Email: Mon, Nov 10, 2014 at 10:39 AM 11/10/2014 8:30 PM Reduced Football 273 Carolina Panthers* +7 +100 vs Philadelphia Eagles Risking 2.00 To Win 2.00 Best line at Bodog/Bovada (Loss) 11/10/2014 8:30 PM Reduced Football 273 Carolina Panthers* +265 vs Philadelphia Eagles Risking 1.00 To Win 2.65 (Loss) Today I am going with Carolina on both the Spread and ML. This is a really bad spot for Philly, they just lost their starting QB and now start backup Mark Sanchez. Sanchez came in last week and performed well, but that was one of those situations where they were playing a team that wasn’t prepared to face him. This week the Panthers will have undoubtedly researched his tendencies and be well prepared to shut him down. Carolina is also coming into this game off another Prime time game where they faced New Orleans on Thursday Night football 11 days ago. This means they got an extra 4 days to prepare, which is almost like a buy week. The value play here is on Carolina, lock it in! 11/10/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Hockey 53 Calgary Flames* +105 vs Carolina Hurricanes Risking 1.00 To Win 1.05 (Loss) 11/10/2014 7:05 PM NHL Hockey 53 Calgary Flames* -1½ +273 vs Carolina Hurricanes Risking 1.00 To Win 2.73 - Alternate Puck Line at Pinnacle (Loss) Calgary is 7-3 on the road this year and they have covered the puck line in 4 of those 7 wins. They are up against a Carolina team that they already beat 5-0 this year. Carolina had their 4 game win streak broken by Washington on Saturday now they face a very good Calgary team. Carolina seems to be a very streaky team, they started of the year with 8 losses in a row, then they won 4 games in a row, my prediction is we have another loss streak coming. Play Calgary on the ML and Puck Line. Lets Get It Rob
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Email: Sun, Nov 9, 2014 at 9:09 AM 11/9/2014 1:00 PM Reduced Football 251 Dallas Cowboys* -7 -110 vs Jacksonville Jaguars Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 (WINNER) I really think this line is still being influenced by the possibility that Romo may be injured. Even if he does go out early I still like the Cowboys -7. Think about the atmosphere in London, there are obviously going to be way more Cowboys fans than Jaguars fans. This would be closer to -10 if it was at AT&T, so we are getting some good value at -7. 11/9/2014 1:00 PM Reduced Football 254 Detroit Lions* -3 +103 vs Miami Dolphins Risking 2.00 To Win 2.06 (WINNER) I am backing the Lions to get a big home win over the Dolphins. This is the classic definition of a trap game for Miami, they are coming off a huge win 37-0 over a very good Chargers team. They are on the road against a desperate Lions team who is finally healthy. Take the Lions. Teaser - ties reduce - NFL sides 6½ pts – Line at BET365 (-120) 11/9/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 255 Kansas City Chiefs* +7½ vs Buffalo Bills 11/9/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 255 Kansas City Chiefs/Buffalo Bills* Under 48 ½ Risking 2.00 To Win 1.67 (WINNER) I really like this to be a low scoring close game decided by a field goal either way. The line has moved towards the Bills so we can now tease up KC and take the under here. I think this one is another 20-17 Bills game, but could easily go either way. Email: Sun, Nov 9, 2014 at 9:51 AM 11/9/2014 8:30 PM Reduced Football 272 Green Bay Packers* -8 ½ -105 vs Chicago Bears Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (WINNER) Only making one more play in the afternoon/night games. I am going with Green Bay at home. They dominated the Bears last time out and they are just a different team at home. This line moved from -7.5 to -8.5 this morning already with a lot of big bets coming in on Green Bay, that’s usually a good sign. We aren’t losing much value at all between -7.5 and 8.5 so we still have a solid play here. The Bears don’t have the same defense they did just a few years ago and they are just decimated with injuries. To add to the challenges the Packers have been Cutlers Achilles heel, as Cutler is just 1-9 as a starter vs GB throwing 19 Interceptions and 13 TDs. The Bears seem to get blown out by good teams this year, and I don’t see it getting any easier tonight at Lambeau. 