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Fri, Oct 31, 2014 at 10:38 AM

10/31/2014 7:05 PM NHL Hockey 52 Columbus Blue Jackets (1st 60 min)* -½ +168  vs Toronto Maple Leafs (1st 60 min)
Risking 1.00 To Win 1.68 (Loss)

10/31/2014 7:05 PM NHL Hockey 52 Columbus Blue Jackets* -1½ +260  vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Risking 1.00 To Win 2.60 (Loss)
 
2 system plays on the Blue Jackets here, the Leafs got a big home win vs Buffalo, Columbus is coming off a home loss to Ottawa. I think this is a good spot for the Blue Jackets to rebound and get a big win. Columbus just finished a rough road trip against the California teams, I think they will have settled back in and will be ready tonight. Columbus rarely goes to OT. Over since the beginning of the 2013 season, they rarely go to overtime and they almost never win in OT. So far this season they have No overtime games, and last year they only went to OT 5 times and they lost 4 of those 5. There is no reason to take Columbus on the ML. the value is on the Win in regulation and the Puck Line.

10/31/2014 10:35 PM Reduced Basketball 711 Los Angeles Clippers* -11 -105  vs Los Angeles Lakers
Risking 1.00 To Win 0.95 (Loss)

I am going with the Clippers here, the Lakers haven’t shown me anything so far, they got destroyed by Phoenix a few nights ago and the Clippers always seem to show up for the LA games, the are healthy and up against a Lakers team that just got Koby back, but as we have seen early season, doesn't have a supporting cast. Take a 1 unit play at -11.

Lets Get It

Rob

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Thu, Oct 30, 2014 at 5:56 AM

10/30/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Hockey 1 Boston Bruins* -1½ +130  vs Buffalo Sabres
Risking 2.00 To Win 2.60 (Loss)

This is our first 2 unit play of the NHL season. I am going with Boston -1.5 over Buffalo. Buffalo has been terrible this year and the only thing worse than their overall record is their record at home. They are 2-8 overall and 0-4 on home ice. Boston is averaging over 2 goals more per game than Buffalo and they are allowing 1.14 goals less per game. If this were an NFL spread it would be 3… but we are getting it at -1.5 for plus money. Boston has covered the puck line in 3 of their 8 games so far, including a 4-0 win over Buffalo. On the year Buffalo is allowing 3.3 goals for every 1 they score. This one is a very lopsided match up. 

For now I am not making a play on the Thursday night NFL game. If anything changes I will send an email, I don't see much value in the line at 3. 

NCAA I am watching the Florida State game to try an figure out what is going on there, there has been a huge reverse line move from  -7 down to -3.5 with over 70% of the public on Florida state... this indicates there is a LOT of smart money bets on Louisville pushing the line from +7 down to +3.5. The obvious Square play would be to take Florida State but someone knows something here so I am probably going to avoid this game as I haven't been able to figure out the angle yet. 

Lets Get It

Rob

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Wed, Oct 29, 2014 at 9:14 AM

10/29/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Baseball 913 San Francisco Giants* +134  vs Kansas City Royals
T Hudson - R Listed   J Guthrie - R Listed
Risking 2.00 To Win 2.68 (WINNER)

10/29/2014 8:05 PM MLB Baseball 913 San Francisco Giants* -2 +252  vs Kansas City Royals
T Hudson - R Listed   J Guthrie - R Listed
Risking 1.00 To Win 2.52 (Loss)

Bounce back time for the Giants, they had a terrible outing last night, and I think in the end they realized that it would probably be best to save the real bullets for tonight’s game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hudson on a very VERY short leash tonight and Bumgarner in this game in the 4th or 5th inning if needed.  If that happens, its pretty much lights out for the Royals from that point forward. I also think a big part of it is mental, Bumgarner has this way of demoralizing the opponents and the Royals have been frustrated with him every time they see him. The Giants second best starter has been Hudson, he pitched well in game 4 but the Giants couldn’t give him the run support to get the W. Hudson is one of those guys who has a deceiving record too, he went 9-13 on the year, but the Giants got another 10 wins behind him in games he didnt get the decision.

