bit, since opening at 54. I think this really comes down to how many points Philly puts up. They have been inconsistent on the road, and you never know which Sanchez is going to show up. I am willing to go with a 1.5 unit play on the game as the Overs have been such a good bet this year in prime time, and I like the Cowboys to put up about 31 points in this one.

11/27/2014 8:30 PM Reduced Football 310 San Francisco 49ers* -2 -105  vs Seattle Seahawks
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (Loss)

We got a big win with Seattle last week when they were playing at home, now they are on the road on a short week of rest, I just don’t like the spot they are in here. I also think San Fran is going to show up big on defense in this prime time game. If this was not a prime time game I would be all over the under, but prime time games seem to end up with higher totals as offensive coordinators pull out a few extra big plays to impress under the national spotlight, so I am staying away from the total. The ticket count is split almost dead even at 50-50 but we have seen a bit of a line move towards San Fran, which means there is some sharp action on the 49ers. Lay the 2 points, I like this one to be a close game, and Ill side with the home team.

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Wed, Nov 26, 2014 at 2:39 PM

11/26/2014 9:05 PM Reduced Hockey 66 Colorado Avalanche* +168  vs Chicago Blackhawks
Risking 1.00 To Win 1.68 (Loss)

The Blackhawks are a very good team but there is no way they should be giving up this kind of money line on the road. The value here is clearly on the home dog.

11/26/2014 7:35 PM Reduced Hockey 57 Toronto Maple Leafs/Pittsburgh Penguins* Over 5½ -112 
Risking 1.50 To Win 1.34 (WINNER)

I really expected this line to open at 6, these are two of the top 4 highest scoring teams in the league, Pittsburgh comes into this game with 70 goals and Toronto with 67. Toronto is also allowing almost 3 goals per game. They seem to be one of those teams that either wins or gets blown out, I can see them getting blown out tonight, but this is the third game between these two this year, and its hard for a team to go 3-0 against any other team in the NHL. I like the over best here. 

We will have a full lineup of football action coming out tomorrow morning for the thanksgiving day games. 

Lets Get It

Rob

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Tue, Nov 25, 2014 at 11:02 AM

11/25/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Basketball 502 Washington Wizards* -4½ -105  vs Atlanta Hawks
Risking 1.50 To Win 1.43 (Loss)

Not a whole lot on today. I am going with 1 play on the Wizards. This is a solid trend play. The Wizards have been very good both at home and away, while the Hawks have continued last season’s trend of struggling on the road. They have lost 4 of 5 away games including their last road game where they got blown out by Cleveland. Atlanta is coming off a home win to Detroit, so I don’t think this game looks like anything special on their calendar. Washington has been rolling and I like them to get another win and cover tonight.

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Mon, Nov 24, 2014 at 1:57 PM

11/24/2014 8:30 PM Reduced Football 278 New Orleans Saints* -2½ -110  vs Baltimore Ravens
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 (Loss)

11/24/2014 8:30 PM Reduced Football 278 New Orleans Saints* -6½  +175 vs Baltimore Ravens
Risking 1.00 To Win 1.75 (Loss)

I am coming right back with the Saints this week. If I told you at the beginning of the season that you were getting the saints at -2.5 at home against a 6-4 team that lost to both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh on the road you would be all over it. Well that’s what we have tonight, I do think the Ravens are a good team, but they are not as good on the road as they are at home. The Saints had a crappy week last week, but I really like them to bounce back tonight. They are still one of the best teams in football at home, and I think Baltimore is just an average team on the road. Baltimore only has wins over Tampa and Cleveland (by 2 points) this year. I think the buy week may help them a bit, but I don’t think they will be able to keep up with an angry Saints team at home. I like the Saints to get a big home win by at least 1 touchdown.

11/24/2014 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 707 Phoenix Suns* +145  vs Toronto Raptors for 1st Half 
Risking 1.00 To Win 1.45 (Loss)

This is an interesting spot for the Raptors and Phoenix is a sneaky good team. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Raptors lose this game as it is their3rd game in 4 nights and the Suns come into this game red hot, winning their last 4 games. I will however note that those games were against less competitive teams than the Raps. Phoneix is one of the highest scoring teams in the league and they score a ton of points in the 1st half on the road averaging 56.1 ppg in the 1st half in road games compared to the Raptors 54.2 per game average. I like Phoenix to get another quick start tonight and the Raports to claw their way back into this one as the game wares on.

11/24/2014 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 703 Portland Trail Blazers* -7 -110  vs Philadelphia 76ers for 1st Half 
Risking 1.00 To Win 0.91 (Loss)

I am also going with a 1 unit play on Portland in Philly for the 1st half. Portland is scoring on average 59.5 on the road in the 1st half and they have an average margin of +9.5 on the road at half time against any random team. They are up against the worst team in the league tonight in the 76rs so I think you get the picture. Philly is also averaging only -5 in the 1st half so this one looks like it should be about a 10 point or more lead for the blazers at half time. Philly is averaging 

Lets Get It

Rob

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Sun, Nov 23, 2014 at 9:06 AM

11/23/2014 1:00 PM Reduced Football 262 Houston Texans* -2½ -115  vs Cincinnati Bengals
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.74 (Loss)

I really like that the Texans have moved to Ryan Mallot, I think he is a big upgrade from Fitzpatrick and should give them the boost they need to go on a run. The Texans also have their #1 pick Jadaveon Clowney back in the lineup. I think the stars are aligning for the Texans to make a late season run here. I also really don’t like the spot the Bengals are in. They are on the road after a huge upset in New Orleans, I have to imagine its let down time. 

