Email: Sun, Sep 28, 2014 at 8:06 AM 9/28/2014 1:00 PM Reduced Football 256 Houston Texans* -2½ -110 vs Buffalo Bills Risking 3.00 To Win 2.73 (WINNER) This game has defensive battle written all over it, and I have to take the Texans to bounce back after a bad loss last week. Looking at the matchup, Houstons D matched up much better to the Bills than it did against the Giants. They should be able to slow down the run and the pass rush will get to EJ Manual and probably force at least a turnover. Make a confident play on Houston to win by at least a field goal. Teaser - ties win - NFL sides 6 pts -115 Wager
All 4 of these teams have great defenses, and None of them played very well last week, so I love this play as a Defensive redemption play. NOTE this is a 6 point ties win teaser. These lines are from 5Dimes. 9/28/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 258 Indianapolis Colts* -7 -124 vs Tennessee Titans Risking 2.00 To Win 1.62 Best line at Pinnacle (WINNER) I want to lock this one in early as I think this line will keep moving. Tennessee is likely going to be without Locker this week as he injured his wrist in the game vs the Bengals. I actually think the Colts will matchup with Tennessee much the same as the Bengals did last week. This one could easily be a big blowout. We may add another unit at -9.5 once the alternate lines get released, but lock this in for now. Make sure you get this line at a TD. Email: Sun, Sep 28, 2014 at 12:19 PM 9/28/2014 8:30 PM Reduced Football 271 New Orleans Saints* -3 +107 vs Dallas Cowboys Risking 2.00 To Win 2.14 (Loss) As some of you may know I am a Cowboys fan, but this one comes down to who is the better team. And yes they boys have a couple of wins. But look at the teams they played.... Now they come in confident vs a good saints team that really needs this win and we all know plays best on turf. Fade the boys and lay the 3 pts. Let's get it Rob
0 Comments
Email: Sat, Sep 27, 2014 at 7:42 AM 9/27/2014 12:00 PM Reduced Football 177 Tennessee U* +18½ -105 vs Georgia Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (WINNER) I don't expect Tennessee to have much of a chance of winning this game, but at 18.5 this is an overreaction to Georgia blowing out a very bad Troy team last week. Tennessee competed with Oklahoma, who I think is a better team than Georgia, and if it wasn't for a couple of late turnovers it would have been much closer. This is a classic SEC match-up, these divisional games always end up being closer than expected. I'll take the generous points on the dog. 9/27/2014 3:30 PM Reduced Football 115 Minnesota U* +14 -109 vs Michigan Risking 1.00 To Win 0.91 (WINNER) 9/27/2014 3:30 PM Reduced Football 115 Minnesota U* +435 vs Michigan Risking 1.00 To Win 4.35 (WINNER) I just have to take a shot against Michigan today. Gardner is not a starting quality QB he doesn't make good decisions under pressure and he just keep coughing up the ball. Minnesota is one of the best teams for turnover margin they play solid Defense and I think they have a great chance of beating a Michigan team in free fall. Take the points and take a shot on the money line. Email: Sat, Sep 27, 2014 at 11:14 AM 9/27/2014 3:30 PM Reduced Football 145 Miami Ohio* +220 vs Buffalo U Risking 1.00 To Win 2.20 (Loss) We are getting great odds on the underdog here. This Miami Ohio team hung with Cincinnati for last week and I have to take a shot with the great money line odds on an upset here. 9/27/2014 4:15 PM Reduced Football 173 Stanford/Washington U* Under 48 -105 Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (WINNER) Both of these teams defenses line up perfectly into the others offense. This has historically been a grudge match. I like it to go very similar to the game where Stanford played USC. This one should be close and I like defense to rule the day. 9/27/2014 8:20 PM Reduced Football 119 Baylor* -21 -109 vs Iowa State Risking 2.00 To Win 1.83 (Push) Iowa State is getting a big bump from their win over Iowa, the difference here is that Baylor plays a completely different type of game, there is no way that the Iowa State secondary can keep up with Baylor's speed. This one is another Bears blowout. 