11/9/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Hockey 5 San Jose Sharks* +150 vs Chicago Blackhawks Risking 1.50 To Win 2.25 (Loss) Today’s NHL game we are going with an underdog play on the Sharks, this is as much a play against the Blackhawks as it is on the Sharks. The Hawks have struggled to score goals lately and I think the books are giving them way too much respect against a very good Sharks team. Value is on the underdog here. Email: Fri, Nov 7, 2014 at 1:43 PM 11/9/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 258 New Orleans Saints* -5½ -110 vs San Francisco 49ers Risking 3.00 To Win 2.73 (Loss) I want to lock this one in before it moves any further, this line originally opened at -3 then started sliding after the 49ers lost to the Rams last weekend. I love taking the Saints at home, the 49ers are falling apart on defense, I just don’t see them being able to stop the Saints from scoring. Lay the chalk on the Saints at home. Email: Fri, Nov 7, 2014 at 1:43 PM 11/8/2014 8:00 PM Reduced Football 188 Michigan State* -3 -125 vs Ohio State Risking 2.00 To Win 1.60 (Loss) 11/8/2014 8:00 PM Reduced Football 188 Michigan State* -9 ½ +175 vs Ohio State Risking 1.00 To Win 1.75 – Alternate Spread from Bet365 (Loss) I think this is going to be a statement game for MSU. This is for all intensive purposes an elimination game for the final 4 playoff. Neither of these teams have played a quality opponent lately. The big difference here is that Michigan State has way more senior talent, and they get to play this huge game at home. This is a night game, in a prime time slot, Ohio State has a freshman QB who will be playing in the biggest game of his life to date, I really don’t see him being able to hold up under the pressure. I love MSU to cover here and potentially win this one big. Note I am buying the -3.5 line down to -3 for 2 units then I am taking the -9.5 line for 1 unit. I think this game will play out like the Big10 Championship game last year where MSU beat Ohio State 34-24. Michigan State is comparable this year, and I think Ohio State is much weaker. My projection MSU 38 Ohio State 24. 11/8/2014 3:30 PM Reduced Football 191 Notre Dame* +128 vs Arizona State Risking 2.00 To Win 2.56 (Loss) I am going with 2 unit underdog play on Notre Dame here, I have them rated as a far superior team on both sides of the ball. They have played with some of the top teams in the FBS including a game vs Florida state that they should have won. Arizona State is 6-1 but I really don’t think they deserve to be, they have fluked their way through a couple of games, including the game vs USC that they had no business winning on a hail marry at the end of the game. I could easily see ND rolling this game by 20 points just as UCLA did. Email: Sat, Nov 8, 2014 at 12:24 PM 11/8/2014 10:00 PM Reduced Football 193 Oregon* -9 ½ -111 vs Utah Risking 2.00 To Win 1.80 – Best line at Pinnacle (WINNER) This is Marcus Mariota’s final year at Oregon. He came back for one reason, to win a championship. They got the Stanford win last week, and I really think they have what it takes to roll Utah this week. For me this game comes down to the fact that Oregon is just faster and better, both on the ground with their run speed, and through the air with Mariota’s passing attack. Oregon will put up points and I just don’t think Utah will be able to keep up. I missed getting this out at -8 this morning and there has been a ton of sharp money coming in on Oregon. We really don’t lose much value between -8 and -9.5 so we still have a play here. FYI you can also look to Utah’s lack of ability to score, I just don’t see them being able to dominate the Oregon Defense enough to keep up, they are going to need some major turnovers to compete in this one. 11/8/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Hockey 53 Pittsburgh Penguins* -1½ -109 vs Buffalo Sabres Risking 2.00 To Win 1.83 (WINNER) I will be the first to admit we have had a frustrating week in the NHL, we had another winner slip away after the Ducks let a 2 goal lead slide away all in 53 seconds in the 2nd period last night. But even with those tough losses we are still only down 1.98 units in the NHL this week, and I think we have a great shot of getting most of it back here. The Penguins have everything going for them in this game and should have no trouble at all winning this one by at least 2 goals, and likely a lot more. Buffalo isn’t scoring and they can’t stop teams from scoring on them. Every stat points to this being one of those games that resembles an NHL team playing a peewee team. Take the Penguins on the Puck line for 2 units. Lets Get It Rob Email: Fri, Nov 7, 2014 at 1:43 PM 11/7/2014 10:05 PM NHL Hockey 10 Anaheim Ducks (1st 60 min)* -½ -108 vs Arizona Coyotes (1st 60 min) Risking 1.00 To Win 0.93 (Loss) 11/7/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Hockey 10 Anaheim Ducks* -1½ +168 vs Arizona Coyotes Risking 0.50 To Win 0.84 (Loss) Anaheim wins the vast majority of their home games and they almost always do it in regulation time. This is a great matchup for them and I love the fact that we are getting them at home coming off a loss