Email: Fri, Oct 10, 2014 at 12:11 PM 10/10/2014 9:00 PM Reduced Football 105 Washington State/Stanford* Over 52½ -108 Risking 1.50 To Win 1.39 (Loss) Not a lot going on tonight, but I am making one play on the OVER in the Stanford vs Washington State game. Looking at Stanford thus far this year, they have played some teams with solid defenses, and we cashed an under with them on game vs Notre Dame last week. Given that they lost that game, I think they will take out some frustration on a Washington State team that really doesn't play defense at all. Washington State has one of the best passing games in the country with Connor Halliday who set an NCAA record with 734 yards last week. So we have a combination of Stanford looking to run up the score, and Washington State relying heavily on the pass game, I think this one has a good shot of reaching 53 or more. Play the over. Lets Get It Rob
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Email: Wed, Oct 8, 2014 at 12:50 PM 10/9/2014 7:30 PM Reduced Football 103 BYU/Central Florida* Under 46 -110 Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 (Loss) 10/9/2014 7:30 PM Reduced Football 104 Central Florida* -3 +100 vs BYU Risking 1.00 To Win 1.00 (WINNER) This is an interesting match-up that I expect to be exceptionally sloppy. BYU just lost their starting QB and Heisman hopeful last week to a season ending leg injury. His replacement Christian Stewart was terrible going 10 of 29 passes for 172 yards, but the majority of those yards were on 3 passes. BYU managed only 2 field goals after Stewart took over in the 2nd quarter. This week they face UCF who have their own offensive issues, but seem to have things figured out on defense. They held Houston to only 12 points last weekend, and with both teams being forced to rely heavily on the run game I think the clock will run we could very easily see a field position competition. Expect both teams to settle for field goals when they have the chance, and this one to yield a low score, likely with the home team UCF on top by between 4-6 points. Lets Get It Rob Email: Wed, Oct 8, 2014 at 9:46 AM 10/8/2014 7:35 PM Reduced Hockey 4 Boston Bruins* -1½ +168 vs Philadelphia Flyers Risking 1.50 To Win 2.52 (Loss) We cashed a boat load of games with playing the Puck Line on Boston last year, this year I don't think they have quite the same fire power, but the key thing that Boston does well is win puck battles on Defense and get lots of scoring changes. This combined with Philly's lack of defensive talent should get us win here tonight. Looking at the past 3 match ups from last season, Boston won all 3, and outscored Philly 15-6. Boston averages a +1 goal differential, meaning they should win by at least 1 against any given team, and looking at this game, they are at home, season opener, I think they come out and get a 4-1 type win. Lets Get It Rob Holiday Email: Tue, Oct 7, 2014 at 8:07 AM 10/7/2014 9:05 PM Reduced Baseball 932 San Francisco Giants* +122 vs Washington Nationals G Gonzalez - L Listed R Vogelsong - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.83 (WINNER) Today I am making a play on the Giants to close this series out at home. Yesterdays game was really a lot closer than it looked as a big error from Bumgarner was the reason Washington got things going in the 7th. The pitching matchup in this one is pretty much even, the big difference I see is at the plate, Washington hasn't been getting on base and is batting a brutal .172 for the playoffs. We are getting plus money on the home team, and I am sure the Giants will be motivated to close things out in front of their home fans. 10/7/2014 5:05 PM Reduced Baseball 930 St. Louis Cardinals* +155 vs Los Angeles Dodgers C Kershaw - L Listed S Miller - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.55 (WINNER) Here we have an interesting underdog play. The Cardinals are up against Kershaw who they have already cracked for one of his worst outings of the year. When we look at Kershaw's playoff record, he is actually a terrible playoff pitcher going 1-4 with an ERA of 5.20. He is up against Shelby Miller who has been a fantastic pitcher all year, but also struggled in his limited payoff experience in past seasons. Overall I think this one is a coin flip, and when we are getting +155 odds on a coin flip game its always better to side with the dog. Lets Get It Rob Holiday Email: Mon, Oct 6, 2014 at 6:55 AM 10/6/2014 5:05 PM Reduced Baseball 923 Washington Nationals/San Francisco Giants* Under 6 +110 D Fister - R Listed M Bumgarner - L Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.10 (WINNER) 10/6/2014 5:05 PM MLB Baseball 923 Washington Nationals/San Francisco Giants* Under 5 +193 D Fister - R Listed M Bumgarner - L Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.93 (Push) I am splitting this bet up as I really expect another highly defensive game tonight. We have 2 of the best pitchers in the business facing off. I don't think I need to spend much time explaining