9/27/2014 8:00 PM Reduced Football 165 Notre Dame* -8½ -105 vs Syracuse Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (WINNER) I was actually surprised this line wasn't at -10. Notre Dame has been a dominant team on both sides of the ball this year. Teams just haven't been able to score on their defense and I don't see the big Orange doing any better. ND wins by double digits. Email: Sat, Sep 27, 2014 at 11:22 AM 9/27/14 3:00pm Reduced Football 153 Bowling Green -5½ -105* vs Massachusetts Risking 2.00 to Win 1.90 (Loss) Last play of the day is on Bowling Green, they are playing a UMASS team that is just really bad as always. Bowling Green hasnt looked as good as they were last year, but at less than a TD this is a great value play resulting from the pounding they took from Wisconsin last week. Lock it in. Lets Get It Rob Email: Fri, Sep 26, 2014 at 12:27 PM 9/26/2014 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 957 Pittsburgh Pirates* -136 vs Cincinnati Reds V Worley - R Listed M Leake - R Listed Risking 2.00 To Win 1.47 (WINNER) The Pirates have been one of the hottest teams in baseball for the month of September, going 16-4 since September 5th. They currently sit one game back of St Louis for the NL Central. You can bet that they will treat this just like a wild card game, as they try to avoid the dreaded 1 game playoff. They are starting Worley who has been virtually unhittable in September, the Pirates have won his last 4 starts, and he comes into this game with a September ERA of 2.55 and a WHIP of 1.08. He is coming off 8 innings of shutout baseball vs Milwaukee on the 21st and I like him to have another quality start today. The Reds know their season is done, and Leake seems to have packed it in too. His September numbers are awful, for the month thus far he has pitched 21 innings, allowed 29 Hits and 19 runs, his WHIP is 1.68 and his Sept ERA is 7.71. The Pirates have been putting up runs, as evident in last night's 10-1 win over the Braves, they have won 8 of their last 10 including 2 quality wins over Milwaukee, they have worked hard to have a shot at the Division lead and will be motivated and focused tonight. I like them to get the win vs a Reds team that seems to have packed it in. Play the Pirates. Lets Get It Rob Email: Thu, Sep 25, 2014 at 9:21 AM 9/25/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Baseball 916 Detroit Tigers* -1½ -130 vs Minnesota Twins T May - R Listed M Scherzer - R Listed Risking 2.00 To Win 1.54 (WINNER) 9/25/2014 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 915 Minnesota Twins/Detroit Tigers* Over 9 +145 T May - R Listed M Scherzer - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.45 - Note Alternate Over Line (Loss) Ok the odds on this one are not great and I don't usually take a run-line at negative money, but every way I look at this game it has blowout written all over it. The Tigers need this win to keep the Royals at bay, with Max Scherzer starting at home I like their chances. Max is 10-1 at home this year and he is facing May, who has been just terrible on the road with an ERA of 8.55, plus the last time the Tigers faced him they burned him for 5 runs in 5 innings. The only way I see us losing this bet is if the Tigers bullpen blows another save, but to be honest, I think this one will be well out of reach by that point. I also really liked the way the Tigers closed out yesterdays game vs the White Sox, things were close until they knocked out Chris Sale, then they went on to manufacture 5 more runs in the 7th and 8th. The Tigers need this kind of game to firm up things before the playoffs, and this is the type of team that good team bury late in the season. Looking at the over, in Mays 9 starts this year only 1 games has gone under 10 runs. We are getting amazing value on this over, as we have the #1 offense against a pretty bad pitcher. The last time May faced Detroit the score was 8-6 and they will be even more motivated to score today. Note that Scherzer has faced the Twins twice this year and both games have gone over with a total of 14 and 17 runs scored, the Tigers won both and covered the run line in both. Email: Wed, Sep 24, 2014 at 11:03 AM 9/24/2014 10:10 PM Reduced Baseball 964 Los Angeles Dodgers* -1½ +100 vs San Francisco Giants T Hudson - R Listed C Kershaw - L Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.50 (WINNER) This is closing time, and I am putting my money on the best pitcher in baseball. There are a few reasons I like this play today. First, Kershaw didn't have his best stuff in the first inning of his last outing; he RARELY has back to back bad games, meaning he will be focused and ready tonight. Second, this is his opportunity to match his 2011 record of 21 wins, when guys