against a sub .500 team that doesn’t play well on the road. Arizona is 1-4 this year on the road, they are giving up the second most goals in the NHL at 3.7 per game and they are up against a Ducks team that is allowing only 1.9 goals per game. This adds up to a very one sided game. 1 unit on Ducks in regulation and ½ unit on the Puck line. Email: Thu, Nov 6, 2014 at 2:10 PM 11/6/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Hockey 59 Pittsburgh Penguins* -1½ +200 vs Winnipeg Jets Risking 1.50 To Win 3.00 (Loss) I originally hesitated about making a play against Winnipeg who has been very good at home, but Pittsburgh is just too good and the trend is impossible to pass up. Teams are not scoring on them and they are averaging 4.6 goals per game over their last 5 games and they have covered the puck line in all 5 of those games, including quality wins over LA and on the road at Nashville and Minnesota. We are getting great value here at +200 on the puck line. 11/6/2014 7:05 PM NHL Hockey 51 Edmonton Oilers/Boston Bruins* Under 5 +105 Risking 1.00 To Win 1.05 (Loss) This one should go well under 5 goals, I could see this being another 2-1 Boston win. Edmonton is terrible on the road, especially on the east coast and they are missing Hull. Boston isn’t the same team they were last year, they seem to keep winning games, but its by 1 goals and often in OT. Edmonton hasn’t won a road game yet this year, and when they play defensive teams they seem to get shut down. Boston totals have gone 5 or under in 10 of their 14 games. I don’t see Edmonton scoring much in this one so a 3-1 type game looks very possible. Email: Wed, Nov 5, 2014 at 1:04 PM 11/6/2014 8:25 PM Reduced Football 110 Cincinnati Bengals* -6 -105 vs Cleveland Browns Risking 1.00 To Win 0.95 (Loss) Lets Get It Rob Email: Wed, Nov 5, 2014 at 1:04 PM 11/5/2014 7:35 PM Reduced Hockey 1 Montreal Canadiens/Buffalo Sabres* Under 5 -113 Risking 2.00 To Win 1.77 (WINNER) This one is a pretty strong stats and recent trend system play. Both of these teams are in goal scoring slumps. The Canadiens are averaging only 2.15 goals per game, while the Sabres are averaging a league worst 1.08 goals per game. Buffalo is allowing goals, as they average 3.31 per game, when we look at home ice they are slightly better 3 goals against per game. The Habs are scoring 2.67 goals per game on the road and allowing 3 per game. Looking at the most recent games, the Sabres games have gone under the total in 7 of their last 9 games, and Montreal has gone under in 5 of their last 7 games playing Buffalo and the under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games played. Montreal has scored a total of 6 goals over their last 5 games, including 2 games where they were shutout, Buffalo has scored only 7 and also been shut out twice. The bottom line is both of these teams are struggling on offense, and this should be a low scoring game. Email: Tue, Nov 4, 2014 at 12:34 PM 11/4/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Hockey 58 Boston Bruins* -1½ +155 vs Florida Panthers Risking 1.00 To Win 1.55 (Loss) Florida has struggled when going to Boston, and we are also getting strong value on this puck line play here. Florida is scoring only 1.56 goals per game, good for 2nd worst in the NHL. Boston is up at 2.69 which isn't tops but still good for a full extra goal per game. Boston has OWNED this match up lately. Looking at the 3 games played between the two in 2014, Boston covered the puck line in all 3 games, and outscored Florida 15 to 5. 11/4/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Hockey 53 Calgary Flames/Washington Capitals* Over 5½ +125 Risking 1.00 To Win 1.25 (WINNER) We are getting great value at +125 on this line, which I find very surprising given how prolific both theses teams have been on offense, and how bad they have been on Defense. Calgary has scored 36 goals so far this season good for an average of 2.76 per game, they are allowing 2.15. Washington has scored 34 or 3.09 per game and allowed 31 or 2.81 per game. The total has gone over in 4 of Washington's last 5 games and they seem to be playing a style of hockey that creates lots of scoring chances and pushes the scores up. Lets Get It Rob Email: Mon, Nov 3, 2014 at 1:38 PM 11/3/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Basketball 505 New Orleans Pelicans* +4 -108 vs Memphis Grizzlies Risking 1.00 To Win 0.93 (Loss) 11/3/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Basketball 505 New Orleans Pelicans* +160 vs Memphis Grizzlies Risking 1.00 To Win 1.60 (Loss) This is a Smart Money Underdog System play. We have seen a 2 point line shift come in on this game with fairly even public numbers on both sides of the game towards the underdog. We all know the public generally favors the home favorite. We have some big bets coming in on the Pelicans and I think we still have some solid value going against a Memphis team that has started off with 3 straight wins, and should be due for a letdown. 