Sports Picker VIP Results for 11-3-2014 (2-3 for +.36 Units)

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Mon, Nov 3, 2014 at 1:38 PM

11/3/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Basketball 505 New Orleans Pelicans* +4 -108  vs Memphis Grizzlies
Risking 1.00 To Win 0.93 (Loss)

11/3/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Basketball 505 New Orleans Pelicans* +160  vs Memphis Grizzlies
Risking 1.00 To Win 1.60 (Loss)

This is a Smart Money Underdog System play. We have seen a 2 point line shift come in on this game with fairly even public numbers on both sides of the game towards the underdog. We all know the public generally favors the home favorite. We have some big bets coming in on the Pelicans and I think we still have some solid value going against a Memphis team that has started off with 3 straight wins, and should be due for a letdown.

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11/3/2014 8:30 PM Reduced Football 473 Indianapolis Colts* -3 -105  vs New York Giants
Risking 3.00 To Win 2.86 (WINNER)

I am officially going with the Colts for 3 units on MNF. The Colts lost their last game due to Big Ben throwing up a record game. If there is one thing the Colts seem to be good at with Luck behind center its bouncing back after a loss. The Colts are 11-1 following a loss since Luck started. Another interesting fact, Eli Manning has never won against the Colts in his entire career. In the end I think this game boils down to who has the better receivers, and I have to give the advantage to Indy, they are 1st overall in points scored, 1st in total yards and 1st in Passing Yards. Overall the stats say they should dominate this game. The Giants are 21st in points at 22.0, 22nd in Yards at 332.7 per game and 24th in passing yards at 219.1 per game. The Giants have been decimated by injuries and I just don’t see a 2nd string supporting cast being enough to keep up with the Colts.

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If you have accounts on both Pinnacle or 5Dimes and Bovada or Bodog you can get another middle play opportunity tonight as Bovada ’s line is off at +3.5 for the Giants.

11/3/2014 8:30 PM Reduced Football 474 New York Giants* +3 ½  -105  vs Indianapolis Colts
Risking 10.50 To Win 10.00 – Line Currently available at Bodog or Bovada (Loss)

11/3/2014 8:30 PM Reduced Football 473 Indianapolis Colts* -3 -103 vs New York Giants
Risking 10.30 To Win 10.00 – Line Currently available at Pinnacle (WINNER)

In the NFL games, with a spread of 3 have historically landed on that number about 6.1% of the time over the past 10 years. This means that if the line is accurately set at -3 we are getting enough added value with these two lines to make this bet and earn a profit over the long run. We are effectively risking 0.5 units for a chance to win 10 units. This works out to a 20x return.

This may seem a bit complicated. I am actually going to write a blog post to explain exactly how the math works, so check back to the site later tonight if you want to read up on it. For now, just trust me that the math works and it’s a good play.

IMPORTANT NOTE - This 10 unit hedge play is in addition to the 3 units I already have on the Colts, as I think the Colts are the clear favorite in tonight’s game - Be careful to make sure you stay within your limits if you try to make this advanced hedge play, you don't want to get stuck with an open position on one side. I recommend making this play 1 unit at a time on both sides. 

If you don't have accounts at both or don't understand the play, just make the play on the Colts for 3 units. 

Lets Get It

Rob