Email: Thu, Sep 18, 2014 at 7:21 AM 9/18/2014 8:15 PM MLB Baseball 956 St. Louis Cardinals* -138 vs Milwaukee Brewers K Lohse - R Listed S Miller - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.09 9/18/2014 8:15 PM Reduced Baseball 956 St. Louis Cardinals* -1½ +165 vs Milwaukee Brewers K Lohse - R Listed S Miller - R Listed Risking 0.50 To Win 0.83 My game of the day in MLB is St. Louis to get another win over the Brewers. They got it down in classic St. Louis style last night, with Adam Wainwright throwing a full game and getting the win for us. Miller has had an up and down season but has definitely come into form recently. Over his last 3 games he has been virtually unhittable, allowing only 1 run total. Lohse has gone the other direction allowing 14 runs over his last 3 starts. The Cardinals are one of the best teams in baseball, especially when they are on home soil. I also love the fact that we are getting a fully rested bullpen as Wainwright pitched an entire game last night, if needed the Cards should be able to close this one out. Let's get things back in the win column after a couple of 1-1 days. Lets Get It Rob
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Email: Wed, Sep 17, 2014 at 1:24 PM 9/17/2014 8:15 PM MLB Baseball 912 St. Louis Cardinals* -143 vs Milwaukee Brewers M Fiers - R Listed A Wainwright - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.05 (WINNER) We got a win between these two with the under last night as the game ended 2-3 just like I predicted. I have to side with the Cardinals here tonight as I like this to be another close game, but I have to give the advantage to Wainwright, he is the type of guy that can turn it on when he needs to down the stretch as demonstrated by his 3 straight wins in his last 3 starts. He is clutch down the stretch and I like him to get the win in a close one tonight. 9/17/2014 8:10 PM MLB Baseball 923 Chicago White Sox* -106 vs Kansas City Royals for 1st 5 Innings C Sale - L Listed Y Ventura - R Listed Risking 2.00 To Win 1.89 (Loss) *** 5 Inning Play I would be taking the White Sox for the game here but I give a big advantage to the Royals bullpen if things are close down the stretch. Hands down Sale is the better starting pitcher, and any time we can get him at basically even money on a 5 inning line it's a pretty good bet. Sale comes into this game at 12-3 with an ERA of 1.99 for the season. The important thing to note here is that Sale has actually started 24 games for the year and only factored into a loss in 3 of those games. Even money on a 5 inning line is a steal. Ventura comes in at 12-10 3.27 ERA over a full run more than Sale. Chicago is actually averaging 4.1 runs per game compared to 4.0 for KC the big difference is in runs allowed where KC is 3.9 compared to Chicago at 4.7, but with Sale on the mound I expect this to favor Chicago, at least until the 6th inning. Make a 2 unit play on the White Sox for the 1st 5 innings. Lets Get It Rob Email: Tue, Sep 16, 2014 at 8:55 AM 9/16/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Baseball 955 Cincinnati Reds* -1½ +170 vs Chicago Cubs J Cueto - R Listed J Arrieta - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.70 (Loss) The last time the Reds faced Arrieta and the Cubs they torched him for 6 runs over 4 innings. Now I don't expect things to go quite like that tonight, but I do like the Reds chances of getting another solid 2 or 3 run win. Cueto has been solid all year and consistently holding opponents to 3 or fewer runs. The Cubs are just 2-8 over their last 10 games, and the Reds are sitting at .500 over their last 10. With their Ace up tonight I have to take the Reds here on a mid-week road run line system play. 9/16/2014 8:15 PM Reduced Baseball 957 Milwaukee Brewers/St. Louis Cardinals* Under 7 -110 W Peralta - R Listed L Lynn - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 0.91 (WINNER) This one has one run game written all over it. Both teams are starting pitchers who have been on fire recently. We cashed an under with Lynn in his last outing and Peralta seems to have figured things out after a couple of rough outings in late August. I like the odds of this one being a 3-2 type game. Lets Get It Rob Email: Mon, Sep 15, 2014 at 8:51 AM 9/15/2014 8:10 PM