This is a HUGE game and I will take the experienced Giants confidently in this game. Guthrie is starting just his 3rd career playoff start tonight in what may amount to the biggest game of his life… that’s a lot of pressure and I think this benefits the Giants who have been through this before.

I am going with 2 units on the ML and 1 unit on the -2 line. Note that this needs to win by 3 to win, if the Giants win by 2 we push this bet.

Lets Get It

Rob

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Tue, Oct 28, 2014 at 11:43 AM

10/28/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Hockey 5 Los Angeles Kings* -115  vs Philadelphia Flyers
Risking 0.50 To Win 0.44 (Loss)

10/28/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Hockey 5 Los Angeles Kings* -1½ +248  vs Philadelphia Flyers
Risking 0.50 To Win 1.24 (Loss)

Great value play on the puck line here. Now it is important to note that this bet will only win about 40% of the time, but we are getting a HUGE payoff at +248. Of Las 8 games so far this season they have covered the Puck line in 5 of them. For a 62.5% puck line cover rate. They have also allowed the fewest goals against of any team in the NHL, averaging only 1.5 GA per game. Philly is scoring goals, but they are 3rd worst in the league for allowing goals with an average of 3.5 GA per game. That means the Kings are allowing a full 2 goals less per game. The Flyers have historically been a much better team at home than on the road, but have struggled against quality defenses. The Kings are just as good on the road as they are at home. In 2013-14 the Kings covered the puck line in 29.7% of their games, and in about 54% of their wins. I usually like to see this number closer to 60% but given the start this year we are getting good enough value with the large payout to justify the play.

10/28/2014 7:35 PM Reduced Hockey 11 Buffalo Sabres* +200  vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Risking 1.00 To Win 2.00 (Loss)

This is strictly a value play. The Leafs have been terrible on home ice going 1-4 to start the season. The Sabres haven’t been much better at 2-7 overall but they do have a respectable road record at 2-3. Neither team has looked good this year. Looking at the match I have the true value of this game closer to +140 for the Sabres but we are getting +200. Again this bet will only win about 40% of the time, but we are getting enough value to make a play at +200. 

10/28/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Hockey 2 Columbus Blue Jackets* -1½ +260  vs Ottawa Senators
Risking 1.00 To Win 2.60 (Loss)

This is another home team puck-line system play. Last year Columbus covered the puck line in a ridiculous 82% of their home wins. There were only 4 home wins where they didn’t win by 2 or more goals. This means that if we thing they are going to win we should be betting on the puck line. Especially when we are getting +260. 

10/28/2014 10:35 PM Reduced Basketball 506 Los Angeles Lakers* +260  vs Houston Rockets
Risking 1.00 To Win 2.60 (Loss)

Here we have an underdog system play. The Lakers were terrible last year but they get Kobe back tonight…. But they will be without Nash. Strange things happen on opening night. Well worth the +260 on the underdog play here.

Lets Get It

Rob

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Mon, Oct 27, 2014 at 12:59 PM

10/27/2014 8:30 PM Reduced Football 277 Washington Redskins* +10 ½ -110  vs Dallas Cowboys
Risking 10.00 To Win 9.09 – Available on Bodog or Bovada (WINNER)

10/27/2014 8:30 PM Reduced Football 278 Dallas Cowboys* -9 -101  vs Washington Redskins
Risking 10.00 To Win 9.90 – Available on 5Dimes (Loss)

Today we have an Ultra rare situation that is a Sports Bettors dream. 

About 5.8% of NFL games land on a 10 point spread. We have a wide line spread and a great arbitrage opportunity between Bodog or Bovada and 5Dimes. 

First off this line is all over the place depending where you look. You can find it at +10.5 on Bodog and +9 on 5Dimes. Which means if you have accounts on both you can lock in a free bet on both sides and catch a middle if it falls on 10. This is a great bet. I personally locked in a 10 unit play on both sides. If this lands on -10 for the cowboys we win both. If it lands on -9 the Cowboys push and we win the Redskins bet.

