Email: Fri, Sep 26, 2014 at 12:27 PM 9/26/2014 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 957 Pittsburgh Pirates* -136 vs Cincinnati Reds V Worley - R Listed M Leake - R Listed Risking 2.00 To Win 1.47 (WINNER) The Pirates have been one of the hottest teams in baseball for the month of September, going 16-4 since September 5th. They currently sit one game back of St Louis for the NL Central. You can bet that they will treat this just like a wild card game, as they try to avoid the dreaded 1 game playoff. They are starting Worley who has been virtually unhittable in September, the Pirates have won his last 4 starts, and he comes into this game with a September ERA of 2.55 and a WHIP of 1.08. He is coming off 8 innings of shutout baseball vs Milwaukee on the 21st and I like him to have another quality start today. The Reds know their season is done, and Leake seems to have packed it in too. His September numbers are awful, for the month thus far he has pitched 21 innings, allowed 29 Hits and 19 runs, his WHIP is 1.68 and his Sept ERA is 7.71. The Pirates have been putting up runs, as evident in last night's 10-1 win over the Braves, they have won 8 of their last 10 including 2 quality wins over Milwaukee, they have worked hard to have a shot at the Division lead and will be motivated and focused tonight. I like them to get the win vs a Reds team that seems to have packed it in. Play the Pirates. Lets Get It Rob
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Email: Thu, Sep 25, 2014 at 9:21 AM 9/25/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Baseball 916 Detroit Tigers* -1½ -130 vs Minnesota Twins T May - R Listed M Scherzer - R Listed Risking 2.00 To Win 1.54 (WINNER) 9/25/2014 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 915 Minnesota Twins/Detroit Tigers* Over 9 +145 T May - R Listed M Scherzer - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.45 - Note Alternate Over Line (Loss) Ok the odds on this one are not great and I don't usually take a run-line at negative money, but every way I look at this game it has blowout written all over it. The Tigers need this win to keep the Royals at bay, with Max Scherzer starting at home I like their chances. Max is 10-1 at home this year and he is facing May, who has been just terrible on the road with an ERA of 8.55, plus the last time the Tigers faced him they burned him for 5 runs in 5 innings. The only way I see us losing this bet is if the Tigers bullpen blows another save, but to be honest, I think this one will be well out of reach by that point. I also really liked the way the Tigers closed out yesterdays game vs the White Sox, things were close until they knocked out Chris Sale, then they went on to manufacture 5 more runs in the 7th and 8th. The Tigers need this kind of game to firm up things before the playoffs, and this is the type of team that good team bury late in the season. Looking at the over, in Mays 9 starts this year only 1 games has gone under 10 runs. We are getting amazing value on this over, as we have the #1 offense against a pretty bad pitcher. The last time May faced Detroit the score was 8-6 and they will be even more motivated to score today. Note that Scherzer has faced the Twins twice this year and both games have gone over with a total of 14 and 17 runs scored, the Tigers won both and covered the run line in both. Email: Wed, Sep 24, 2014 at 11:03 AM 9/24/2014 10:10 PM Reduced Baseball 964 Los Angeles Dodgers* -1½ +100 vs San Francisco Giants T Hudson - R Listed C Kershaw - L Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.50 (WINNER) This is closing time, and I am putting my money on the best pitcher in baseball. There are a few reasons I like this play today. First, Kershaw didn't have his best stuff in the first inning of his last outing; he RARELY has back to back bad games, meaning he will be focused and ready tonight. Second, this is his opportunity to match his 2011 record of 21 wins, when guys like Kershaw get a chance to match a personal best they usually succeed. Third, the Dodgers have a chance to win their second straight National League West title tonight, and there isn't another guy on that team I would rather have on the mound to do it. Good pitchers only get better in September and October. Looking at the other side, San Fran is starting Tim Hudson, who has been battling a hip injury, and has lost 3 straight starts. This includes the 17-0 slaughtering at the hands of the Dodgers where he was charged for 6 runs and only lasted 1 inning a couple weeks ago. If Hudson