Reduced Baseball 917 Detroit Tigers* -1½ -108 vs Minnesota Twins M Scherzer - R Listed A Swarzak - R Listed Risking 2.00 To Win 1.85 (WINNER) Just one play in MLB today. I am going with the Tigers on the Run line. They need this win to keep pace with the Royals, they are up against the Twins who have shown they aren't really up for competing anymore this year, they come into this game with just a 2-8 record over their last 10 games. The Tigers have won 7 of their last 10 and hand the ball to Max Scherzer who will be looking to finish the season off strong to get a big contract this coming off season. The bottom line here is the Tigers need to win this kind of game and I expect them to roll the Twins. Lets Get It Rob Email: Fri, Sep 12, 2014 at 7:38 PM 9/13/2014 12:00 PM Reduced Football 125 East Carolina/Virginia Tech* Under 54 -107 Risking 2.00 To Win 1.87 (WINNER) I like this one to go well under this total. Looking at this matchup last year the Virginia Tech defense shut down East Carolina and limited them to only 10 points and got a safety. I don't expect it to be quite as low scoring but look for something in the neighborhood of 24-17. 9/13/2014 12:00 PM Reduced Football 129 Pittsburgh U* -25 -108 vs Florida International Risking 2.00 To Win 1.85 (Loss) I have been watching this line all week and I am a little surprised it hasn't moved up as Pittsburgh should have little trouble running all over FIU. I like the Pitt defense to shut this one down too so we could see another blowout. FIU has already matched their win total of 1 from last season when they got a 34-3 win over Wagner. I have to think this is boosting their line for this week considering they only cracked the 20 point mark once twice last year. In my opinion Pitt is a team that doesn't get much limelight but with the power run game from Conner I think they run all over FIU this week. 9/13/2014 3:30 PM Reduced Football 151 Georgia* -6½ -110 vs South Carolina Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 (Loss) 9/13/2014 3:30 PM Reduced Football 151 Georgia/South Carolina* Over 59 -108 Risking 1.00 To Win 0.93 (WINNER) Georgia has really had their problems in the past when traveling to Columbia... but I have to say this Game Cocks team really hasn't impressed me this year. I expect better things out of the defense but it really hasn't shown up and the absence of Clowny is very evident. I expect Georgia to run the ball hard with Todd Gurley and likely win this one by a couple of touchdowns in a high scoring game. The only way the Game Cocks will be able to stay with Georgia in this one is to air it out and try to in a shootout, because I really don't see the Game Cock defense being able to slow 9/13/2014 3:30 PM Reduced Football 153 Arkansas* +1 -105 vs Texas Tech Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (WINNER) I really like Arkansas in this one, Texas Tech just doesn't have the defense to slow down the run game. Arkansas had a rough start to the season up against Auburn but they hung with them for the 1st half before falling off in the 2nd half. They then routed Nicholls State 73-7 in their home opener. 9/13/2014 7:00 PM Reduced Football 197 Northern Illinois* -10 -105 vs UNLV Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (WINNER) I have been very very impressed with NIU this year. I really didn't expect much from them after losing Jordan Lynch but they have come out and shown they can do it without them. It looks like they are still figuring out who will be the starter but it doesn't really seem to matter after they got a signature win last week vs Northwestern. The Huskies defense has also been getting it done holding both their opponents scoreless in the first half of their first 2 games. I expect them to have another big game vs a UNLV team that has struggled to score points, putting up only 13 in each of their first 2 games of the year. Email: Sat, Sep 13, 2014 at 3:50 PM 9/13/2014 9:05 PM Reduced Baseball 926 Los Angeles Angels* -1½ -105 vs Houston Astros S Feldman - R Listed J Weaver - R Listed Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (WINNER) I am adding an MLB play on the late game tonight. I have to take this one on the Run Line. The Angels have just been on fire lately. They came from 3 behind last night to