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Sun, Jan 4, 2015 at 8:03 AM

1/4/2015 1:00 PM Reduced Football 6 Indianapolis Colts* -4 -102  vs Cincinnati Bengals
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.96 (WINNER)

This one is an interesting situation. The public is all over the Colts with 68% of the Vegas ticket count, the Sharps or “Wise guys” are taking Cincinnati which is what has held this line at 3.5 to 4 all week. Ill be honest, I looked at all the different angles I usually do and I just don’t see the wise guy angle.This line at -4 suggests that the Colts would be favored by 7 on a neutral field, which I guess may be about a half point much (and could be the angle) But when I look at this specific situation I think it justified. The Bengals have always been way better at home and struggled on the road.The Bengals as also a terrible prime time team, going 3-10 in prime time since they drafted Dalton and an even worse 0-3 in the playoffs.We had a big 4 unit play on the Colts in this matchup earlier this year (line was Colts -3) when the Colts shut them out 27-0, and one of the factors for that play was the absence of AJ Green, who happens to be out in this game too.

With Daltons main target inured, I expect the Colts pass rush to get to him and cause him to force a few balls into tight coverage. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few turnovers from Dalton. He threw up a few brutal passes in the loss to Pittsburgh and I think it will only get worse this week.

Looking at the Colts they are finally getting healthy, they have a health TY Hilton and Reggie Wayne has had a couple extra weeks for his groin to heal. Luck is a passing QB and he’s at his best at home.

For me this matchup favors the Colts so  we are going heads up with the sharps and taking the Colts here.

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Sun, Jan 4, 2015 at 12:00 PM

1/4/2015 8:05 PM Reduced Hockey 62 Chicago Blackhawks* -1½ +140  vs Dallas Stars
Risking 1.00 To Win 1.40 (Loss)

Chicago is on a roll. Since November 15th they are 16-4 and they have won 10 of those games by 2 or more goals. Dallas is a decent team but they havent played great competition lately. Over the same period they are 12-8, but 7 of those losses have been by 2 or more goals. They have beat up on some bad teams, but haven't played as well against good teams.

I like the Blackhawks to win this one and chances are if they do,its by 2 or more goals.

Lets Get It

Rob

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Sat, Jan 3, 2015 at 6:45 AM

1/3/2015 1:00 PM Reduced Football 273 East Carolina* +7 -105  vs Florida
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (Loss)

A few years ago i would never consider taking East Carolina over the Florida Gators, but this Gators team has been a mess all year long and at 7 points I have to take the dog here. This should be a lower scoring game as Florida is still solid on defence. I do have to question their ability to focus on this bowl however as they are coming into this game after dismissing their head coach Muschamp after a brutal season. I think East Carolina keeps this one close enough to cover and maybe even gets the W.

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Sat, Jan 3, 2015 at 11:15 AM

1/3/2015 8:15 PM NFL Football 3 Baltimore Ravens* +3½ -115  vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Risking 1.50 To Win 1.30 (WINNER)

1/3/2015 8:15 PM Reduced Football 3 Baltimore Ravens* +165  vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Risking 0.50 To Win 0.83 (WINNER)

Note – I am suggesting you wait to place your bets as this line looks like it will keep moving towards the Steelers, so you will get better odds closer to kickoff. You may want to bet half now and half later.

This is going to be one of those classic kind of smash mouth football games. Which means that the Stealers would have had the advantage if they had their star running back Le’veon Bell, but he is sidelined with a hyperextended knee from last week. I have watched a lot of Steelers football this year and the main reason Bell is so important is that he and Big Ben are always on the same page for the check down Ben knows where Bell is going to be and he almost doesn’t have to look. This type of chemistry takes time to evolve and I doubt the check down game on 3rd down will be as effective. The Steelers just signed Ben Tate to take Bell spot but I don’t think he will be the same dual threat. Tate had 9 receptions this year, while Bell had 83! Other story lines, are Troy Polamalu is expected to return at Safety for the Steelers. The weather looks gloomy with an 80% chance or rain (possibly freezing) which may make playing conditions a big challenging. I have to take the points and look for Baltimore to get the W.  

1/3/2015 7:05 PM Reduced Hockey 8 New York Rangers* -1½ -114  vs Buffalo Sabres
Risking 1.50 To Win 1.32 (WINNER)

Buffalo has lost 11 of their 17 road games this season by 2 or more goals and 10 of those 11 were by 3 or more goals. The Rangers are red hot winning 9 of their last 10 games. They did have a loss to Dallas a couple days ago, so I think they come back strong at home and beat Buffalo with ease. They are now in a wild card spot and I don’t think they will risk a setback in a must win home game against a weak opponent. 

Lets Get It

Rob

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Fri, Jan 2, 2015 at 9:07 AM

1/2/2015 3:20 PM Reduced Football 268 Tennessee U* -3 -115  vs Iowa
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.74 (WINNER)

This is another one of those situations where the SEC teams  should be able to dominate this game. They have played the much more physical schedule all year long and assuming they come into this game motivated to get the win they should be able to dominate the line of scrimmage and shut down a fairly limited Iowa offense.