like Kershaw get a chance to match a personal best they usually succeed. Third, the Dodgers have a chance to win their second straight National League West title tonight, and there isn't another guy on that team I would rather have on the mound to do it. Good pitchers only get better in September and October. Looking at the other side, San Fran is starting Tim Hudson, who has been battling a hip injury, and has lost 3 straight starts. This includes the 17-0 slaughtering at the hands of the Dodgers where he was charged for 6 runs and only lasted 1 inning a couple weeks ago. If Hudson were healthy I could see him giving it his all, and keeping this one close, but with a motivated Kershaw, and a struggling San Fran team and aging, injured pitcher. I could go on about the way the stats and situation line up for the Dodgers to get a multi run win here tonight but I think you get the idea. I see the Dodgers rolling this one and locking things up in front of the home fans. Lets Get It Rob Email: Tue, Sep 23, 2014 at 10:11 AM 9/23/2014 7:10 PM Reduced Baseball 905 Milwaukee Brewers/Cincinnati Reds* Under 6½ -120 M Fiers - R Listed J Cueto - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.25 (WINNER) 9/23/2014 7:10 PM Reduced Baseball 905 Milwaukee Brewers/Cincinnati Reds* Under 5 +190 M Fiers - R Listed J Cueto - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.90 (WINNER) I am splitting the bet here. I like this to be a very defensive and low scoring game, could very well be a 1-0 or 2-1 game with these two pitchers facing off. Both Fiers and Cueto have been lights out this year and should look to close out the season strong. Both teams are basically eliminated, but I could see the Brewers wanting to put on a strong showing to keep their slim hopes alive for another day. Neither team has been prolific at the plate this year, the Reds are averaging 3.7 runs per game, Brewers are better at 4.1. Looking at recent stats, the Reds have scored 13 runs over their past 4 games for an average of only 2.6, and 7 of those came in 1 game vs St. Louis, they are really averaging more like 1 or 2 runs per game, and against a pitcher like Fiers I thing that should hold tonight. The Brewers have had 5 straight go under the total and they have scored a total of only 5 runs over those games, while being shut out twice. This one looks like a pitcher's duel through and through. Make a strong play on the under. Note: You can get the under 5 line at Bet365. If you can't get it on your book just stick with a 2.5 unit bet on the under 6.5. Lets Get It Rob Email: Mon, Sep 22, 2014 at 12:19 PM 9/22/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Baseball 953 St. Louis Cardinals* -1½ -110 vs Chicago Cubs A Wainwright - R Listed T Wood - L Listed Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 (WINNER) This one should be pretty straight forward, we are coming right back with the Cardinals, after last nights loss they will look to get back in the win column, they shouldn't have to deal with using more than one closer tonight, if any, as Wainwritght usually goes the distance. Wainwright is also clutch down the stretch, the Cards have won his last 4 starts, and covered the run line in each of them. He is actually even better on the road this year where his ERA drops from 2.45 to 1.82 with a WHIP of 0.99. The Cubs are starting Wood who comes into this game 4.82 ERA (4.27 at Home) he faced St Louis a few games ago and got beat up pretty bad only lasting 4.2 inning and giving up 4 runs on 5 hits on route to a 6-9 loss. Lock it in Let's Get It Rob Email: Tue, Sep 16, 2014 at 3:31 PM Lock this one in now as I am already seeing the line on the Atlanta game start to move. Teaser: Football Mixed 2 Team 6 Pt Teaser (-110) Selection : 1 NFL Football for Game Atlanta Falcons 18-September-2014 5:25 PM PST Handicap pk for Game Selection : 2 NFL Football for Game Kansas City Chiefs 21-September-2014 1:25 PM PST Handicap +10.5 for Game Risking 2.00 to Win 1.82 (WINNER) Just to confirm we are using a 6 point teaser to get Atlanta at a PK and we are getting Kansas City up to +10.5. This is a great teaser, it crosses a bunch of key numbers on both sides and looking at the match ups I really like how both Atlanta and KC look this week. Lock it in now before the line moves. FYI this line is from Pinnacle. Email: Fri, Sep 19, 2014 at 4:26 PM Teaser - ties reduce - NFL sides 6 pts Wager