win 11-3 and they aren't showing any signs of slowing down. Take the Haloes on the Run Line. Lets Get It Rob Email: Fri, Sep 12, 2014 at 12:24 PM 9/12/2014 8:00 PM College Football 109 Baylor/Buffalo U* Over 37 -110 for 1st Half Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 (Loss) 9/12/2014 8:00 PM College Football 109 Baylor/Buffalo U* Over 38 +120 for 1st Half Risking 1.00 To Win 1.20 (Loss) I think we are going to be hearing Petty to Cannon a lot in this game. After catching 3 touchdowns from Seth Russell last week in the 1st quarter, I don't see them slowing things down this week vs Buffalo with the #1 QB back in action. Baylor is the type of team to build a lead in the 1st half then coast through the rest of the game. Last year vs Buffalo they put up 56 points in the 1st half en route to a 70-13 win. I think this one could have well over 40 in the 1st half very easily, especially if we get a few points from Buffalo. Looking at Baylor last year, against unranked opponents they averaged 39.7 points in the 1st half on their own. When we look at the totals the average was 48.7! We are getting a great line here at only 37 and I am also adding a unit on the alternate 1st half over line at over 38. 9/12/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Baseball 968 Toronto Blue Jays* -1½ +155 vs Tampa Bay Rays N Karns - R Listed J Happ - L Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.55 (Loss) I have to make a play on the Jays here, they have been on fire at the plate over this recent run. They are up against a sub .500 Rays team and the Jays need to keep winning to keep their playoff hopes alive. I like the Jays to win, and when they win they have been covering the run line. 9/12/2014 10:05 PM Reduced Baseball 975 Houston Astros/Los Angeles Angels* Over 8½ -110 B Oberholtzer - L Listed C Wilson - L Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.36 (WINNER) Short write up here, these two teams have been putting up runs like crazy since the AS break. These are two of the weaker pitchers in the rotation with Oberholtzer at ERA 4.38 and Wilson at 4.64. Play the over, this should be a shootout. Let's Get It Rob Email: Wed, Sep 10, 2014 at 10:55 AM NFL - Thursday Night Football I am making a Teaser play here. 2 Team 6 point teaser - Ties Reduce (push) at (-110)
Line available at 5Dimes Each of the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams has been decided by a field goal or less and all of the totals have gone under 44 points. I made this play both times they played last year and I have to go back to it again this year. This is always a hard fought divisional game that usually comes down to the last play of the game. I really wouldn't be surprised to see another 3 point game here. Looking at all of the common combinations we are getting some extra safety with the 51 total just incase the final ends up at 27-24. My real feeling is that this game will be somewhere in the 20-23 range which should cover both the spread and the under bet here. Note: You can get this same play at +9 and under 50 for -110 on Bodog or Bovada, but the under 51 is a much better total than 50, and the half point from +8.5 to +9 doesn't usually make much difference. Email: Thu, Sep 11, 2014 at 8:11 AM 9/11/2014 12:35 PM MLB Baseball 901 St. Louis Cardinals/Cincinnati Reds* Under 7 -130 L Lynn - R Listed J Cueto - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.15 (WINNER) This line just dropped to under 6.5 on the reduced menu at 5 Dimes. You can still get it at -130 on Pinnacle. Both of these pitchers have been consistently shutting down opponents and both have been averaging well below 3 runs per game. Neither offense has been shooting the lights out so I see this one going under 7. The line at 7 is much safer than the 6.5 line as 7 is a more common # in baseball. Take the alternate total if you have to, take it at under 7. Lets Get It Rob Email: Tue, Sep 9, 2014 at 9:11 AM 9/9/2014 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 921 Baltimore Orioles* -136 vs Boston Red Sox C Tillman - R Listed A Ranaudo - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 0.74 (WINNER) 9/9/2014 7:10 PM Reduced Baseball 921 Baltimore Orioles* -1½ +125 vs Boston Red Sox C Tillman - R Listed A Ranaudo - R Listed Risking 