1/2/2015 10:15 PM Reduced Football 272 Washington U* -7 -105  vs Oklahoma State
Risking 3.00 To Win 2.86 (Loss)

I have to lay the points with the Huskies here. They are the way better team. Looking at how OKST got into this bowl, they beat an Oklahoma team that had clearly given up on the season. The Cowboys offensive line is terrible, allowing sacks on almost 10% of their offensive pass plays. The Cowboys are also going to be without their starting running back Tyreek Hill who was dismissed from the program. Washington has dominated teams with bad records this year and I think this is a great spot for them to get a bowl victory. 

Lets Get It

Rob

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Wed, Dec 31, 2014 at 7:41 PM

1/1/2015 5:00 PM Reduced Football 261 Florida State* +8 -102  vs Oregon
Risking 1.00 To Win 0.98 (Loss)

1/1/2015 5:00 PM Reduced Football 261 Florida State* +275  vs Oregon
Risking 2.00 To Win 5.50 (Loss)

FSU has a lot of extra talent back on defense. I think they will be studying the Arizona tape to figure out how to slow Mariota down. There is a lot of value in both the spread at 7.5 or over (its been dropping) and the Money Line here. Lock it in asap. I am doubling up on the ML as i love the value at +275. I think FSU has a great chance here.

1/1/2015 12:00 PM Reduced Football 255 Wisconsin/Auburn* Over 63½ -105 
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (WINNER)

This one has another shootout written all over it. I doubt either team plays much defense. I do have some concerns about Aubrun being motivated to play in this bowl after last year, but I still think this one goes over. 

1/1/2015 12:30 PM Reduced Football 257 Michigan State/Baylor* Over 69½ -105 
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (WINNER)

I was hesitant to take Baylor until the showing TCU put on today. I think both of these teams will be motivated to score some points and run this score up.

Lock It In

Lets Get It

Rob

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Wed, Dec 31, 2014 at 9:23 AM

12/31/2014 3:05 PM Reduced Basketball 703 Miami Heat* +170  vs Indiana Pacers
Risking 2.00 To Win 3.40 (Loss)

This is a classic let down situation for the Pacers and the Heat need the win after a few bad games. Plus we are getting great value here on the ML.

12/31/2014 8:00 PM Reduced Football 253 Georgia Tech* +175  vs Mississippi State
Risking 2.00 To Win 3.50 (WINNER)

Going with another underdog play here in the bowl games. I really cant see MSST taking this game seriously after being in the playoff race for so long. I love the Jackets here on the ML. I think they will be way more focused and be prepared.

12/31/2014 4:00 PM Reduced Football 252 Arizona U* -3 +100  vs Boise State
Risking 2.00 To Win 2.00 (Loss)

Arizona has been a great team all year and they have played the much harder schedule. Boise St isn’t the same team it was a few years ago and I think this is another game the PAC 12 dominates.

Lets Get It

Rob

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Tue, Dec 30, 2014 at 7:10 AM

12/30/2014 1:00 PM Reduced Basketball 524 Ohio State* -8½ -108  vs Iowa
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.85 (Loss)

This one comes down to Ohio states defensive skills. I think they will be able to shut Iowa down and make them settle for low quality 3 point shots. 

12/30/2014 3:00 PM Reduced Football 243 Notre Dame* +8 -105  vs LSU
Risking 1.00 To Win 0.95 (WINNER)
 
12/30/2014 3:00 PM Reduced Football 243 Notre Dame* +275  vs LSU
Risking 1.00 To Win 2.75 (WINNER)

This game features two teams who vastly under performed expectations this year. LSU limed through their final few games of the season, and I really dont think their offense scares anyone, which is why I think 8 points is way too much to be giving in this game. I actually like Notre Dame to win this one and finish their season on a high note. Remember the Tigers arent the same team away from Death Valley and I wouldn't be surprised if they were doing some drinking in Nash-Vegas as opposed to focusing on this game. 

Lets Get It

Rob

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Sun, Dec 28, 2014 at 8:49 AM

12/29/2014 5:30 PM Reduced Football 240 Oklahoma* -4 -105  vs Clemson
Risking 4.00 To Win 3.81 (Loss)

Oklahoma is a way better team on both sides of the ball, they have a much better QB. I think this one should cover with ease.

Lock it in

Lets Get It

Rob

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Sun, Dec 28, 2014 at 8:25 AM

12/28/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 307 Indianapolis Colts* -6 -110  vs Tennessee Titans for 1st Half
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 (WINNER)

Neither team has anything to play for here. I expect Luck to play for the first half, get a decent lead then take the 2nd half off to avoid the chance of injury. The Titans are playing at home, so they may come back in the 2nd half against some starters, but I would be very surprised if they actually tried to win this game and compromise the #1 draft pick.

