Sports Picker VIP Results for 9-4-2014 (1-1 for -1.09 Units)

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Tue, Sep 2, 2014 at 10:16 AM

9/4/2014 8:00 PM College Football 301 Arizona U* -7 -105  vs Texas San Antonio
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (Loss)

+ I am going to make an alternate point spread play at -9.5 once the line becomes available. This will be a 1 unit play and we should be getting odds around +140 for it. I will send out the exact pick once the line goes up. If by chance it is not available or you don't have alternate line options, then this is a 3 unit play on Arizona.

I am going with a 2 unit play on Arizona here. The Wildcats looked very solid in their first outing vs UNLV where they crushed the Rebels 58-13. Looking at the stats for the game Arizona was very solid on all fronts, Soloman smoked the Rebel defense for 425 yards and the Wildcats put up a total of 787 yards of offense. The defense played a bend don't break game allowing 371 yards but holding the rebels to 13 points. Another very important stat the Wildcats had only 1 turnover in the game which is a key stat in college ball especially early in the season. Texas SA got a big underdog win over Houston winning 27-7 as a +8.5 point dog. When we dig into the game the big difference was the turnover margin, Houston turned the ball over a ridiculous 7 times in the game, 4 interceptions and 3 fumbles. With Arizona's experience I don't see them giving UTSA that kind of turnover advantage in this game. My math shows that this spread should be closer to 14 points, but UTSA got a big boost in their strength due to the bad showing  by Houston. Snatch this game up early as I wouldn't be surprised if it moves up closer to game day. 

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Thu, Sep 4, 2014 at 9:21 AM

I am sticking with Arizona tonight -7 and I am adding a play on the under. I like this one to be a fairly low scoring game for College ball, somewhere in the 27-16 range for Arizona.

I haven't seen the alternate lines posted so we are going to stick with our play on the spread at -7 and I also like the Under tonight so I am adding a unit play there.

9/4/2014 8:00 PM Reduced Football 301 Arizona U/Texas San Antonio* Under 56 -110
Risking 1.00 To Win 0.91 (WINNER)

Note: There has been a lot of media hype about UTSA and their performance over Houston last week, i think its overblown and this is a situation where I am fading the public as I have more confidence in the Arizona supporting cast to come up big and get a solid road win here.

Lets Get It

Rob

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