Sports Picker VIP Results for 10-28-2014 (0-5 for -4 Units)

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Tue, Oct 28, 2014 at 11:43 AM

10/28/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Hockey 5 Los Angeles Kings* -115  vs Philadelphia Flyers
Risking 0.50 To Win 0.44 (Loss)

10/28/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Hockey 5 Los Angeles Kings* -1½ +248  vs Philadelphia Flyers
Risking 0.50 To Win 1.24 (Loss)

Great value play on the puck line here. Now it is important to note that this bet will only win about 40% of the time, but we are getting a HUGE payoff at +248. Of Las 8 games so far this season they have covered the Puck line in 5 of them. For a 62.5% puck line cover rate. They have also allowed the fewest goals against of any team in the NHL, averaging only 1.5 GA per game. Philly is scoring goals, but they are 3rd worst in the league for allowing goals with an average of 3.5 GA per game. That means the Kings are allowing a full 2 goals less per game. The Flyers have historically been a much better team at home than on the road, but have struggled against quality defenses. The Kings are just as good on the road as they are at home. In 2013-14 the Kings covered the puck line in 29.7% of their games, and in about 54% of their wins. I usually like to see this number closer to 60% but given the start this year we are getting good enough value with the large payout to justify the play.

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10/28/2014 7:35 PM Reduced Hockey 11 Buffalo Sabres* +200  vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Risking 1.00 To Win 2.00 (Loss)

This is strictly a value play. The Leafs have been terrible on home ice going 1-4 to start the season. The Sabres haven’t been much better at 2-7 overall but they do have a respectable road record at 2-3. Neither team has looked good this year. Looking at the match I have the true value of this game closer to +140 for the Sabres but we are getting +200. Again this bet will only win about 40% of the time, but we are getting enough value to make a play at +200. 

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10/28/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Hockey 2 Columbus Blue Jackets* -1½ +260  vs Ottawa Senators
Risking 1.00 To Win 2.60 (Loss)

This is another home team puck-line system play. Last year Columbus covered the puck line in a ridiculous 82% of their home wins. There were only 4 home wins where they didn’t win by 2 or more goals. This means that if we thing they are going to win we should be betting on the puck line. Especially when we are getting +260. 

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10/28/2014 10:35 PM Reduced Basketball 506 Los Angeles Lakers* +260  vs Houston Rockets
Risking 1.00 To Win 2.60 (Loss)

Here we have an underdog system play. The Lakers were terrible last year but they get Kobe back tonight…. But they will be without Nash. Strange things happen on opening night. Well worth the +260 on the underdog play here.

Lets Get It

Rob

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