11/3/2014 8:30 PM Reduced Football 473 Indianapolis Colts* -3 -105 vs New York Giants Risking 3.00 To Win 2.86 (WINNER) I am officially going with the Colts for 3 units on MNF. The Colts lost their last game due to Big Ben throwing up a record game. If there is one thing the Colts seem to be good at with Luck behind center its bouncing back after a loss. The Colts are 11-1 following a loss since Luck started. Another interesting fact, Eli Manning has never won against the Colts in his entire career. In the end I think this game boils down to who has the better receivers, and I have to give the advantage to Indy, they are 1st overall in points scored, 1st in total yards and 1st in Passing Yards. Overall the stats say they should dominate this game. The Giants are 21st in points at 22.0, 22nd in Yards at 332.7 per game and 24th in passing yards at 219.1 per game. The Giants have been decimated by injuries and I just don’t see a 2nd string supporting cast being enough to keep up with the Colts. If you have accounts on both Pinnacle or 5Dimes and Bovada or Bodog you can get another middle play opportunity tonight as Bovada ’s line is off at +3.5 for the Giants. 11/3/2014 8:30 PM Reduced Football 474 New York Giants* +3 ½ -105 vs Indianapolis Colts Risking 10.50 To Win 10.00 – Line Currently available at Bodog or Bovada (Loss) 11/3/2014 8:30 PM Reduced Football 473 Indianapolis Colts* -3 -103 vs New York Giants Risking 10.30 To Win 10.00 – Line Currently available at Pinnacle (WINNER) In the NFL games, with a spread of 3 have historically landed on that number about 6.1% of the time over the past 10 years. This means that if the line is accurately set at -3 we are getting enough added value with these two lines to make this bet and earn a profit over the long run. We are effectively risking 0.5 units for a chance to win 10 units. This works out to a 20x return. This may seem a bit complicated. I am actually going to write a blog post to explain exactly how the math works, so check back to the site later tonight if you want to read up on it. For now, just trust me that the math works and it’s a good play. IMPORTANT NOTE - This 10 unit hedge play is in addition to the 3 units I already have on the Colts, as I think the Colts are the clear favorite in tonight’s game - Be careful to make sure you stay within your limits if you try to make this advanced hedge play, you don't want to get stuck with an open position on one side. I recommend making this play 1 unit at a time on both sides. If you don't have accounts at both or don't understand the play, just make the play on the Colts for 3 units. Lets Get It Rob Email: Sun, Nov 2, 2014 at 8:49 AM 11/2/2014 1:00 PM Reduced Football 463 Arizona Cardinals/Dallas Cowboys* Under 45 -105 Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (Push) This is an interesting one. Without Romo I don’t see the Cowboys having the same quick strike ability down field, but this likely means they will run the ball even more and ride Murray even harder, which means we with lots of run plays the clock will keep moving. Arizona isn’t an explosive team either, they play a very methodical game that tends to lead to lower scores too. So far this year the under is 5-2 in Arizona’s last 7 games, and it would be 6-1 if it wasn’t for the interception return in the Washington game in garbage time. Without Romo I think this game goes well under 45 points. 11/2/2014 1:00 PM Reduced Football 462 Kansas City Chiefs* -8½ -102 vs New York Jets Risking 2.00 To Win 1.96 (WINNER) I see some self-proclaimed wise guys touting the Jets as a great play this week, but I really just don’t see it. They haven’t given me anything to go on all year, they have been turning the ball over nonstop and even with Vick in as signal caller I don’t see them doing any better against a KC team that is 1st in the NFL against the Pass. Arrowhead stadium is NOT a friendly place to play. When we look at the motivation factor there just isn’t anything there for the Jets to play for. Their season is done. Rex Ryan is fired at the end of the year. This isn’t a game against a team like the Patriots or Broncos, I just can’t see the Jets caring about this game. I think KC gets a big cover and blows them out here today. Email: Sun, Nov 2, 2014 at 11:44 AM 11/2/2014 4:25 PM Reduced Football 468 New England Patriots* +3 -112 vs Denver Broncos Risking 2.00 To Win 1.79 (WINNER) takimg the points on the home dog here with