Email: Mon, Aug 11, 2014 at 10:58 AM 8/11/2014 8:10 PM MLB Baseball 967 Oakland Athletics* -107 vs Kansas City Royals S Gray - R Listed Y Ventura - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.40 (Loss) 8/11/2014 8:10 PM Reduced Baseball 967 Oakland Athletics* -1½ +160 vs Kansas City Royals S Gray - R Listed Y Ventura - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.60 (Loss) This is a great value play, it's not often that we get the best team in baseball along with a top pitcher starting for basically even money. Sonny Gray is coming off a loss where he allowed 6 earned runs, needless to say everyone has an off day. I expect him to bounce back strong and stymie the Royals today. Recall Gray went 7 innings and took a loss to the Royals just over a week ago. I expect him to pitch them well again today but get some more run support this time. The Royals have been winning with Ventura starting but they have been putting up some runs to do it. Ventura is 9-8 on the year with a 3.47 ERA. I am going with the As to get a big win and another unit on the run line, remember they have been covering the run line in 83% of their wins since the All Star break. I like the As to win and the math suggests they get the win by at least 2 runs. Lets Get It Rob
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Email 1 (Early Game): Sun, Aug 10, 2014 at 8:46 AM 8/10/2014 1:35 PM MLB Baseball 926 Baltimore Orioles* -128 vs St. Louis Cardinals L Lynn - R Listed K Gausman - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 0.78 (Loss) 8/10/2014 1:35 PM Reduced Baseball 926 Baltimore Orioles* -1½ +165 vs St. Louis Cardinals L Lynn - R Listed K Gausman - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.65 (Loss) For the early game I am going with Baltimore to get another win today, they are red hot right now and with Caleb Joseph pumping out homers I like their chances of getting the home sweep of the Cardinals. The Orioles have won 10 of their last 13 games and scored 22 runs in their last 2 games of work. Email 2 (Late Game): Sports Picker VIP Night Game for 8-10-2014 8/10/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Baseball 906 Atlanta Braves* -1½ +190 vs Washington Nationals G Gonzalez - L Listed A Wood - L Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 2.85 (WINNER) This one is mainly a play against Gonzalez. After some excellent pitching earlier this year he has been struggling lately. He is winless in his last 5 games, including his last 2 where the Nationals lost 6-1 and 10-4 where Gonzalez gave up 5 and 4 Earned runs. Reading the reviews from his last two games it seems like he is struggling with his command and doesn't have the confidence he did earlier this year. This is the Sunday night prime time game so that should add some pressure to the situation. Atlanta is starting Alex Wood who comes into this game at 7-9 on the year with a 3.20 ERA. Atlanta gets the edge on pitching and I think this game should have some runs scored which gives us great value on the run line here at +190 Lets Get It Rob Email: Sat, Aug 9, 2014 at 10:54 AM 8/9/2014 9:05 PM Reduced Baseball 970 Oakland Athletics* -1½ -105 vs Minnesota Twins T May - R Listed J Samardzija - R Listed Risking 2.00 to Win 1.90 (WINNER) Today I am going with Oakland on the Run Line for 2 units. They are facing the Twins who are starting Trevor May who has been in the Minors for 7 years. I expect him to give a good showing but I don't think he will be much of a match for baseballs best team. To add to the challenge Oakland is starting Jeff Sasmardzija who has been excellent since switching to the As, leading them to wins in 5 of his 6 starts since the trade. Samardzija is limiting opponents to a .200 average and he isn't walking very many batters, which usually leads to a win when you have a team with Oaklands firepower at the plate. Since the All star break Oakland is 12-8 and they have won 10 of those games by 2 or more runs. I expect they will get number 11 tonight facing a less experienced pitcher and a Twins team that has a losing record on the road. Lets Get It Rob Email: Fri, Aug 8, 2014 at 2:21 PM 8/8/2014 10:05 PM Reduced Baseball 920 Los Angeles Angels* -1½ +115 vs Boston Red Sox A Webster - R Listed J Weaver - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.73 (Loss) I really like the Angels to bounce back tonight and get a much needed win to avoid a 4 game slide. They come into this series after losing 3 straight to the Dodgers. The reason I like them to bounce back is that they are facing a much less experienced pitcher tonight in Allen Webster. Webster has never faced the