If you don’t have accounts on both, I would recommend making a play on Bodog only for +10.5 for 1 unit on the Redskins.

But this doesn’t happen often so I would very VERY Strongly recommend getting accounts at both books and betting as much as you can – equal amounts on both sides.

Make sure you check your limits on both accounts before betting. Or bet in 1 unit increments so you don't get stuck with an open position.

Lets Get It

Rob

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Sun, Oct 26, 2014 at 8:16 AM

10/26/2014 1:00 PM Reduced Football 262 New York Jets* -2 ½ -123 vs Buffalo Bills
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.63 (Loss)

I like the Jets to get a win in a close one here today. They have their back up against the wall, this is a must win game for them, on home field and against a Buffalo team that just lost both of their start running backs. I am always worried about taking Geno Smith, but this is a good place for the Jets to get a win.

10/26/2014 1:00 PM Reduced Football 263 Miami Dolphins* -6½ -105  vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (WINNER)

Miami has been playing some solid football lately, this is also a game against an instate rival, where the Dolphins will probably have just as many fans as the Jaguars, so I don’t really see there being much of a home field advantage. There is a lot of money pouring in on Miami, lock this in now before the line moves to 7. 

Teaser - ties WIN - NFL sides 6 pts (-115) - Teaser from 5Dimes

Wager

1. 10/26/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 265 Houston Texans* +3  vs Tennessee Titans
2. 10/26/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 265 Houston Texans/Tennessee Titans* Under 48

Risking 2.00 To Win 1.74 (WINNER)

The Titans haven’t been able to score all year long, now they are up against one of the best defenses in the league, that just got their #1 overall pick Jadaveon Clowney back in the lineup. I don’t have much confidence in either of these teams scoring much, but overall I have to give the edge to Houston, especially if we get +3.5 points on this teaser.*** Make sure you get the TIES WIN teaser so +3 is a winner, otherwise take the 6.5 point teaser. 

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Sun, Oct 26, 2014 at 11:46 AM

10/26/2014 4:05 PM Reduced Football 270 Arizona Cardinals* -1 -105  vs Philadelphia Eagles
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (WINNER)

Cardinals are one of the best defensive teams in football up against one of the best offenses in Football today. I have to side with the home team here, the Eagles have been clicking on offense but they haven’t played much of anyone with a defense like Arizona.  Aside from the game against Denver, the Cardinals haven’t allowed over 20 points in any game, the Eagles have allowed over 20 in every game this year, except for one against Jacksonville. This should be a close game, and ill back the team with the better Defense. 

10/26/2014 8:30 PM Reduced Football 276 New Orleans Saints* -2½ -105  vs Green Bay Packers
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (WINNER)

Going with a play on New Orleans tonight, they have an 18-0 streak of home wins under Sean Payton, they haven’t lost a home game in over a year. Green Bay has been great at home but struggled against good teams on the road. Overall the Saints are just a different team at home, they have covered 3 or more points at home in every single game since the beginning of the 2013 season. Play the Saints. 

lets Get It

Rob

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Sat, Oct 25, 2014 at 7:38 AM

10/25/2014 12:00 PM Reduced Football 125 Minnesota U* -5 -102  vs Illinois
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.96 (Loss)

This line has dropped a bit and I am going to lock it in at -5 on Minnesota. I think that people are giving Illinois too much credit for this homecoming game. Matchup wise my systems don’t have them matching up well against Minnesota. Minnesota plays a very run oriented game, they rank 25th overall in Rushing at 222.4 yards per game. I think the books have this line so close as they struggle in overall offense, but is that an effect or a result of the rushing? My thoughts are that they chew clock and keep the scores low. Gophers have a great Passing defense and I like them to get some turnovers and hold the Illinois passing game in check, especially without starting QB Wes Lunt. Reilly O’Toole will be stepping in and he didn’t look great last week, against an experienced Gophers pass D I think this could be a very long day. 