the pats. Even with the injuries Brady has owned this matchup on home turf. i also think weather will be a factor. Brady throws a much tighter spiral than manning and it will be much better in the wind and cold. take the points lets get it Rob Email: Fri, Oct 31, 2014 at 4:01 PM 11/1/2014 8:00 PM Reduced Football 368 Kansas State* -12½ -105 vs Oklahoma State Risking 3.00 To Win 2.86 (WINNER) This on is one of my favorite plays of this weekend. We are getting Kansas State at home with a spread of less than 2 TDs. So far this year they have dominated teams at home (with the exception of the Auburn game which they shot them selves in the foot). Oklahoma state has been blown out 2 weeks in a row by West Virginia and TCU. In those two games combined they were outscored 76-19. They scored 9 and 10 points, and things don’t get any easier in this one as the K-State Defense is just as good as WVU or TCU. Oklahoma State has never been the same team on the road, and I really don’t like their chances of keeping this one close at all. 11/1/2014 7:30 PM Reduced Football 337 Texas* -5 -105 vs Texas Tech Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (WINNER) This line finally opened at -5 today. The books were holding out for more info on Texas Tech QB Davis Webb, but it doesn’t look like they are going to get it. He is officially listed as questionable. Based on how banged up he looked last week vs TCU I would say his chances of playing are below 15%. He was helped off the field with crutches last week and I really can’t see him being able to dance around in the pocket against a quality Texas defense in a rivalry game. Webb’s replacement Patrick Mahomes was terrible last week, after coming in during the 3rd quarter he went 5/11 for a total of only 45 yards. I do expect a week of practice to help, but Texas should have no trouble rolling this banged up Red Raiders team. Additionally Texas has forced 14 turnovers this year, including 11 interceptions, Texas Tech, also has 18 turnovers, so the combination should spell trouble for a young inexperienced QB in his first real start of the season. 11/1/2014 3:30 PM Reduced Football 391 TCU* -3½ -105 vs West Virginia Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (Loss) 11/1/2014 3:30 PM College Football 391 TCU/West Virginia* Over 36 -110 for 1st Half Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 (Loss) This spread line has been all over the map, it opened at -5 then jumped to -6 now its back down to -3.5. I honestly liked it from the beginning as I just think TCU is the better all around team. West Virginia is a powerful opponent especially at home and they already have a quality win over Baylor, but when you look at the difference between TCU and Baylor it hindges on the QB. Trevon Boykin is an extremely elusive playmaker. That is the key difference between he and Bryce Petty of Baylor. Boykin is a scrambler who can pocket pass if needed. West Virgina found already used their lightning bolt this year when they beat Baylor, I don’t see them being able to find that again here against a TCU team that is clearly focused on making the 4 team playoff. I expect this one to be close for the first half or so then TCU should pull away. I also like this one to go well over the 36 total for the 1st half. You may want to make a 1 unit play on over 36 now and wait for the alternate lines to open up tomorrow. I would take it as high as 42 for the 1st half and get some additional plus money payout. 11/1/2014 10:30 PM Reduced Football 385 Arizona U* +240 vs UCLA Risking 2.00 To Win 4.80 (Loss) I am making a rare 2 unit underdog money line play here. UCLA has looked terrible this year, they haven’t shown me anything that makes me believe they can keep up with a very, VERY good Arizona team. Arizona beat Oregon at Oregon, they know how to win on the road, and UCLA hasn’t looked good at home, which is where they lost to both Oregon and Utah. I am actually very surprised UCLA is favored in this game, they nearly lost to Colorado last week. Play the Dog for a shot at a huge plus money payday. 11/1/2014 3:30 PM Reduced Football 369 Indiana* +230 vs Michigan Risking 1.00 To Win 2.30 (Loss) I have to go in for another shot on an underdog against Michigan. This one could go either way, it really depends on how many turnovers Michigan commits. They haven’t been good at home this year, the Wolverines have lost 4 of their last 5 including 2 of their last 3 at home. Indiana is a sneaky good team that we all know relies heavily on the run. If the weather is bad, as it is expected to be, this could be a very close game. I am going with 1 unit on the plus money underdog. Lets Get It Rob |
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