how good Bumgarner is, especially after his performance in the Wildcard game, I like to tonight to be another similar showing. Fister has proved to be another very consistent asset for the Nationals, he will no doubt come out focused and ready tonight with his team facing elimination. Fister comes into this game with a 2.41 ERA and looked outstanding in his last game vs Miami where he threw a complete 9 inning shutout. Additionally looking at the park factor, AT&T park is one of the most pitcher friendly parks in all of MLB. I could very easily see this being a 1-0 or 2-1 type game. Play the under 6 and under 5 for an extra unit. Email: Mon, Oct 6, 2014 at 7:50 AM 10/6/2014 8:30 PM Reduced Football 477 Seattle Seahawks* -7 -113 vs Washington Redskins Risking 2.00 To Win 1.77 (WINNER) This is not a good match up for the Redskins. Kirk Cousins is a passing QB, and he has shown that he gets flustered and makes bad decisions when under pressure. The Seahawks are best in the business when it comes to getting pressure on the QB and keeping coverage tight down field. The Redskins are a quality team coming off a really bad loss, but I just don't think they have the talent at the key positions to keep up with the Seahawks. When you step back and look at what Washington has accomplished this year it looks pretty ugly, they have a win over Tampa and Jacksonville and losses to Philly, Houston and the Giants... they haven't played a top rated team yet, and I think this is going to be evident in tonight's match up. Yes the 7 point spread is a lot for a road team, and but I wouldn't be surprised if the Seahawks come out strong to try to take the crowed out of this one, and given the Redskins performance last game, the home town crowed will be quick to turn on them. Seattle will be well rested and healthy after a week off. I like Seattle to get at least 2 picks tonight, which should make things very difficult for the Redskins to overcome. Lets Get It Rob Email: Tue, Sep 30, 2014 at 12:28 PM 10/5/2014 8:30 PM NFL Football 475 Cincinnati Bengals* -1 -110 vs New England Patriots Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 (Loss) Lock this in now. I am not sure if I will leave it open, but I am willing to bet that the public is going to be all over betting against the Patriots after last night's performance, so this line will move up to probably -3 for Cincinnati. Lock it in now, I confirm or recommend a hedge later in the week. Email: Thu, Oct 2, 2014 at 12:15 PM Wager 2 Team 6 Point Teaser (-110) 1. 10/2/2014 8:25 PM NFL Football 302 Green Bay Packers* -1½ vs Minnesota Vikings 2. 10/5/2014 4:25 PM NFL Football 474 San Diego Chargers* -½ vs New York Jets Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 (WINNER) Depending on the book they may shade the teaser lines to make this less profitable. See if you can find it at the same rate. If not, the key thing to make this bet work is to get Green Bay at -2.5 or better. You want to cross the key number of 3, if you have to go with a 6.5 point teaser to get it at -2.5 that's fine too, I looked around and San Diego is still offered at -6.5 or -7 most places so that works fine. Email: Sun, Oct 5, 2014 at 8:48 AM 10/5/2014 1:00 PM Reduced Football 455 St. Louis Rams* +4½ -108 vs Philadelphia Eagles Risking 2.00 To Win 1.85 (Loss) This play just had a big reverse line move, which means the smart money is on the Rams today. The line was at 6 this morning, there is 73% of the public money outstanding on Philly, yet the line just dropped to 4.5. When we see these negative line moves it indicates there are huge bets pouring in on the Rams. This usually indicates there's an edge or some kind of info that the public isn't aware of. Ill side with the smart money and take a shot on the Rams today. 10/5/2014 1:00 PM Reduced Football 464 Detroit Lions* -5 -105 vs Buffalo Bills Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (Loss) This line has been bouncing around between -4.5 and -6 today, I like it if you can get it at about -5. The Lions have a great Defense, they match up well against the Buffalo run game, and today they will be facing Kyle Orton who likely will not know the entire play book. So when it gets to 3rd and long they will be very limited in their play calling. I like fading QB in his first week into a new system. Play the Lions. 10/5/2014 1:00 PM Reduced Football 461 Houston Texans* +235 vs Dallas Cowboys Risking 1.00 To Win 2.35 (Loss) I am taking a 1 unit shot on the underdog here. I still think the Cowboys are way over rated. They have been playing well above where they should be for the talent they have on the team. Today they are up against a very good Texans Defense who will stuff the run game effectively as we saw when they went up against Buffalo. There is no way Romo has another game as good as the one he had against the saints. At over 2 to 1 I love the odds we are getting on the Texans here. Lets Get It Rob Email: Sat, Oct 4, 2014 at 7:24 AM 10/4/2014 12:00 PM Reduced Football 339 Marshall* -18 -103 vs Old Dominion Risking 2.00 To Win 1.94 (WINNER) I am going to lay the big number here with Marshall, they are coming off a buy week and should be fresh and ready to run all over Old Dominion who got beat up in the national spot light in a brutal loss to Middle Tennessee, at one point trailing 24-0. Last time out Marshall laid a beating on an Akron team that just beat Pittsburgh. The Thundering Herd are for real this year and roll Old Dominion today. 