were healthy I could see him giving it his all, and keeping this one close, but with a motivated Kershaw, and a struggling San Fran team and aging, injured pitcher. I could go on about the way the stats and situation line up for the Dodgers to get a multi run win here tonight but I think you get the idea. I see the Dodgers rolling this one and locking things up in front of the home fans. Lets Get It Rob Email: Tue, Sep 23, 2014 at 10:11 AM 9/23/2014 7:10 PM Reduced Baseball 905 Milwaukee Brewers/Cincinnati Reds* Under 6½ -120 M Fiers - R Listed J Cueto - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.25 (WINNER) 9/23/2014 7:10 PM Reduced Baseball 905 Milwaukee Brewers/Cincinnati Reds* Under 5 +190 M Fiers - R Listed J Cueto - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.90 (WINNER) I am splitting the bet here. I like this to be a very defensive and low scoring game, could very well be a 1-0 or 2-1 game with these two pitchers facing off. Both Fiers and Cueto have been lights out this year and should look to close out the season strong. Both teams are basically eliminated, but I could see the Brewers wanting to put on a strong showing to keep their slim hopes alive for another day. Neither team has been prolific at the plate this year, the Reds are averaging 3.7 runs per game, Brewers are better at 4.1. Looking at recent stats, the Reds have scored 13 runs over their past 4 games for an average of only 2.6, and 7 of those came in 1 game vs St. Louis, they are really averaging more like 1 or 2 runs per game, and against a pitcher like Fiers I thing that should hold tonight. The Brewers have had 5 straight go under the total and they have scored a total of only 5 runs over those games, while being shut out twice. This one looks like a pitcher's duel through and through. Make a strong play on the under. Note: You can get the under 5 line at Bet365. If you can't get it on your book just stick with a 2.5 unit bet on the under 6.5. Lets Get It Rob Email: Mon, Sep 22, 2014 at 12:19 PM 9/22/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Baseball 953 St. Louis Cardinals* -1½ -110 vs Chicago Cubs A Wainwright - R Listed T Wood - L Listed Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 (WINNER) This one should be pretty straight forward, we are coming right back with the Cardinals, after last nights loss they will look to get back in the win column, they shouldn't have to deal with using more than one closer tonight, if any, as Wainwritght usually goes the distance. Wainwright is also clutch down the stretch, the Cards have won his last 4 starts, and covered the run line in each of them. He is actually even better on the road this year where his ERA drops from 2.45 to 1.82 with a WHIP of 0.99. The Cubs are starting Wood who comes into this game 4.82 ERA (4.27 at Home) he faced St Louis a few games ago and got beat up pretty bad only lasting 4.2 inning and giving up 4 runs on 5 hits on route to a 6-9 loss. Lock it in Let's Get It Rob Email: Fri, Sep 19, 2014 at 12:29 PM 9/19/2014 8:10 PM MLB Baseball 923 Detroit Tigers* +104 vs Kansas City Royals J Verlander - R Listed J Vargas - L Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.56 (WINNER) 9/19/2014 8:10 PM MLB Baseball 923 Detroit Tigers* -1½ +160 vs Kansas City Royals J Verlander - R Listed J Vargas - L Listed Risking 0.50 To Win 0.80 (WINNER) There are a select few pitchers in the MLB that have an extra gear for when things really matter. Justin Verlanders is one of those guys and this is one of those games. The Tigers currently sit a half game up on the Royals for the battle in 1st in the AL Central. They need to win this series and it will surely be a battle from the beginning. Verlander hasn't had great stats this year, but when you look at how he performs in the playoffs he is an absolute Ace. Look at last year in the playoffs, he started 2 games and only allowed 1 run. He seems to be a bit like one of those NBA players who coasts all year long winning enough to get into the playoffs then ramps it up. This is basically a playoff game and I really like him to bring his A game tonight. Email: Thu, Sep 18, 2014 at 7:21 AM 9/18/2014 8:15 PM MLB Baseball 956 St. Louis Cardinals* -138 vs Milwaukee Brewers K Lohse - R Listed S Miller - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.09 9/18/2014 8:15 PM Reduced Baseball 956 St. Louis Cardinals* -1½ +165 vs Milwaukee Brewers K Lohse - R Listed S Miller - R Listed Risking 0.50 To Win 0.83 My game of the day in MLB is St. Louis to get another win over the Brewers. They