Angels but didn't look too good in his previous 2 starts where he issued 11 walks in 8 innings. Reading between the lines it looks like he let his nerves get the best of him and that never bodes well for young pitcher on the road. Webster's official record is 1-1 but he carries a 6.75 ERA which goes up to 8.4 on the road. Facing a team with as much hitting talent as the Angels should make this a long night. Jared Weaver gets the start for the Angels. He is proving to be one of the better pitchers in the AL. Weaver is unbeaten in his last 9 starts and the Angels have won his last 5 outings at home. Weaver is one victory behind the league leaders at 13 and I like him to get the W tonight to move into the tie. We are playing the run line as Boston has lost 10 of their last 14 games by 2 or more runs. Boston played a late game last night and they are on short rest with the Travel day and they are playing the late game on the west coast. LA will be well rested as they were already at home from the Dodgers. 8/8/2014 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 928 Baltimore Orioles* -125 vs St. Louis Cardinals J Masterson - R Listed C Tillman - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.20 (WINNER) I am taking the Orioles to win a close one here. St. Louis has been winning but just and last time Masterson started they needed a ton of offence to get the W winning 9-7 over the Brewers. I don't expect them to come anywhere near that total tonight when they face the stingy Orioles. The Os are starting Chris Tillman who comes into this game at 8-5 ERA of 3.87. He is coming off a 7 inning scoreless outing vs Seattle. The Os have gone 15-9 behind Tillman as a starter this year for a money line profit of +850. At -125 we are getting good value on the team with the better pitching. Email: Thu, Aug 7, 2014 at 11:10 AM 8/7/2014 7:00 PM Reduced Football 252 New York Jets* -4 +100 vs Indianapolis Colts Risking 2.00 To Win 2.00 (Loss) I am taking the Jets here tonight. My early preseason strategy mainly focuses on identifying teams that have uncertainty around key positions and a few key players looking to step up and have a big game. The Jets fit this mold today as they have 4 good quality QBs who will all be looking to step up and secure the starting position. This should lead to a pretty full game of high quality talent behind the ball which should lead to a win vs a Colts team who is likely to be giving starters limited playing time and even benching a few key guys. 8/7/2014 7:15 PM Reduced Baseball 972 St. Louis Cardinals* -1½ +130 vs Boston Red Sox B Workman - R Listed A Wainwright - R Listed Risking 2.00 To Win 2.60 (WINNER) I am going with the Cardinals to bounce back and get a big win tonight. The Sox pulled off the upset last night getting a 2-1 victory. Wainwright is also coming off a loss in his last start, which bodes well as he is a perfect 5-0 in games following a loss. Boston has been pretty cold recently they have lost 11 of their last 14 and the only wins they have were 1 run games. Boston is also starting Workman who has been pretty brutal this year. His is 1-4 in games he received a decision in. Boston has lost the last 5 games he has started in, including losing the last 4 games by 5 or more runs each. Boston is 3-9 in games Workman has started this year. I like St Louis to get a multi run win tonight. Lets Get It Rob Email: Wed, Aug 6, 2014 at 12:48 PM 8/6/2014 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 913 Baltimore Orioles* -110 vs Toronto Blue Jays W Chen - L Listed D Hutchison - R Listed Risking 2.50 To Win 2.27 (Loss) 8/6/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Baseball 913 Baltimore Orioles* -1½ +150 vs Toronto Blue Jays W Chen - L Listed D Hutchison - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 2.25 (Loss) This is a mid-week road system play. This system has netted over 40 units over the last 3 years by focusing on winning teams playing on the road on Wednesdays betting both the Run line and ML. At -111 this also basically qualifies as both a road dog system play and a road run line system play. Overall there are a lot of factors that line up to make this an extremely profitable play. We are getting basically even money (+vig) on a very hot team in the Orioles, they are starting one of their best pitcher Chen who is 12-3 on the year and the team is 14-7 behind him for a ML win of +825 on the year. The Os have a better road record compared to the Jays home record at 34-23 compared to 30-24 for the Jays. Looking at Chen specifically the Os have won his last 5 starts and covered the run line in 3 of them. He