10/4/2014 3:30 PM College Football 379 Baylor* -14 -126 vs Texas Risking 3.00 To Win 2.38 (WINNER) Making a big play on Baylor here, this is a rivalry game, and Texas hasn't shown me anything this year to make me think they can stay anywhere close to Baylor. Baylor pushed for us last week even though they could have easily punched it in from the 5 yard line in the dying seconds of the game. They pulled starting QB Bryce Petty in the 3rd Quarter, I don't see them doing that today. This is a school Baylor recruits against, and I think they will be looking to make a statement today against a Texas team that can't defend and can't score. 10/4/2014 4:00 PM Reduced Football 336 West Virginia* -27½ -107 vs Kansas Risking 2.00 To Win 1.87 (Loss) West Virginia is one of the hardest places to play, and this West Virginia team is one of the best I have seen in years. WV has played some serious opponents thus far in Alabama and Oklahoma, those 2 losses should be expected, but they weren't by any means blowouts. WV has a quality win over Maryland and a blowout win over Towson. Kansas just got blown out by a mediocre Texas team. I just don't see them staying with West Virginia today. Lay the calk on the Mountaineers at home. 10/4/2014 5:00 PM Reduced Football 344 Northern Illinois* -25 -102 vs Kent State Risking 2.00 To Win 1.96 (Loss) This one is another total mismatch. Northern Illinois will dominate Kent State in every area today. They have a history of blowing Kent State out and looking at their performance this year I don't see it being any different. Kent Stats is averaging only 10 points per game, and the NIU Defense should have no trouble shutting them down. NIU is also coming off a buy week, and they will be looking to tee off on a weak team after getting blown out by Arkansas 52-14 two weeks ago. With NIU at home I think they runs away with this one early. Email: Sat, Oct 4, 2014 at 7:32 AM 10/4/2014 3:30 PM College Football 379 Baylor* -3½ -115 vs Texas for 1st Quarter Risking 1.00 To Win 0.87 (WINNER) I am adding another unit to the Baylor play. They are my favorite team for quick strike offense, and at only 3.5 for the 1st quarter I'll take this all day. 10/4/2014 3:30 PM Reduced Football 367 Stanford/Notre Dame* Under 46 -102 Risking 2.00 To Win 1.96 (WINNER) We have cashed a few under plays on Stanford and I am going right back to the well today. The weather isn't expected to be great today a bit of rain should contribute to a lower score. Both of these teams have a big focus on defense, when Stanford plays top rated defenses the Under cashes consistently. I like this game to play out very similarly to last week's game vs Washington. The under has cashed in all of Stanford's games this year and 3 out of 4 of Notre Dames games. UNDER today. Email: Mon, Sep 29, 2014 at 5:44 AM Fri, Oct 3, 2014 at 8:27 AM Middle play - IMPORTANT. Only make this play if you already made the first part of the play (sent out monday morning) with 3 units on East Carolina at -37. Otherwise this is a pass. 10/4/2014 12:00 PM College Football 327 SMU* +41 -110 vs East Carolina Risking 1.00 To Win 0.91 (WINNER) This line has bounced around -41 and -40.5 for a couple days now. There is 83% of the public on East Carolina, we already saw a reverse move from -41 back down to -40.5. I am thinking this line is probably going to settle here at -41. Lets lock in some profit and see if we can catch a middle if this lands between -38 to -40. Note we are still leaving 2 units open on East Carolina at -37 as this is the better side to be on. (Loss) I posted an article last week about NCAA point spread movement on teams that are 3-0 and 0-3 ATS. If you missed it you can check the article out here. http://www.sports-picker.com/sports-blog/ncaa-week-5-update-for-college-football-handicapping This week we actually have a perfect example of this in action. We have the 3-0 ATS East Carolina Pirates going up against the 0-4 ATS SMU Mustangs. East Carolina is coming off an impressive performance against North Carolina where they put up 70 points, while SMU is coming off an embarrassing 56-0 loss to TCU. This line opened at -34.5 and has already climbed to -37/-38, currently there is 98% of the public bets on ECU. Now everyone knows I believe in fading the public in most cases, but in this case we can ride the public emotional wave and let them move the line for us, then look to lock in a free bet. This one has all the makings of continuing to be a HUGE line mover. Lets jump on board early and