got it down in classic St. Louis style last night, with Adam Wainwright throwing a full game and getting the win for us. Miller has had an up and down season but has definitely come into form recently. Over his last 3 games he has been virtually unhittable, allowing only 1 run total. Lohse has gone the other direction allowing 14 runs over his last 3 starts. The Cardinals are one of the best teams in baseball, especially when they are on home soil. I also love the fact that we are getting a fully rested bullpen as Wainwright pitched an entire game last night, if needed the Cards should be able to close this one out. Let's get things back in the win column after a couple of 1-1 days. Lets Get It Rob Email: Wed, Sep 17, 2014 at 1:24 PM 9/17/2014 8:15 PM MLB Baseball 912 St. Louis Cardinals* -143 vs Milwaukee Brewers M Fiers - R Listed A Wainwright - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.05 (WINNER) We got a win between these two with the under last night as the game ended 2-3 just like I predicted. I have to side with the Cardinals here tonight as I like this to be another close game, but I have to give the advantage to Wainwright, he is the type of guy that can turn it on when he needs to down the stretch as demonstrated by his 3 straight wins in his last 3 starts. He is clutch down the stretch and I like him to get the win in a close one tonight. 9/17/2014 8:10 PM MLB Baseball 923 Chicago White Sox* -106 vs Kansas City Royals for 1st 5 Innings C Sale - L Listed Y Ventura - R Listed Risking 2.00 To Win 1.89 (Loss) *** 5 Inning Play I would be taking the White Sox for the game here but I give a big advantage to the Royals bullpen if things are close down the stretch. Hands down Sale is the better starting pitcher, and any time we can get him at basically even money on a 5 inning line it's a pretty good bet. Sale comes into this game at 12-3 with an ERA of 1.99 for the season. The important thing to note here is that Sale has actually started 24 games for the year and only factored into a loss in 3 of those games. Even money on a 5 inning line is a steal. Ventura comes in at 12-10 3.27 ERA over a full run more than Sale. Chicago is actually averaging 4.1 runs per game compared to 4.0 for KC the big difference is in runs allowed where KC is 3.9 compared to Chicago at 4.7, but with Sale on the mound I expect this to favor Chicago, at least until the 6th inning. Make a 2 unit play on the White Sox for the 1st 5 innings. Lets Get It Rob Email: Tue, Sep 16, 2014 at 8:55 AM 9/16/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Baseball 955 Cincinnati Reds* -1½ +170 vs Chicago Cubs J Cueto - R Listed J Arrieta - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.70 (Loss) The last time the Reds faced Arrieta and the Cubs they torched him for 6 runs over 4 innings. Now I don't expect things to go quite like that tonight, but I do like the Reds chances of getting another solid 2 or 3 run win. Cueto has been solid all year and consistently holding opponents to 3 or fewer runs. The Cubs are just 2-8 over their last 10 games, and the Reds are sitting at .500 over their last 10. With their Ace up tonight I have to take the Reds here on a mid-week road run line system play. 9/16/2014 8:15 PM Reduced Baseball 957 Milwaukee Brewers/St. Louis Cardinals* Under 7 -110 W Peralta - R Listed L Lynn - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 0.91 (WINNER) This one has one run game written all over it. Both teams are starting pitchers who have been on fire recently. We cashed an under with Lynn in his last outing and Peralta seems to have figured things out after a couple of rough outings in late August. I like the odds of this one being a 3-2 type game. Lets Get It Rob Email: Mon, Sep 15, 2014 at 8:51 AM 9/15/2014 8:10 PM Reduced Baseball 917 Detroit Tigers* -1½ -108 vs Minnesota Twins M Scherzer - R Listed A Swarzak - R Listed Risking 2.00 To Win 1.85 (WINNER) Just one play in MLB today. I am going with the Tigers on the Run line. They need this win to keep pace with the Royals, they are up against the Twins who have shown they aren't really up for competing anymore this year, they come into this game with just a 2-8 record over their last 10 games. The Tigers have won 7 of their last 10 and hand the ball to Max Scherzer who will be looking to finish the season off strong to get a big contract this coming off season. The bottom line here is the Tigers need to win this kind of game and I expect them to roll the Twins. Lets Get It Rob |
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