also hasn't lost since June. The Os have one of the best Bullpens in baseball right now so closing out a lead shouldn't be a problem. The Os crushed the Jays 9-3 last night and looks extremely confident at the plate. Looking at the Jays they are starting Hutchison who started the year off well but has struggled lastely allowing 21 runs over his last 5 starts and losing 3 of those 5 games. The 2 games the Jays did win they needed 5 or more runs to get it done which I think is unlikely vs Chen tonight. Additionally looking at the Jays batting, for the year they are 4th in the league in runs and 3rd in batting avg at .264. Looking at their season record vs Lefties they drop to 19th in runs and 27th in batting avg at .243 good for 4th last in the MLB. The Jays are in the midst of a 4 game slide and the Orioles have won 3 straight, 7 of 10 and 12 of 18 since the All Star break. Those of you who have been subscribers for a while know that my 4 unit plays are very rare and I only make them when we have a significant advantage in all 3 areas, statistical, situational and value based. Lets Lock It in and Lets Get It Rob Email Tue, Aug 5, 2014 at 1:12 PM 8/5/2014 10:05 PM MLB Baseball 965 Tampa Bay Rays* +125 vs Oakland Athletics D Smyly - L Listed J Hammel - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.25 (Loss) 8/5/2014 10:05 PM MLB Baseball 965 Tampa Bay Rays* -2½ +260 vs Oakland Athletics D Smyly - L Listed J Hammel - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 2.60 (Loss) I am going with the Rays here. This is largely a play against Hammel who has been terrible since being traded to Oakland. He comes into this game 0-4 in his last 4 starts with an ERA at 9.53. He just doesn't look comfortable on the mound since the trade. There is a reason Oakland traded for Lester, mainly because Hammel isn't getting it done. The Rays have been the best team in Baseball this past month and I like them to keep it rolling with a convincing win vs the As tonight. The Rays are starting Smyly who they acquired in the trade with Detroit. Oakland won a close one yesterday and I like Tampa to even the series with a big multi run win today. 8/5/2014 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 959 Detroit Tigers* -120 vs New York Yankees D Price - L Listed H Kuroda - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 0.83 (WINNER) 8/5/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Baseball 959 Detroit Tigers* -1½ +135 vs New York Yankees D Price - L Listed H Kuroda - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.35 (Loss) I am taking the Tigers to get a big win here tonight. They are getting their newly acquired Ace David Price who they acquired in from Tampa in a blockbuster deal last week. The Tigers made it clear they are making a run this year and will be looking to Price to provide some quality starts down the stretch. Price was 14-9 on the year with the Rays but won 6 of his last 7 starts before the trade. He comes into this game with an ERA of 3.11 which is actually down in the low 2s when you look at his last 10 games. Kuroda has been average for the Yankees. He comes into this game with an ERA of 3.98 and 7-7 on the year. Looking at his last 10 starts he is 3-4 with 3 no decisions. I like the Tigers to get a big win with Price on the mound tonight. 8/5/2014 10:10 PM Reduced Baseball 977 Los Angeles Angels/Los Angeles Dodgers* Under 6 +100 H Santiago - L Listed C Kershaw - L Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.00 (Loss) I like this to be another pitcher's duel tonight. I don't think I need to rehash how good Kershaw has been recently. Santiago is getting the start for the Angels, he has been solid this year and doing some relief work recently. I like this game to be another 3-1 or 3-0 type game for the Dodgers at even money on 6 runs I like the under here. Lets Get It Rob EMAIL: Mon, Aug 4, 2014 at 9:58 AM 8/4/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Baseball 909 Cincinnati Reds/Cleveland Indians* Under 7 -125 A Simon - R Listed C Kluber - R Listed Risking 2.00 To Win 1.60 (Loss) This is my playoff the day today. Both teams are starting Aces. The Reds go with Simon who comes into this game at 12-6 on the year with an ERA of2.84. Cleveland is going with Kluber who has been sensational since the All Star break. He is coming off 2 straight 9 inning games where he has allowed only 1 run combined. The fantastic pitching matchup combined with the struggles the Reds have had at the plate should keep this total well below 7. 