Email: Tue, Sep 9, 2014 at 9:11 AM 9/9/2014 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 921 Baltimore Orioles* -136 vs Boston Red Sox C Tillman - R Listed A Ranaudo - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 0.74 (WINNER) 9/9/2014 7:10 PM Reduced Baseball 921 Baltimore Orioles* -1½ +125 vs Boston Red Sox C Tillman - R Listed A Ranaudo - R Listed Risking 0.50 To Win 0.63 (WINNER) The Orioles are hot right now, especially with Tillman on the mound. They have won his last 8 starts running all the way back to July 29th, he actually hasn't factored into a loss since July 12th. He holds a 2.81 ERA over 16 innings pitched vs Boston this year and the Orioles have been providing a healthy amount of run support, averaging 5.2 runs over their last 10 games. Boston is starting Ranaudo who comes into this game at 3-1 on the year but he has only won due to some great run support, his ERA sits at 4.63 and he got beat up in his last outing vs the Yankees. I like this to be a 5-2 type game for Baltimore. 9/9/2014 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 915 Kansas City Royals* +163 vs Detroit Tigers J Vargas - L Listed M Scherzer - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.63 (Loss) I have to go with KC here. The books are giving Scherzer too much respect in this one. Scherzers worst game of the year came against KC where they put up 10 runs over 4 innings against him. I agree that the Tigers should be the favorite here at home, but KC does hold a better record on the road and Vargas has pitched very well for them this year. I also give the advantage to the KC bullpen if this one is close down the stretch I like the chances of KC getting a 1 run win in the 8th or 9th inning. This is a great value play for 1 unit. Lets Get It Rob
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Email:Fri, Sep 5, 2014 at 12:22 PM 9/5/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Baseball 923 Seattle Mariners* -1½ -105 vs Texas Rangers H Iwakuma - R Listed S Baker - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.43 (WINNER) 9/5/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Baseball 923 Seattle Mariners* -2½ -150 vs Texas Rangers H Iwakuma - R Listed S Baker - R Listed Risking 0.50 To Win 0.75 (Loss) This is the most lopsided matchup of the day. The Mariners are 1st or 2nd in most statistical categories and the Rangers are 29th... look at Runs allowed seattle is 1st at 3.3, Texas is 29th at 5.0. Hits allowed 1st vs 28th, ERA Seattle 1st at 3.04 and Texas 29th at 4.71. Tonight we have Iwakuma ERA 2.90 vs Scott Baker 5.23. Texas has only scored 9 total runs over their past 6 games. Iwakuma has won 5 in a row, all by 2 or more runs and he has a 1.69 ERA vs Texas. The bottom line is Texas isn't scoring runs and Seattle isn't giving them up. 9/5/2014 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 918 New York Yankees* -122 vs Kansas City Royals for 1st 5 Innings J Shields - R Listed M Pineda - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 0.82 (Loss) 9/5/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Baseball 918 New York Yankees* -1½ +185 vs Kansas City Royals J Shields - R Listed M Pineda - R Listed Risking 0.50 To Win 0.93 (Loss) KC has won 4 in a row to begin this road trip, this is the perfect time for a setback, as they are facing Pineda who owned them last time out. Pineda has been fantastic since returning from injury. His fastball command has been giving opponents fits. Now I am taking the 1st half line for 1 unit as I like the Yankees to have the lead after 5 innings, the Yankees should be able to build a nice lead and I expect them to hang on, but if the game is close I have to give the edge to the KC Bullpen as they have been some of the best in the league this year. Looking at Shields he has been a solid starter for KC but hasn't faired well against the Yankees where he is 9-16 with a 4.33 ERA in 30 career starts. The Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 games as underdogs and they haven't played well vs AL East opponents lately either. Take the Yankees 1st half and put a half unit on the RL. Lets Get It Rob Email: Wed, Sep 3, 2014 at 2:05 PM 9/3/2014 8:10 PM Reduced Baseball 925 Chicago White Sox/Minnesota Twins* Over 9 -110 J Danks - L Listed T May - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 0.91 (WINNER) Both of these teams are starting fairly weak pitchers tonight, and both teams have been getting themselves into shootouts. The Twins games have averaged 10.8 runs per game over the last 5 and Chicago is right behind at 9.2. With Danks and May starting i expect this one to have some fire works too. Take the over. Lets Get It Rob Email: Tue, Sep 2, 2014 at 11:37 AM 9/2/2014 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 955 Milwaukee Brewers/Chicago Cubs* Under 7 +110 Y Gallardo - R Listed J Arrieta - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.10 (Loss) I am taking the