Sports Picker VIP Results for 10-4-2014 (5-4 for +.06 Units)

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Sat, Oct 4, 2014 at 7:24 AM

10/4/2014 12:00 PM Reduced Football 339 Marshall* -18 -103  vs Old Dominion
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.94 (WINNER)

I am going to lay the big number here with Marshall, they are coming off a buy week and should be fresh and ready to run all over Old Dominion who got beat up in the national spot light in a brutal loss to Middle Tennessee, at one point trailing 24-0.  Last time out Marshall laid a beating on an Akron team that just beat Pittsburgh. The Thundering Herd are for real this year and roll Old Dominion today.

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10/4/2014 3:30 PM College Football 379 Baylor* -14 -126  vs Texas
Risking 3.00 To Win 2.38 (WINNER)

Making a big play on Baylor here, this is a rivalry game, and Texas hasn't shown me anything this year to make me think they can stay anywhere close to Baylor. Baylor pushed for us last week even though they could have easily punched it in from the 5 yard line in the dying seconds of the game. They pulled starting QB Bryce Petty in the 3rd Quarter, I don't see them doing that today. This is a school Baylor recruits against, and I think they will be looking to make a statement today against a Texas team that can't defend and can't score. 

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10/4/2014 4:00 PM Reduced Football 336 West Virginia* -27½ -107  vs Kansas
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.87 (Loss)

West Virginia is one of the hardest places to play, and this West Virginia team is one of the best I have seen in years. WV has played some serious opponents thus far in Alabama and Oklahoma, those 2 losses should be expected, but they weren't by any means blowouts. WV has a quality win over Maryland and a blowout win over Towson. Kansas just got blown out by a mediocre Texas team. I just don't see them staying with West Virginia today. Lay the calk on the Mountaineers at home. 

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10/4/2014 5:00 PM Reduced Football 344 Northern Illinois* -25 -102  vs Kent State
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.96 (Loss)

This one is another total mismatch. Northern Illinois will dominate Kent State in every area today. They have a history of blowing Kent State out and looking at their performance this year I don't see it being any different. Kent Stats is averaging only 10 points per game, and the NIU Defense should have no trouble shutting them down. NIU is also coming off a buy week, and they will be looking to tee off on a weak team after getting blown out by Arkansas 52-14 two weeks ago. With NIU at home  I think they runs away with this one early. 

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Sat, Oct 4, 2014 at 7:32 AM

10/4/2014 3:30 PM College Football 379 Baylor* -3½ -115  vs Texas for 1st Quarter 
Risking 1.00 To Win 0.87 (WINNER)

I am adding another unit to the Baylor play. They are my favorite team for quick strike offense, and at only 3.5 for the 1st quarter I'll take this all day. 

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10/4/2014 3:30 PM Reduced Football 367 Stanford/Notre Dame* Under 46 -102 
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.96 (WINNER)

We have cashed a few under plays on Stanford and I am going right back to the well today. The weather isn't expected to be great today a bit of rain should contribute to a lower score. Both of these teams have a big focus on defense, when Stanford plays top rated defenses the Under cashes consistently. I like this game to play out very similarly to last week's game vs Washington. The under has cashed in all of Stanford's games this year and 3 out of 4 of Notre Dames games. UNDER today.

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Mon, Sep 29, 2014 at 5:44 AM
Fri, Oct 3, 2014 at 8:27 AM

Middle play - IMPORTANT. Only make this play if you already made the first part of the play (sent out monday morning) with 3 units on East Carolina at -37. Otherwise this is a pass.

10/4/2014 12:00 PM College Football 327 SMU* +41 -110  vs East Carolina
Risking 1.00 To Win 0.91 (WINNER)

This line has bounced around -41 and -40.5 for a couple days now. There is 83% of the public on East Carolina, we already saw a reverse move from -41 back down to -40.5. I am thinking this line is probably going to settle here at -41. Lets lock in some profit and see if we can catch a middle if this lands between -38 to -40.

Note we are still leaving 2 units open on East Carolina at -37 as this is the better side to be on.  (Loss)

I posted an article last week about NCAA point spread movement on teams that are 3-0 and 0-3 ATS. 

If you missed it you can check the article out here. 

http://www.sports-picker.com/sports-blog/ncaa-week-5-update-for-college-football-handicapping

This week we actually have a perfect example of this in action. We have the 3-0 ATS East Carolina Pirates going up against the 0-4 ATS SMU Mustangs. 

East Carolina is coming off an impressive performance against North Carolina where they put up 70 points, while SMU is coming off an embarrassing 56-0 loss to TCU. 

This line opened at -34.5 and has already climbed to -37/-38, currently there is 98% of the public bets on ECU. Now everyone knows I believe in fading the public in most cases, but in this case we can ride the public emotional wave and let them move the line for us, then look to lock in a free bet. 

This one has all the makings of continuing to be a HUGE line mover. Lets jump on board early and see if we can lock in a free bet by weeks end. 

NCAA, American Football

East Carolina 4-October-2014 9:00 AM PST Handicap -37 for Game -119
Risking 3.00 to Win 2.52 CAD - Line at Pinnacle

Note I am willing to accept the -119 line to get this at -37 as -38 is a key number. 

Bet this now, I wouldn't be surprised to see the line climb above 42 by weeks end. 

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Sat, Oct 4, 2014 at 3:46 PM

10/4/2014 10:30 PM Reduced Football 416 Nevada* +140  vs Boise State
Risking 2.00 To Win 2.80 (Loss)

Looks like we have a great Saturday unfolding. I am adding one more play for the night game. Going with an underdog play on the home team here with Nevada. This game is always a barn burner, going to OT the last few years in a row. I am down on Boise state this year, I don't think they have things together and they haven't performed against quality opponents. Going on the road, playing a team they haven't performed well against in the past, I think we are getting great value on the underdog here. Play NEVADA ML.

Lets Get It

Rob

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