0.50 To Win 0.63 (WINNER) The Orioles are hot right now, especially with Tillman on the mound. They have won his last 8 starts running all the way back to July 29th, he actually hasn't factored into a loss since July 12th. He holds a 2.81 ERA over 16 innings pitched vs Boston this year and the Orioles have been providing a healthy amount of run support, averaging 5.2 runs over their last 10 games. Boston is starting Ranaudo who comes into this game at 3-1 on the year but he has only won due to some great run support, his ERA sits at 4.63 and he got beat up in his last outing vs the Yankees. I like this to be a 5-2 type game for Baltimore. 9/9/2014 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 915 Kansas City Royals* +163 vs Detroit Tigers J Vargas - L Listed M Scherzer - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.63 (Loss) I have to go with KC here. The books are giving Scherzer too much respect in this one. Scherzers worst game of the year came against KC where they put up 10 runs over 4 innings against him. I agree that the Tigers should be the favorite here at home, but KC does hold a better record on the road and Vargas has pitched very well for them this year. I also give the advantage to the KC bullpen if this one is close down the stretch I like the chances of KC getting a 1 run win in the 8th or 9th inning. This is a great value play for 1 unit. Lets Get It Rob Email: Mon, Sep 8, 2014 at 8:38 AM 9/8/2014 10:20 PM Reduced Football 492 Arizona Cardinals* -2½ -110 vs San Diego Chargers Risking 1.00 To Win 0.91 (Loss) This on just dropped to -2.5 so I am going to lock it in as I really see this game as being a close one and I have to side with the home team in a big week 1 game under the national spot light. This is just a 1 unit play as there are some concerns about how the Cardinals will perform after the injury bug hit during preseason. On the other side I have the same concerns about how Rivers will respond to losing his offensive coordinator Ken Whistenhunt. I think this is a bigger deal than many people realize as Rivers developed dramatically under Whistenhunt's guidance over the last couple years. This isn't a slam dunk play but I see value in taking the Cardinals at home tonight for 1 unit at under a field goal. 9/8/2014 7:10 PM Reduced Football 490 Detroit Lions* -6½ -102 vs New York Giants Risking 1.50 To Win 1.47 (WINNER) 9/8/2014 7:10 PM NFL Football 490 Detroit Lions* -9½ +150 vs New York Giants Risking 0.50 To Win 0.75 (WINNER) I am making a 1.5 unit pay on the main spread here at -6.5 and I am going with another half unit on the alternate line at -9.5. I honestly think this game could get very ugly for Eli Manning and I think he could spend an awful lot of time staring at the ceiling of Ford field. The Giants offensive line is in shambles, combine that with the type of ruthless pass-rush of Detroit, headed by Ndamukong Suh and things could get very ugly for the Giants very quickly on the road here. Last year Eli lead the league in Interceptions throwing 27 of them on 551 passes for a 4.9% INT rate, with the O line only getting worse I don't see that stat improving much this year, and if there is one thing that leads to blow outs, its turnovers. On the other side of the ball the Lions have one of the deadliest passing running combinations in the NFL. Stafford now has a 2nd big time target in Golden Tate and they also added 1st round pick Eric Ebron. This should open up plenty of lanes for Bush to run the ball and make keep the Giants D on their heels. 9/8/2014 10:10 PM Reduced Baseball 972 Seattle Mariners* -1½ -120 vs Houston Astros B Peacock - R Listed F Hernandez - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.25 (WINNER) Seattle needs this win to keep their slim lead in the wild card standings. They are sending their Ace Hernandez to the mound today vs Peacock for the Astros. I don't think I need to rehash how good Felix is, but I can mention how bad Peacock has been, especially on the road. He comes into this game with a 5.01 ERA, when we look at his performance vs Seattle its even worse as his ERA jumps to 6.35 and he has also struggled on the road this year at 6.14 ERA. Overall I think this is a very important game for a very talented team in Seattle and I expect