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Mon, Oct 20, 2014 at 5:45 AM

10/25/2014 3:30 PM College Football 168 Michigan State* -17 -107  vs Michigan
Risking 3.00 To Win 2.80 Best line at Pinnacle (WINNER)

Lock this one in now. Michigan will not be able to compete with State this year. This one will likely go much the same way as the Notre Dame game and end up in a blowout shutout or something close to it. Lock in the 17 points. I may take an additonal unit when the alternate lines come out. Last year this was a 29-6 blowout, I think State has a better team this year, and I actually think the Wolverines are worse... 31-0 sounds about right. Load up on state before the line moves.

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Sat, Oct 25, 2014 at 7:52 AM

10/25/2014 12:00 PM Reduced Football 141 Maryland* +10 -108  vs Wisconsin
Risking 1.00 To Win 0.92 (Loss)

10/25/2014 12:00 PM Reduced Football 141 Maryland* +328  vs Wisconsin
Risking 1.00 To Win 3.28 (Loss)

I am adding an underdog play here. Lots of Sharp money coming in on Maryland, I was eying this one all week and have decided to pull the trigger. Wisconsin inst the same team of their past, I think this game could very easily go similar to the Northwestern game. Lock in a unit on the ML and one at +10

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Sat, Oct 25, 2014 at 10:48 AM

10/25/2014 3:30 PM Reduced Football 160 TCU* -23 -105  vs Texas Tech
Risking 3.00 To Win 2.86 (WINNER)

I actually think TCU has a very good shot of getting into the final 4 playoff this year, even with the one close loss to Baylor, I don’t think that will hurt them too much, if they continue to roll teams as they have been. This weeks victim is going to be the Red Raiders of Texas Tech, the Red Raiders play well at home, but have always struggled on the road, they average 34.5 points per game at home but only 26.5 on the road. They struggled against a K-State defense on the road, and I think TCU is just as good if not better on D. They also have a very large defensive problem, ranking 116th in the FBS. Combine the lack of D with their inability to play in hostile territory, and the fact that TCU is blowing bad defenses away, I am laying the big chalk on the Horned Frogs. TCU is scoring over 45 points per game on average and allowing under 21... so against an average team with an average Offense and Defense they would cover this spread, add the points for home field advantage and motivation to keep their playoff dreams alive and we have a strong system play here. 

10/25/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Hockey 53 Boston Bruins* -1½ +270  vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Risking 1.00 To Win 2.70 (WINNER)

We have a Road Puck line system play here. Toronto plays terrible at home, especially against good quality teams. Over the last 2 years Toronto has been one of the worst teams in the NHL for getting blown out, Boston although not as potent on offense, is still one of the best all around teams. I think they get it done and win this game 3-1. Also note if Boston is in the lead in the 3rd they are one of the best in the business at getting that empty net goal. At +270 we are getting excellent value here.

Lets Get It

Rob

Email:
Fri, Oct 24, 2014 at 2:35 PM

1. 10/24/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Baseball 906 San Francisco Giants* -1½ +175  vs Kansas City Royals
J Guthrie - R Listed   T Hudson - R Listed
Risking 1.00 To Win 1.75 (Loss)
 
2. 10/24/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Baseball 906 San Francisco Giants* -121  vs Kansas City Royals
J Guthrie - R Listed   T Hudson - R Listed
Risking 1.00To Win 0.83 (Loss)

Only one play today. Sorry no write up but basically going with San fran on a redemption game 

Email:
Thu, Oct 23, 2014 at 2:47 PM

10/23/2014 10:35 PM Reduced Hockey 66 Los Angeles Kings* -1½ -115  vs Buffalo Sabres
Risking 1.50 To Win 1.30 (WINNER)

Take the Kings on the Puck Line here. Buffalo is on a west coast road trip in the Bermuda triangle of the NHL. They are facing a far more skilled kings team that should be able to easily put up some numbers. The Kings covered the puck line against Winnipeg and Edmonton, who I consider to be better teams than Buffalo. The Sabres have only scored 1 goal in their last 3 games and 2 goals in their last 4 games against quality teams. I think this one ends up another 3-0 type game for the Kings.