12/28/2014 1:00 PM Reduced Football 319 San Diego Chargers* +123  vs Kansas City Chiefs
Risking 1.00 To Win 1.23 (Loss)

12/28/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 319 San Diego Chargers* -3 +165  vs Kansas City Chiefs
Risking 1.00 To Win 1.65 - Alt Spread (Loss)

This one comes down to who has the better QB, and with Alex Smith out with a lacerated spleen, and Chase Daniel getting the start for the Chiefs, I have to give the best QB to the chargers. Rivers is also a fantastic December QB and he plays well on the road. The Chargers are also riding some momentum as they got the critical OT win vs the 49ers last week, you can be sure there are some discussions of the team of destiny around the locker room, and I think they come into this one very focused on getting a big win.

12/28/2014 1:00 PM Reduced Football 324 Washington Redskins* +230  vs Dallas Cowboys
Risking 1.00 To Win 2.30 (Loss)

Taking a shot here for 1 unit as this is a nothing game to the Cowboys. I really expect there to be a ton of running, probably a low scoring game. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Redskins pulled this one out in the 2nd half if the Cowboys start to rest starters.

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Sun, Dec 28, 2014 at 11:20 AM

12/28/2014 4:25 PM NFL Football 332 Denver Broncos* -9½ -110  vs Oakland Raiders for 1st Half
Risking 1.00 To Win 0.91 – First Half Bet (WINNER)

12/28/2014 4:25 PM Reduced Football 332 Denver Broncos* -14 -115  vs Oakland Raiders
Risking 1.00 To Win 0.86 Line at 5Dimes (WINNER)

12/28/2014 4:25 PM Reduced Football 332 Denver Broncos* -20 +195 vs Oakland Raiders
Risking 1.00 To Win 1.95 – Line at Bet365 (WINNER)

Making 3 plays on this game. I really expect the Broncos to dominate this one wire to wire as they will not want to leave anything to chance late in this game. Denver can secure a buy with a win here, and the Raiders are a terrible team on the road. The key thing that seems to fall apart is the Raiders O line cant pass protect on the road. Look for lots of pressure on Carr and look for Payton to put this one away early.

Lets Get It

Rob

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Sat, Dec 27, 2014 at 10:14 AM

12/27/2014 4:30 PM Reduced Football 233 Penn State* +3 -110  vs Boston College
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 (WINNER)

This line just moved from +2.5 to +3 and its time to take it. This one should be a very very evenly matched low scoring game. I am backing Penn state as I think they matchup well against BC. Penn state has one of the best run defenses in the country, and that’s BCs only real threat. Penn State is also very motivated here as they finally have the bowl ban lifted and can play in the post season again.

12/27/2014 8:00 PM Reduced Football 235 Nebraska/USC* Over 63 -105 
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (WINNER)

12/27/2014 8:00 PM Reduced Football 235 Nebraska/USC* Over 69 +175
Risking 1.00 To Win 1.75 (WINNER)

12/27/2014 8:00 PM Reduced Football 236 USC* -7 -116  vs Nebraska
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.72 Line at Pinnacle (Loss)

I love the over in this one, so I am taking it for 2 units on the Over and 1 unit on the Alternate over at 69.  Both of these teams play high scoring games, I think they are both going to come into this game motivated and given that neither team has played much defense lately, and they both seem to like getting into shootouts. I think this could be the type of game decided by a pick six or a special team’s score as both teams should be able to move the ball at will. I am going with another 2 units on USC at -7 as I also think the fact that Nebraska lost their coach will aid in the lack of focus on defense and lead to a high scoring 42-31 type game for USC.

12/27/2014 7:35 PM Reduced Basketball 507 Memphis Grizzlies* -2½ -102  vs Miami Heat
Risking 3.00 To Win 2.94 (WINNER)

This has all the makings of a classic let down game for Miami, they just got the big win over the Cavs 2 days ago, now they are facing one of the best teams in the NBA. Memphis has a great road game because they play solid defense, yes they are coming off a loss last night in Houston, but it was a very close game losing in OT. I think they bounce back today and get the W over Miami.

Lets Get It

Rob

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Fri, Dec 26, 2014 at 7:31 AM

12/26/2014 8:00 PM Reduced Football 225 North Carolina State/Central Florida* Over 48½ -105 
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (WINNER)

Going with the Over in this one, both teams have enough talent to put up points. I have this one in the low 50s at least. I think we are getting great value at 48.5. Yes both teams play some solid defense, but teams tend to pull out some additional stops in bowl games which usually leads to either an extra possession because of a quick score or a turnover. I just think a total under 50 is too low for these two.

12/26/2014 10:05 PM Reduced Basketball 820 Portland Trail Blazers* -14 -105  vs Philadelphia 76ers
Risking 1.50 To Win 1.43 (WINNER)

12/26/2014 10:05 PM Reduced Basketball 820 Portland Trail Blazers* -21 +250  vs Philadelphia 76ers
Risking 0.50 To Win 1.25 – Alternate Spread at Bet365 (Push)

This one has blowout written all over it. Philly is traveling out west the day after Christmas, I can't imagine how they will get up for this game. Portland beat them by 10 in Philly, I think they win by 15 easy in this one and probably win by over 21. I can see them pouring it on here for the holiday season home crowed, and I could see a long road trip slowing Philly down.

Lets Get It

Rob