Sports Picker VIP Results for 9-7-2014 (4-2 for +4.18 Units)

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Tue, Sep 2, 2014 at 10:16 AM

9/7/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 477 Washington Redskins/Houston Texans* Under 45 -105 
Risking 1.50 To Win 1.43 (WINNER)

Houston should be the most improved team this year. Their one two punch of Watt and Clowny is going to be menacing for opposing offences to deal with. I am still not sold on Houston's ability to put points up on offence, so combined with their defense I like this to be a lower scoring game. Further, looking at Washington's performance last year they provide that RG3 is just not the same threat without the option, and I really don't see them risking his heath this early in the season, so they will likely be limiting his running. During Washington's 8 game losing streak to finish last year they averaged just over 16 points per game, given they will be up against one of the best Defenses in the league I don't see them scoring much more than 13 or so, strangely enough when we look at Houston's last 8 games from 2013 they too averaged just over 13 points per game. Only way I see this one going over is if we get some fluky turnovers that lead to points, or some big special teams plays.

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9/7/2014 4:25 PM NFL Football 485 San Francisco 49ers* -4½ -110  vs Dallas Cowboys
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 (WINNER)

My 2nd NFL play for this week is on San Fran to cover the points vs Dallas. Dallas may have the worst defense in the league this year, looking back to last season they were 2nd worst overall, and they actually lost defensive players in the off season. When we look at Colin Kaepernick, he feasted on bad defenses, in 2013, and to make things worse for the Cowboy's, San Fran has Crabtree back in the lineup this year. The bad Dallas D, combined with San Frans offense and solid defense could make this a very ugly opener for Jerry's boys. 

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Sun, Sep 7, 2014 at 8:04 AM

9/7/2014 4:25 PM Reduced Football 485 San Francisco 49ers/Dallas Cowboys* Over 50 -105 
Risking 1.50 To Win 1.43 (Loss)

This line just dropped to 50. I am taking another 1 unit on the over for the same reasons that I explained in my email taking San Fran. Dallas defense is just dreadful this year and for them to have any chance of keeping this close Romo and Bryant are going to have to air things out a lot.

Take the over and San Fran. 

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9/7/2014 1:00 PM Reduced Football 475 Buffalo Bills* +7 -108  vs Chicago Bears
Risking 1.00 To Win 0.93 (WINNER) 

9/7/2014 1:00 PM Reduced Football 475 Buffalo Bills/Chicago Bears* Over 47 -107 
Risking 1.50 To Win 1.40 (Loss)

I have to take the Bills here for 1 unit. This line opened at 6 and after moving to 7 has stayed there for a few days even with the books taking over 80% of the money on Chicago. There is something fishy about a line that doesn't move when you get over 80% of the money on 1 team.  (83% right now as of 10am this morning) 

Looking at the matchup, the Bills have some improved receiving core which should be headlined by their 4th overall pick Sammy Watkins. Watkins is officially listed as questionable but is expected to play today. If EJ Manuel can stay healthy  and develop some chemistry with Watkins I think the combination of run threat with CJ Spiller and Pass threat with Watkins could be a dangerous combination this year, especially with some play action.

Looking at the other side of the ball Chicago isn't the defense it once was, and I am still not sold on Cutler as a franchise quarterback, he seems to get to caught up in the media and often doesn't come through under pressure.  He will put up some points but I like there to be a few turnovers in this game and likely both teams will keep things close which should put the total over 47.

I could very easily see this one coming down to a big play in the 4th quarter. Going with 1 unit on Buffalo and 1.5 units on the over. 

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Email:
Sun, Sep 7, 2014 at 8:22 AM

I am adding one NFL Teaser play to today's Card. 

Confirm Teaser - NFL sides 6½ pts 3 Leg @ +150

1. 9/7/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 471 Oakland Raiders* +14  vs New York Jets
2. 9/7/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 478 Houston Texans* +3½  vs Washington Redskins
3. 9/7/2014 8:30 PM NFL Football 488 Denver Broncos* -2½  vs Indianapolis Colts

Risking 2.00 To Win 3.00 (WINNER)

I don't often play teasers on my VIP Picks but this combination doesn't include any of our other plays and each of the plays crosses a key number so it provides a great payout with some fantastic value. 

Lets Get It

Rob

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