This one crosses a slew of key number for Washington, I actually think Washington has a very good chance of winning this game, give me 13 points and I say we have over an 80% chance of a win here, Kirk Cousins is actually the better quarterback, I just don't think the public realizes this yet. I am also huge on the Washington Defense this year, another thing that not many people have caught onto yet. Philly has one of the worst home field advantages in all of the NFL, and they are coming off 2 games where the made up some serious ground on teams that didn't have very strong D, Washington is 3rd against the pass and 4th against the rush, this isn't going to be an easy game. Looking at the other game I am on both Buffalo to win (Below) and the under 52. This is let down time for San Diego, they just got a huge win vs Seattle and they are now doing the dreaded West to East 1PM game. San Diego doesnt travel well to the East coast and I still think Buffalo is an way better team than the public gives them credit for. 9/21/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 452 Buffalo Bills* -2½ -110 vs San Diego Chargers Risking 2.00 To Win 2.00 (Loss) Going with Buffalo to get one more home game win before they head out on the road here. This is a classic let down game for the Chargers on the road after beating the defending superbowl champs. Its gonna be a grind getting up for a 10am game on the road in the rain this week, take the home team Email: Sun, Sep 21, 2014 at 8:48 AM 9/21/2014 1:00 PM Reduced Football 460 New Orleans Saints* -10 +100 vs Minnesota Vikings Risking 2.00 To Win 2.00 (WINNER) This one has blowout written all over it. The Saints need this win bad, and the Vikings are falling apart without Palmer or Peterson. The Saints have one of the strongest home field advantages in all of Sports, as evident by a -10 spread for a winless team. Lay the chalk and take the Saints at home. 9/21/2014 1:00 PM Reduced Football 453 Dallas Cowboys* -120 vs St. Louis Rams Risking 1.00 To Win 0.83 (WINNER) Dallas showed they actually can win last week, and the key for their success is a ground and pound game with Murray, then play action shots down field. NOTE this is a 1 unit play as both Romo and Bryant are a little banged up. They should be playing but are not at 100%. ALSO NOTE This is a ML play. 9/21/2014 4:25 PM Reduced Football 474 Seattle Seahawks* -4 -105 vs Denver Broncos Risking 4.00 To Win 3.81 (WINNER) The Broncos couldn't get it done in New York against the Seahawks, I don't expect they will be able to get it done in Seattle either. Seattle is coming off a loss, which means they will be extra focused this week. There are entire NFL systems built around taking winning teams coming off a loss. The books are giving Denver too much respect, they have beefed up their defense but I still don't see it being able to compete with Seattle. With the home field advantage they should be able to get it done vs a Broncos team they picked apart last year. 9/21/2014 4:05 PM Reduced Football 471 San Francisco 49ers/Arizona Cardinals* Under 41 -105 Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (WINNER) Taking the under here, both of these teams have solid D and the offense has been questionable. This one has a smashmouth football game written all over it. Play the under. 9/21/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Baseball 907 Cincinnati Reds/St. Louis Cardinals* Under 7 -115 A Simon - R Listed L Lynn - R Listed Risking 2.00 To Win 1.74 (Loss) We have been riding the unders with Lynn very profitably lately. I also like Simon to have a good game today. St Louis at home under are one of my favorite plays. Lock it in. Lets Get It Rob Email: Fri, Sep 19, 2014 at 12:29 PM 9/20/2014 12:00 PM College Football 338 Michigan State* -31 -110 vs Eastern Michigan for 1st Half Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 (WINNER) If you are wondering how this one is going to shape up, take a look at how Eastern Michigan did vs the Florida Gators. http://espn.go.com/ncf/video?gameId=400548101 Now I actually have the Michigan Defense as being better than Florida's which will likely lead to more turnovers, and their offence will be just angry after the loss to Oregon, Michigan State will surely be giving the ball to both Langford and Hill to pad their rushing stats in a game that will be a blowout from the beginning. I expect poor Eastern Michigan to be the victim of some stress relief for the Michigan State team this weekend. I would actually be surprised if Eastern Michigan