10/23/2014 7:35 PM Reduced Hockey 53 Pittsburgh Penguins* -117  vs Detroit Red Wings
Risking 1.00 To Win 0.85 (Loss)

I don’t think this one needs too much explaining, anytime we are getting a team as good as the Penguins, coming off a loss at basically even money it’s a decent play. Take the ML for 1 unit. 

10/23/2014 8:00 PM Reduced Football 107 Miami Florida/Virginia Tech* Under 48 -103 
Risking 1.00 To Win 0.97 (WINNER)

There is a lot of sharp action coming in on the under for this game, so I am following suit for 1 unit here. I will admit me missed a bit of the value as this one was at 49.5 this morning but I think we still have enough value to make a play at 48. Virginia Tech still has one of the best defenses in the FBS, they are ranked 19th overall allowing only 20 points per game. This is a nationally televised game, they are coming off a hard fought loss to Pitt, I think the D comes up big tonight. Miami comes into this game with very similar stats both tied in the ACC at 4-3. I think this game will be very evenly matched and neither team will want to make a mistake. Play the under. 

Teaser - ties reduce - NFL sides 6½ pts 

Wager

1.     10/23/2014 8:25 PM NFL Football 103 San Diego Chargers* +17  vs Denver Broncos

2.     10/23/2014 8:25 PM NFL Football 103 San Diego Chargers/Denver Broncos* Under 58 

Risking 2.00 To Win 1.67 (WINNER)
 
San Diego knows that they likely wont be able to beat Denver in a shoot out, so the logical thing to do is control the clock and time of possession, this will lead to a lower score, as evidence by the last 3 meetings between these two all going under. They have all been within 8 points  and under the total. We are getting a ton of value on this teaser covering key numbers up to 17. The Chargers worst loss since the beginning of last season was by 10 points, tease this one up and lets make the value play here. 

This play is available on 5Dimes. 

Lets Get It

Rob

Email:
Wed, Oct 22, 2014 at 2:18 PM

10/22/2014 9:35 PM Reduced Hockey 5 Washington Capitals* -140  vs Edmonton Oilers
Risking 1.00 To Win 0.71 (Loss)

10/22/2014 9:35 PM Reduced Hockey 5 Washington Capitals* -1½ +220  vs Edmonton Oilers
Risking 1.00 To Win 2.20 (Loss)

We are getting decent value on the Capitals vs Edmonton who is off to another terrible start. They got a win over Tampa a couple nights ago, but I don’t see them getting back to back wins. The Caps are 3-0-2 so far this year, including quality wins over Boston and New Jersey. Edmonton has been getting blown out by good teams, and Washington has the talent to score some goals. Washington has won 4 of the last 5 meetings by 2 or more goals and outscored Edmonton 18-7 in those games. Play Washington on both the ML and the Puck Line. If Washington wants to make the playoffs this year, they know they need to win these types of games.

10/22/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Hockey 3 Philadelphia Flyers/Pittsburgh Penguins* Over 5½ -115 
Risking 1.00 To Win 0.87 (WINNER)

10/22/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Hockey 3 Philadelphia Flyers* +213  vs Pittsburgh Penguins
Risking 0.50 To Win 1.06 (WINNER)

The value is on Philly here, over the past couple of years they have had Pittsburgh’s number. Looking back to last year, Philly went 4-1 against Pittsburg, including 3 wins on the road in Pittsburgh. At +200 the value here is clearly on the road dog. I am also going with the over as these two teams historically play to very high totals, the last 2 games have each had 7 total goals, Philly has been allowing over 4 goals per game and Pittsburgh has been scoring over 4 per game. Play the Dog and Over.

Lets Get It

Rob