8/4/2014 10:10 PM Reduced Baseball 911 Los Angeles Angels/Los Angeles Dodgers* Under 6½ -120 G Richards - R Listed Z Greinke - R Listed Risking 2.00 To Win 1.67 (WINNER) In my opinion this game has a very good chance of being a 1-0 or 2-1 type game. Both pitchers have been great this year. Greinke has allowed only 1 run in his last 15 innings pitched. He comes into this game at 12-6 on the year with a 2.65 ERA. Richards is 11-4 with a 2.74 ERA. This one has all the makings of a pitcher's duel. This game could easily come down to an error or one small mistake. Email: Sun, Aug 3, 2014 at 9:26 AM 8/3/2014 8:05 PM MLB Baseball 977 New York Yankees* -1½ +150 vs Boston Red Sox D Phelps - R Listed C Buchholz - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 2.25 (Loss) 8/3/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Baseball 977 New York Yankees/Boston Red Sox* Over 8½ -105 D Phelps - R Listed C Buchholz - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.43 (WINNER) I am taking both the over and the Yankees run line in this one. The Yankees should continue the feast on Clay Buchholz who has allowed 16 runs over his last 3 starts, including 7 in his last outing vs the Jays. The Red Sox are 2-8 over their last 10 games. The Yankees are looking to close out another winning series at Fenway. Phelps comes into this game at 5-5 with a 3.39 ERA. This game looks like it should be a 6-3 or 7-4 type game to me. 8/3/2014 4:10 PM Reduced Baseball 960 Los Angeles Dodgers* -1½ +120 vs Chicago Cubs E Jackson - R Listed J Beckett - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.20 (Loss) This pick comes from my Large Market Weekend Run line System. I am just going with 1 unit here as this one just makes the cut. I would love to get this line at +130 or more but I am willing to take it for a unit a +120 as I think this should be another lop sided Dodgers game. They are humming right now with and have a much better pitcher in Beckett starting ERA 2.74 and 6-5 on the year vs Jackson ERA 5.79 5-11 on the year. Make a 1 unit play on the Dodgers. Lets Get It Rob Email: Sat, Aug 2, 2014 at 8:17 AM 8/2/2014 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 925 Toronto Blue Jays* -125 vs Houston Astros R Dickey - R Listed B Oberholtzer - L Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 0.80 (Loss) 8/2/2014 7:10 PM Reduced Baseball 925 Toronto Blue Jays* -1½ +130 vs Houston Astros R Dickey - R Listed B Oberholtzer - L Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.30 (Loss) Toronto was due for an off night and I think they got it out of their system last night. Since the break they have been on fire. They went 11 of 13 averaging 6.2 runs per game and 10.9 hits per game. The main difference is they have some speed back in their lineup and they are finally cashing in on base runners. I am going with the Jays tonight. Dickey hasn't pitched poorly all year, the main problem was lack of run support. I like the Jays chances to get a convincing win in Houston tonight. The Astros counter with Oberholtzer who is 3-7 with an ERA of 4.30, he has been back and forth from the minors all year. The Jays shouldn't have much of a problem here tonight. 8/2/2014 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 903 Cincinnati Reds* +108 vs Miami Marlins H Bailey - R Listed N Eovaldi - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.08 (Loss) 8/2/2014 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 903 Cincinnati Reds* -1½ +158 vs Miami Marlins H Bailey - R Listed N Eovaldi - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.58 (Loss) The Reds struggled since the All Star break losing 10 of 12 before this series. But a trip to Marlins park was just what they needed. They seem to love this stadium they have won 6 in a row here and 9 of their last 10 including the first two of this series. When I look at the pitching matchup it again favors the Reds. I have to give the advantage to Homer Bailey who has pitched the Marlins very well. In his last 6 starts he is 2-1 with a 2.68 ERA. Eovaldi struggled recently over his last 3 starts he is 0-2 with a 9.92 ERA, and he only has 1 win in his last 9 starts. This one clearly favors the Reds who I like to keep their streak going. 8/2/2014 4:05 PM Reduced Baseball 915 Kansas City Royals/Oakland Athletics* Under 7 -115 J Vargas - L Listed J Lester - L Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 0.87 (Loss) This one looks like it's going to be a pitcher's duel but I am just going with a 1 unit play as Lester is fresh off a trade and that can always throw things off a bit. That being said I really don't expect there to be many runs in this game. Lets Get It Rob |
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