under 7 line here. This game features two excellent pitchers vs two teams who have struggled to put up runs since the AS break. Looking at the Cubs, they are averaging 3.66 runs per game and they are starting Arrieta who seems to have a rough game every once in a while, then rebounds with 3 or 4 very solid outings. He got roughed up for 6 runs over 4 innings in his last game vs the Reds and I expect him to come back focused and determined tonight. The Brewers are averaging 3.87 runs per game which should be less vs a pitcher of Arrieta's caliber, and they are starting Gillardo who has been hot and cold this season but has pitched consistently well when on the road. Looking at his road performances this year he has a 2.39 ERA and a WHIP of 1.10. This should make for a very close game, and I like the total to go under 7 runs. 9/2/2014 10:05 PM MLB Baseball 977 Seattle Mariners* +128 vs Oakland Athletics J Paxton - L Listed S Gray - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.28 (WINNER) After a fantastic start to the year, Sonny Gray hasn't faired so well lately. The As have lost 5 of his last 6 starts and he has carded 4 losses in over those 6 games. Opponents are hitting Gray well and doing it early in the game. Seattle is countering with James Paxton who comes into this game with a 1.83 ERA and having a record of 4-1 on the year. To he has also looked very solid on the road where he has a 1.69 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. This one should be a close game and I will take the plus money payout on the underdog. Lets Get It Rob Email:Sun, Aug 31, 2014 at 10:03 AM 8/31/2014 3:35 PM MLB Baseball 977 Oakland Athletics* +115 vs Los Angeles Angels S Kazmir - L Listed M Shoemaker - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.15 (Loss) Any time we can get Oakland playing with Kazmir starting at plus money it's a solid play. The As are badly outhitting the Angels since the All Star break, so I like Oakland to give the run support to get a plus money win here. Lets Get it Email: Wed, Aug 27, 2014 at 12:03 PM 8/27/2014 10:05 PM MLB Baseball 979 Miami Marlins* +143 vs Los Angeles Angels H Alvarez - R Listed H Santiago - L Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.43 (Loss) 8/27/2014 10:05 PM Reduced Baseball 979 Miami Marlins/Los Angeles Angels* Under 8 -105 H Alvarez - R Listed H Santiago - L Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 0.95 (WINNER) We have a great value play here in the rubber match here. We are getting great odds on Miami tonight. They are starting their Ace Henderson Alvarez who comes into this game riding a 4 game win streak and has only lost 2 games out of his last 10 starts. Alvarez has an ERA of 2.57 which has been very consistent all year long. The Angels counter with Santiago, who comes into this game riding a 4 game losing streak, although he hasn't pitched poorly, the Angels just haven't been able to give him much run support, which has been a trend for them since the All Star break. The total has gone 8 or less in 7 of Santiago's last 8 starts and it has gone 7 of the last 9 with Alvarez on the mound (not counting the Colorado game for obvious reasons). I like Miami to win a close on here tonight. 8/27/2014 9:40 PM Reduced Baseball 961 Los Angeles Dodgers* -1½ -125 vs Arizona Diamondbacks C Kershaw - L Listed W Miley - L Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.20 (WINNER) 8/27/2014 9:40 PM Reduced Baseball 961 Los Angeles Dodgers/Arizona Diamondbacks* Under 7 -105 C Kershaw - L Listed W Miley - L Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 0.95 (WINNER) Kershaw will be out looking for redemption tonight after his last outing in Phoenix was a disaster where he got lit up for 7 runs over 1.2 innings. I don't see that happening again tonight as Kershaw has been lights out for opposing teams since that game. Looking at his last 17 starts since that game vs Arizona Kershaw hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of them and has an Average of .157. The only way I see this game going over is if LA Blows Arizona out. So with that we are making a middle bet. Take LA -1.5 for 1.5 units and go with the Under for 1 unit. I like this to be a 4-1 or 4-0 type game. 8/27/2014 8:10 PM Reduced Baseball 977 Oakland Athletics* -1½ -105 vs Houston Astros D Pomeranz - L Listed B Peacock - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.43 (Loss) Oakland has made a living out of bouncing back off a loss this year. Tonight they are starting a better pitcher with a better record and they outrank Houston in almost every statistical category, including scoring on average 4.8 runs per game compared to Houston's 4.0. Pomeranz has a 2.91 ERA vs Peacock at 5.3. On top of that Pomeranz is even better on the road at 1.65 ERA and Peacock has been ice cold recently with a 6.98 ERA in August. He did get a win in his last outing vs Cleveland, but I don't see him backing it up with another one