see if we can lock in a free bet by weeks end. NCAA, American Football East Carolina 4-October-2014 9:00 AM PST Handicap -37 for Game -119 Risking 3.00 to Win 2.52 CAD - Line at Pinnacle Note I am willing to accept the -119 line to get this at -37 as -38 is a key number. Bet this now, I wouldn't be surprised to see the line climb above 42 by weeks end. Email: Sat, Oct 4, 2014 at 3:46 PM 10/4/2014 10:30 PM Reduced Football 416 Nevada* +140 vs Boise State Risking 2.00 To Win 2.80 (Loss) Looks like we have a great Saturday unfolding. I am adding one more play for the night game. Going with an underdog play on the home team here with Nevada. This game is always a barn burner, going to OT the last few years in a row. I am down on Boise state this year, I don't think they have things together and they haven't performed against quality opponents. Going on the road, playing a team they haven't performed well against in the past, I think we are getting great value on the underdog here. Play NEVADA ML. Lets Get It Rob Email: Fri, Oct 3, 2014 at 11:13 AM 10/3/2014 3:05 PM MLB Baseball 905 San Francisco Giants* +170 vs Washington Nationals J Peavy - R Listed S Strasburg - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.70 (WINNER) 10/3/2014 3:05 PM MLB Baseball 905 San Francisco Giants* -1½ +260 vs Washington Nationals J Peavy - R Listed S Strasburg - R Listed Risking 0.50 To Win 1.30 (Loss) I am adding another play here. I think the Giants are going to steal one of these games, looking at Strasburg, he hasn't been as consistent as I would like to see this year. He has pitched well lately, but with the odds we are getting here the value play is on the Giants. Email: Fri, Oct 3, 2014 at 8:27 AM 10/3/2014 12:05 PM MLB Baseball 909 Detroit Tigers* -102 vs Baltimore Orioles for 1st 5 Innings J Verlander - R Listed W Chen - L Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.47 (WINNER) NOTE - This is a first 5 Inning play Looing back at this season Veerlander hasn't been his usual self, too much in the media with his Girlfriend and not focused on baseball. But I still think deep down he is the same guy that won the Cy Young, and this is his chance to show that. Looking at his final few games leading into the post season he looked extremely focused going 8 innings vs Chicago white sox with only 1 run allowed. He was also starting against Chris Sale in this one and having watched the game, there were a few instances where he was clearly amped up. I this this is the same guy we see here today. He also pitched very well against KC the game before going 7.1 innings only allowing 1 run, which he actually left on 2nd and the you guessed it, bull pen let him down. This is the main reason I am going with the 1st half line in this one. Detroit has the worst bullpen in the playoffs, and I just don't trust them to close this one out. If this is close down the stretch, I definitely give the advantage to Baltimore. Looking at Baltimore, Chen has pitched well this year, but he has also been lit up a few times, and looking at recent trends it's the exact opposite of Veerlander, Chen limped into the playoffs losing his last 2 games. Facing a team with the offensive power of Detroit, I have to take the Tigers to get a few runs, in what really amounts to a must win game for them. 10/3/2014 9:35 PM Reduced Baseball 912 Los Angeles Angels* -1½ +140 vs Kansas City Royals Y Ventura - R Listed M Shoemaker - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 2.10 (Loss) For our 2nd play of the day I am going right back to the Angels on the run line. I watched the game last night and they played well, they just got robbed by a few crazy defensive plays by KC. Looking at this pitching matchup, I love Shoemaker, yes he is coming off the oblique injury, but to be honest, I think he was ready a week ago, the Angels just didn't wanted to give him some extra rest so he would be ready for tonight. KC hands the ball to Ventura who has been good but not great, he has a brutal outing vs the White Sox where he only last 4 innings, in his last official start, he also got banged up for 2 runs in his bullpen appearance vs Oakland... not something to build the confidence heading into a playoff start on the road. The Angels will bounce back and I like them to get a big multi-run win tonight. Email: Thu, Oct 2, 2014 at 12:15 PM 10/2/2014 9:05 PM Reduced Baseball 904 Los Angeles Angels* -1½ +124 vs Kansas City Royals J Vargas - L Listed J Weaver - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.86 (Loss) For this matchup there are two main factors that I see giving the Angels the edge tonight, first they have their Ace Jared Weaver up, he has the experience and the clear advantage over Vargas who has been inconsistent all year long. Second the Angels have the clear offensive advantage, and that combined with the home field advantage should take KC out of this game fairly early, especially if the crowed gets to Vargas. |
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