them to get a convincing win. Lets Get It Rob Email: Tue, Sep 2, 2014 at 10:16 AM 9/7/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 477 Washington Redskins/Houston Texans* Under 45 -105 Risking 1.50 To Win 1.43 (WINNER) Houston should be the most improved team this year. Their one two punch of Watt and Clowny is going to be menacing for opposing offences to deal with. I am still not sold on Houston's ability to put points up on offence, so combined with their defense I like this to be a lower scoring game. Further, looking at Washington's performance last year they provide that RG3 is just not the same threat without the option, and I really don't see them risking his heath this early in the season, so they will likely be limiting his running. During Washington's 8 game losing streak to finish last year they averaged just over 16 points per game, given they will be up against one of the best Defenses in the league I don't see them scoring much more than 13 or so, strangely enough when we look at Houston's last 8 games from 2013 they too averaged just over 13 points per game. Only way I see this one going over is if we get some fluky turnovers that lead to points, or some big special teams plays. 9/7/2014 4:25 PM NFL Football 485 San Francisco 49ers* -4½ -110 vs Dallas Cowboys Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 (WINNER) My 2nd NFL play for this week is on San Fran to cover the points vs Dallas. Dallas may have the worst defense in the league this year, looking back to last season they were 2nd worst overall, and they actually lost defensive players in the off season. When we look at Colin Kaepernick, he feasted on bad defenses, in 2013, and to make things worse for the Cowboy's, San Fran has Crabtree back in the lineup this year. The bad Dallas D, combined with San Frans offense and solid defense could make this a very ugly opener for Jerry's boys. Email: Sun, Sep 7, 2014 at 8:04 AM 9/7/2014 4:25 PM Reduced Football 485 San Francisco 49ers/Dallas Cowboys* Over 50 -105 Risking 1.50 To Win 1.43 (Loss) This line just dropped to 50. I am taking another 1 unit on the over for the same reasons that I explained in my email taking San Fran. Dallas defense is just dreadful this year and for them to have any chance of keeping this close Romo and Bryant are going to have to air things out a lot. Take the over and San Fran. 9/7/2014 1:00 PM Reduced Football 475 Buffalo Bills* +7 -108 vs Chicago Bears Risking 1.00 To Win 0.93 (WINNER) 9/7/2014 1:00 PM Reduced Football 475 Buffalo Bills/Chicago Bears* Over 47 -107 Risking 1.50 To Win 1.40 (Loss) I have to take the Bills here for 1 unit. This line opened at 6 and after moving to 7 has stayed there for a few days even with the books taking over 80% of the money on Chicago. There is something fishy about a line that doesn't move when you get over 80% of the money on 1 team. (83% right now as of 10am this morning) Looking at the matchup, the Bills have some improved receiving core which should be headlined by their 4th overall pick Sammy Watkins. Watkins is officially listed as questionable but is expected to play today. If EJ Manuel can stay healthy and develop some chemistry with Watkins I think the combination of run threat with CJ Spiller and Pass threat with Watkins could be a dangerous combination this year, especially with some play action. Looking at the other side of the ball Chicago isn't the defense it once was, and I am still not sold on Cutler as a franchise quarterback, he seems to get to caught up in the media and often doesn't come through under pressure. He will put up some points but I like there to be a few turnovers in this game and likely both teams will keep things close which should put the total over 47. I could very easily see this one coming down to a big play in the 4th quarter. Going with 1 unit on Buffalo and 1.5 units on the over. Email: Sun, Sep 7, 2014 at 8:22 AM I am adding one NFL Teaser play to today's Card. Confirm Teaser - NFL sides 6½ pts 3 Leg @ +150
I don't often play teasers on my VIP Picks but this combination doesn't include any of our other plays and each of the plays crosses a key number so it provides a great payout with some fantastic value. Lets Get It Rob |
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