even gets the ball into Michigan State territory. I am going with 2 units on the -31 for the 1st half. I may add another unit in the morning once the Alternate lines come out. I have this one easily being 38-0 or 45-0 at half. Email: Sat, Sep 20, 2014 at 9:42 AM 9/20/2014 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 971 Cleveland Indians* -114 vs Minnesota Twins T House - L Listed T May - R Listed Risking 2.00 To Win 1.75 (WINNER) We have a very nice run in MLB going this week and looking to keep it going today, the Indians lost a very close one in extra innings last night, they are not completely out of the wild card picture yet... but they need this win today to keep their hopes alive. The pitching matchup clearly favors Cleveland, House has been lights out his last 3 outtings and May has been terrible. Email: Sat, Sep 20, 2014 at 9:07 AM 9/20/2014 3:30 PM Reduced Football 373 Louisville/Florida International* Under 44 -105 Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (WINNER) This play is all about the Louisville Defense, I like them to shut down FIU and get a 28-6 type win here. This one should be a blowout, and without FIU contributing much to the total I like the under. 9/20/2014 3:30 PM Reduced Football 356 Navy* -6½ -105 vs Rutgers Risking 1.50 To Win 1.43 (Loss) Rutgers is coming off a very tough loss to Penn State, I think they left it out on the field last week and they aren't going to be able to stop the triple option run game from Navy. Navy gets a double digit win. 9/20/2014 8:00 PM Reduced Football 388 Nebraska* -7½ -105 vs Miami Florida Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (WINNER) The books clearly want action on Miami here as they are setting the line to bait people into taking the TD, but I really don't see Miami being able to go into a hostile territory like Nebraska and get the win. Take Nebraska to get a double digit win here with a solid ground game. Miami isn't the same team they were last year and I don't think they can cover against a ranked opponent on the road. 9/20/2014 7:00 PM College Football 376 Cincinnati U* -7 -115 vs Miami Ohio for 1st Quarter Risking 1.50 To Win 1.30 (Loss) Cincinnati showed they have serious quick strike capabilities in their season opener. Gunner Keil proved his abilities with a record 6 TDs in his first game. Coach Tuberville says he's going to give all 3 QBs a chance this weekend, so I expect Keil to make the most of his start and get a big lead in the 1st Quarter. Miami Ohio hasn't shown much life this year, going 0-3 to start the season, and it wont get any easier against a fresh, high powered Cincinnati team. Special Play Parlay
This is a correlated parlay. The only way I see the Gators covering this game is if they get it done on defense, if they get it done on defense, the total will probably go under and if we are getting 14.5 points I like the chances of the cover. I rarely play parlays, but this one is offering great odds, because we have a dependent situation, if the game goes under the 14.5 point spread becomes more valuable. Note I am buying a half point on each side. Lets Get It Rob Email: Fri, Sep 19, 2014 at 12:29 PM 9/19/2014 8:10 PM MLB Baseball 923 Detroit Tigers* +104 vs Kansas City Royals J Verlander - R Listed J Vargas - L Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.56 (WINNER) 9/19/2014 8:10 PM MLB Baseball 923 Detroit Tigers* -1½ +160 vs Kansas City Royals J Verlander - R Listed J Vargas - L Listed Risking 0.50 To Win 0.80 (WINNER) There are a select few pitchers in the MLB that have an extra gear for when things really matter. Justin Verlanders is one of those guys and this is one of those games. The Tigers currently sit a half game up on the Royals for the battle in 1st in the AL Central. They need to win this series and it will surely be a battle from the beginning. Verlander hasn't had great stats this year, but when you look at how he performs in the playoffs he is an absolute Ace. Look at last year in the playoffs, he started 2 games and only allowed 1 run. He seems to be a bit like one of those NBA players who coasts all year long winning enough to get into the playoffs then ramps it up. This is basically a playoff game and I really like him to bring his A game tonight. |
Join the Sports Picker VIP Client Team today!
Categories
All
Archives
January 2015
Author - Rob Holiday
Daily VIP Emails are posted here (DAY AFTER GAMES) with Results. VIP emails are sent to clients daily before 5PM EST |