tonight vs an Oakland team in the running for 1st in the AL. Lets Get It Rob Email: Tue, Aug 26, 2014 at 2:22 PM 8/26/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Baseball 916 Toronto Blue Jays* -1½ +145 vs Boston Red Sox R De La Rosa - R Listed R Dickey - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.45 (Loss) Toronto needs this win badly and I like them to bounce back vs a struggling Boston team. Toronto is also starting RA Dickey who dominated Boston last time they played, where the Jays won 14-1. Toronto is 5.5 games out of a playoff spot at the moment and the buzz around the city is that they need to get a big win tonight. I cant justify make a play on the ML as the odds are terrible at -145 but its worth backing them for a unit on the Run line at home. 8/26/2014 10:10 PM Reduced Baseball 928 Seattle Mariners* -1½ +115 vs Texas Rangers N Martinez - R Listed J Paxton - L Listed Risking 2.00 To Win 2.30 (WINNER) This matchup clearly favors the Mariners. They dropped one last night but I am still confident that they have the far better team and will bounce back strong today. The trend is still by far in our favor to get a 2 run or more win tonight. Especially with a lopsided pitching matcup like Martinez 5.13 vs Paxton 2.20. Looking at their recent performance its even worse, Martinez is 5.32 in August vs Paxton at 2.18 ERA. I really don't see the Mariners having two off days in a row. Make the come back play on the run line here tonight. Lets Get It Rob Email 1: Sun, Aug 24, 2014 at 9:28 AM 8/24/2014 1:05 PM MLB Baseball 919 Chicago White Sox* -125 vs New York Yankees for 1st 5 Innings C Sale - L Listed C Capuano - L Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 0.80 (WINNER) This one is based on how good Sale is and how well the Sox have played the Yankees thus far this series. They have actually been tied after 5 in both games thus far, and I think with their Ace on the mound the should be able to get the lead by 5 today. Note I don't trust the White Sox closers against the Yankees so I am just doing 1 unit on the 5 inning line. Email 2: Sun, Aug 24, 2014 at 9:43 AM 8/24/2014 3:05 PM Reduced Baseball 925 Kansas City Royals* -1½ +110 vs Texas Rangers J Vargas - L Listed S Baker - R Listed Risking 2.00 To Win 2.20 (Loss) I don't think this comes as much of a surprise. We are going with the Royals again today. They have cashed each of our plays thus far this week and they are absolutely on fire. This is the time of the year when the good teams close a series like this out and go for the finish. Vargas is a better pitcher than Baker, and after watching yesterday's game, Texas' defense is in shambles. 8/24/2014 2:10 PM Reduced Baseball 923 Detroit Tigers* -1½ +120 vs Minnesota Twins M Scherzer - R Listed K Gibson - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.20 (WINNER) The Twins were all over the Tigers earlier in this series, but when you look at the starting pitchers its not really a big surprise. The Tigers didn't exactly have their aces on the mound, but they do tonight with Max Scherzer who comes into this game at 14-4 3.07 ERA he has only 1 loss in his last 10 starts and the Tigers have won 6 of those 10 by 2 or more runs. The Tigers will be gunning to get a split in this series to avoid losing any more ground to KC who is on fire right now. Minnesota hands the ball to Gibson who is 11-9 on the year ERA 4.13. I think Detroit has the motivation factor going for them today and I like them to carry yesterday's momentum into today and get a big multi-run win. 8/24/2014 4:00 PM Reduced Football 279 San Diego Chargers* +210 vs San Francisco 49ers Risking 1.00 To Win 2.15 (LOSS) One preseason NFL pick. I have to go with the value play here with San Diego vs a San Fran team that has averaged 1.5 points per game in their first 2 preseason games lol. San Diego looked solid and I just cant ignore 2.15 to 1 odds on a team that appear to have their shit together vs a sloppy looking San Fran team. Lets Get It Rob Email 1: Sat, Aug 23, 2014 at 9:07 AM 8/23/2014 1:05 PM MLB Baseball 965 Tampa Bay Rays* -107 vs Toronto Blue Jays for 1st 5 Innings J Hellickson - R Listed M Buehrle - L Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 0.93 (Loss) 8/23/2014 1:05 PM MLB Baseball 965 Tampa Bay Rays* -1½ +150 vs Toronto Blue Jays J Hellickson - R Listed M Buehrle - L Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.50 (Loss) Buehrle went from the best pitcher in the MLB early this season to one of the worst. For August he is currently sitting at a 6.39 ERA with a 2.29 WHIP. He has only won 1 of his last 11 starts, although the Jays have been helping him out with some come from behind wins. For this reason I am going with the 5 inning line for the Rays. I am also taking the Rays for the game as they have been deadly on the road. They are 4-1 over their last 5 road games, and they are up against the Jays who are 2-7 since getting 2 extra inning wins over