11/23/2014 4:05 PM Reduced Football 268 Seattle Seahawks* -7 -115  vs Arizona Cardinals
Risking 4.00 To Win 3.48 - Buy a half pt if needed to get to 7 (WINNER)

This is my play of the day. I cant remember the last time the public was taking a road dog in Seattle, but that’s whats happening this week. I know the Seahawks haven’t been as impressive as they were earlier this year, but this is a really big game for them. The Cardinals are the team that beat them on home turf last year and you can bet the Seahwaks will be ready and motivated for revenge. Arizona also hasn’t played that well over the past few weeks, yes they have been getting wins, but I think teams are starting to figure Stanton out and the hawks should be ready to get a W at home today. 

11/23/2014 4:05 PM Reduced Football 270 San Diego Chargers* -5½ -108  vs St. Louis Rams
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.85 (Loss)

This one is pretty simple, the Rams are a streaky team that has a few good games then falls flat on their face. The Chargers have been in a bit of a slide, and have been terrible ATS lately. I think the books have adjusted by about 2 points here to give the charger a good chance at getting a cover this week. Lay the 5.5 here. 

Teaser - ties reduce - NFL sides 6 pts 

11/23/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 256 New England Patriots* -1.5 vs Detroit Lions
11/23/2014 4:25 PM NFL Football 272 Denver Broncos* -½ vs Miami Dolphins
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 (WINNER)

Taking a 6 point teaser with two of my favourite teams to win at home. We cross all of the key numbers here and this one gives us great value on these two games. 

Note- if your book doesn’t allow teasers you could also money-line parlay these to for basically the same odds. 

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Thu, Nov 20, 2014 at 7:32 AM

11/22/2014 7:30 PM College Football 174 Baylor* -28 -120  vs Oklahoma State
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.67 (WINNER)

Looks like Oklahoma State will be without starting QB Daxx Garman due to concussion symptoms. Given that they only managed 3 field goals vs TCU with him, and that Baylor needs to pile up the style points we should have an absolute blowout on our hands here. I am likely going to add some additional action to this game once we get confirmation he will be out. I will probably be taking the alternate spread at around -35 for +200 for another unit. 

Lock this one in now as I think the line will keep moving. 

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Sat, Nov 22, 2014 at 8:10 AM
11/22/2014 12:00 PM Reduced Football 134 Michigan State* -24 -105  vs Rutgers
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (WINNER)

I was worried about Michigan State giving up on the season after the loss to Ohio State but they proved they are still motivated after last weeks convincing win. The Scarlet Knights are no match for a motivated Spartans team. This one should be an easy blowout.

11/22/2014 3:30 PM Reduced Football 153 Boston College* +17 -106  vs Florida State
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.89 (WINNER)

This is an interesting spot for Florida State, they got a big win last week after the vegas books said they would potentially lose, and they got the cover. This week they are a huge favorite vs a Boston College team that nearly beat them last year. I really think this one is going to be closer than the experts think. Take the points.

11/22/2014 12:00 PM College Football 140 Ohio State* Over 51 -110  vs Indiana
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 (Loss)

Ohio State needs this win, and they need the style points. They are up against an Indiana team that hasn’t shown much competitiveness in big games. They shouldn’t have much trouble putting up 52 or 56 in this one.

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Sat, Nov 22, 2014 at 11:25 AM

11/22/2014 3:30 PM Reduced Football 171 Mississippi/Arkansas* Under 46 -105 Risking
2.00 To Win 1.90 (WINNER)

I have a lean towards Arkansas in this game but I like the under better. Both of these teams play solid D and i think this one is going to be another smash mouth game with lots of run plays which will keep the clock moving. Play under 46. 

11/22/2014 3:30 PM Reduced Football 141 Maryland* +205  vs Michigan
Risking 1.00 To Win 2.05 (WINNER)

I am going to fade Michigan one more time this year, even with a few wins under their belt, Im really not sold on this team or their ability to get a win against a decent opponent. Take the underdog for 1 unit. 

11/22/2014 4:00 PM College Football 184 California* +201  vs Stanford
Risking 1.00 To Win 2.01 (Loss)

Going against Stanford again this week, they just haven’t performed this year and I cant imagine the team will travel well after losing to Utah last week. Stanford has had a very disappointing season and I think they are still getting too much respect. I love the spread and taking a sprinkle of the money line.

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Fri, Nov 21, 2014 at 1:29 PM

11/21/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Hockey 4 Pittsburgh Penguins* -1½ +175  vs New York Islanders
Risking 1.00 To Win 1.75 (Loss)

My math shows we have a 42%-50% chance of winning this one based on both teams records thus far this year, which means we should only be getting about +150 on the puck line. Pittsburgh has been outscoring opponents like crazy, they average 3.65 goals per game and have covered the puck line in 10 of their 17 games this year. NY has been up and down, and lost by 2 or more 5 times so far. Important to note that 4 of those 5 losses by 2 or more goals have come on the road. 

11/21/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Hockey 5 Boston Bruins* -117  vs Columbus Blue Jackets
Risking 1.00 To Win 0.85 (WINNER)

11/21/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Hockey 5 Boston Bruins* -1½ +245  vs Columbus Blue Jackets
Risking 1.00 To Win 2.45 (Loss)

We have another system play here on the ML and PL. Boston hasn’t been as explosive as they were last year, but they are still covering the puck line in 35% of their games, combine that with the fact that Columbus is losing 50% of their games by 2 or more and we have another solid statistical puck line play here. Based on the math we should be getting about -140 on the ML and +150 on the Puck line, but we have much better odds so we have another solid play. 

Lets Get It

Rob