Sports Picker VIP Results for 9-25-2014 (1-1 for +.54 Units)

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Thu, Sep 25, 2014 at 9:21 AM

9/25/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Baseball 916 Detroit Tigers* -1½ -130  vs Minnesota Twins
T May - R Listed   M Scherzer - R Listed
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.54 (WINNER)

9/25/2014 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 915 Minnesota Twins/Detroit Tigers* Over 9 +145
T May - R Listed   M Scherzer - R Listed
Risking 1.00 To Win 1.45 - Note Alternate Over Line (Loss)

Ok the odds on this one are not great and I don't usually take a run-line at negative money, but every way I look at this game it has blowout written all over it. The Tigers need this win to keep the Royals at bay, with Max Scherzer starting at home I like their chances. Max is 10-1 at home this year and he is facing May, who has been just terrible on the road with an ERA of 8.55, plus the last time the Tigers faced him they burned him for 5 runs in 5 innings. The only way I see us losing this bet is if the Tigers bullpen blows another save, but to be honest, I think this one will be well out of reach by that point.

I also really liked the way the Tigers closed out yesterdays game vs the White Sox, things were close until they knocked out Chris Sale, then they went on to manufacture 5 more runs in the 7th and 8th. The Tigers need this kind of game to firm up things before the playoffs, and this is the type of team that good team bury late in the season.

Looking at the over, in Mays 9 starts this year only 1 games has gone under 10 runs. We are getting amazing value on this over, as we have the #1 offense against a pretty bad pitcher. The last time May faced Detroit the score was 8-6 and they will be even more motivated to score today.

Note that Scherzer has faced the Twins twice this year and both games have gone  over with a total of 14 and 17 runs scored, the Tigers won both and covered the run line in both.

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