Detroit a few weeks ago. Over the last 9 games all of the Jays losses have been by 2 or more runs, and they are allowing a league worst 4.7 runs per game in August. Take the Rays 1st half for 1 unit and put another unit on the Run line. Email 2: Sat, Aug 23, 2014 at 10:04 AM 8/23/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Baseball 977 Kansas City Royals* -1½ +140 vs Texas Rangers J Guthrie - R Listed N Tepesch - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.40 (WINNER) 8/23/2014 8:05 PM MLB Baseball 977 Kansas City Royals* -116 vs Texas Rangers J Guthrie - R Listed N Tepesch - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 0.86 (WINNER) We are coming right back with KC again today vs the struggling Rangers. KC is allowing over a full run less per game than the Rangers and the combined run differential is a whopping 1.36 on the year. KC is making a run and they have one of the best closing teams in the business. If KC can keep this one close or get the lead through 6 innings I like them to close this one out without much trouble. Go with KC to get another big win vs the struggling Rangers, ML and RL. 8/23/2014 1:35 PM Reduced Baseball 973 Seattle Mariners* -1½ +167 vs Boston Red Sox C Young - R Listed B Workman - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.67 (WINNER) I am very surprised at the value we are getting on the run line here. Boston showed last night that they really don't have the confidence to win right now, blowing a 3 run lead in the 9th inning to lose 5-3. Seattle has been cruising along outscoring their opponents by over 2 runs per game. Seattle has a better starting pitcher tonight with Young at 3.11 ERA vs Workman at 4.41. This is a great road runline value play at +167. We don't usually get payouts this high on a total the run line for games with a total of over 8. Lets Get It Rob Email: Fri, Aug 22, 2014 at 12:12 PM 8/22/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Baseball 923 Kansas City Royals* -1½ +120 vs Texas Rangers Y Ventura - R Listed C Lewis - R Listed Risking 2.00 To Win 2.40 (WINNER) KC is on fire since the All Star break. They come into this game winning 22 of their last 28. They are coming off a loss in Colorado and I like them to rebound strong tonight vs a Texas team who is the worst in the MLB at home with a home record of only 23-38. To add to the trouble Texas hands the ball to Lewis who has the worst home ERA of any pitcher in baseball at 7.29 with a home record of 2-7. 8/22/2014 7:10 PM Reduced Baseball 921 Seattle Mariners* -1½ -105 vs Boston Red Sox F Hernandez - R Listed J Kelly - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.43 (WINNER) This play is pretty straight forward. The Red Sox are struggling and they are facing one of the best pitchers in the game in Hernandez. When I look at who should win this game its clearly Seattle. And looking at Seattles track record recently, when they win, they win by 2 or more runs. They have cashed the run line in each of their last 12 wins. In fact over their last 17 games the Mariners have outscored their opponents by an incredible 46 runs. Good for an average winning margin of 2.7 runs per game. Boston on the other hand looked ice cold at the plate vs the Angels where they were outscored 18-8 over the 4 game series at Fenway park. I could see this being a 2nd straight home shutout. 8/22/2014 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 917 Chicago White Sox* +175 vs New York Yankees J Danks - L Listed S Greene - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.75 (Loss) I don't put too much weight in Chicago getting swept by Baltimore as they are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now. Tonights matchup against the Yankees could be just what they need to put that series behind them. They hand the ball to Danks, who shut the Yankees out for 8 innings back on May 24th... only to have the game blown in the 9th and 10th. He has had a few rough outtings recently but the Yankees haven't exactly been putting runs up, averaging only 2.3 per game since Aug 9th. The Yankees are starting Green who I agree should be favored, but I my math shows there is a lot of value in an underdog play on the Sox here tonight. Take the Dog at +175 for 1 unit. 8/22/2014 7:30 PM Reduced Football 255 Carolina Panthers* +230 vs New England Patriots Risking 1.00 To Win 2.30 (Loss) I am also going to take Carolina as the big dog here for 1 unit. They have an excellent pass rush and defense that could pose problems for Brady, on top of that New England is no doubt going to look to get Brady some playing time, but I can see the coaching staff pulling him after the 1st half if things aren't going well especially if he takes a sack or two. This is a classic value play, I really don't see the Pats being a 6 point favorite in a game where they may want to protect their best players. Lets Get It Rob |
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